Strong earnings weren't enough to please Changzheng Engineering Technology Co.,Ltd's (SHSE:603698) shareholders over the last week. Our analysis found several concerning factors in the earnings report beyond the strong statutory profit number.

Zooming In On Changzheng Engineering TechnologyLtd's Earnings

In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

For the year to September 2024, Changzheng Engineering TechnologyLtd had an accrual ratio of 0.24. Therefore, we know that it's free cashflow was significantly lower than its statutory profit, which is hardly a good thing. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of CN¥388m despite its profit of CN¥213.6m, mentioned above. We saw that FCF was CN¥316m a year ago though, so Changzheng Engineering TechnologyLtd has at least been able to generate positive FCF in the past. Having said that, there is more to the story. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part. The good news for shareholders is that Changzheng Engineering TechnologyLtd's accrual ratio was much better last year, so this year's poor reading might simply be a case of a short term mismatch between profit and FCF. As a result, some shareholders may be looking for stronger cash conversion in the current year.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?

The fact that the company had unusual items boosting profit by CN¥95m, in the last year, probably goes some way to explain why its accrual ratio was so weak. We can't deny that higher profits generally leave us optimistic, but we'd prefer it if the profit were to be sustainable. We ran the numbers on most publicly listed companies worldwide, and it's very common for unusual items to be once-off in nature. Which is hardly surprising, given the name. We can see that Changzheng Engineering TechnologyLtd's positive unusual items were quite significant relative to its profit in the year to September 2024. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit a poor guide to underlying earnings power.

Our Take On Changzheng Engineering TechnologyLtd's Profit Performance

Changzheng Engineering TechnologyLtd had a weak accrual ratio, but its profit did receive a boost from unusual items. Considering all this we'd argue Changzheng Engineering TechnologyLtd's profits probably give an overly generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. For example, Changzheng Engineering TechnologyLtd has 2 warning signs (and 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) we think you should know about.

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.