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Why Suzhou Delphi Laser's (SHSE:688170) Soft Earnings Are Just The Beginning Of Its Problems

Why Suzhou Delphi Laser's (SHSE:688170) Soft Earnings Are Just The Beginning Of Its Problems

为何苏州德尔菲激光(SHSE:688170)软收益只是其问题的开始
Simply Wall St ·  2024/11/06 07:53

Suzhou Delphi Laser Co., Ltd. (SHSE:688170) recently posted soft earnings but shareholders didn't react strongly. We did some analysis and found some concerning details beneath the statutory profit number.

苏州德尔菲激光有限公司(SHSE:688170)最近发布了业绩疲软的财报,但股东们并没有强烈反应。我们进行了一些分析,并发现在法定利润数字背后存在一些令人担忧的细节。

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SHSE:688170 Earnings and Revenue History November 5th 2024
SHSE:688170 2024年11月5日盈利和营业收入历史数据

Examining Cashflow Against Suzhou Delphi Laser's Earnings

检查现金流与苏州德尔菲激光的盈利情况

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

用于衡量公司将其盈利转换成自由现金流(FCF)的一个关键财务比率是应计比率。为了得出应计比率,我们首先从一个期间的利润中减去FCF,然后将该数字除以期间的平均经营资产。这个比率告诉我们公司利润有多少不受自由现金流支持。

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

因此,负的应计负债比率对公司而言是正面的,正的应计负债比率则是负面的。这并不是要暗示我们应该担心正的应计负债比率,但值得注意的是应计负债比率相当高。引用Lewellen和Resutek在2014年发表的一篇论文:“应计负债较高的公司未来不太可能有高利润”。

Over the twelve months to September 2024, Suzhou Delphi Laser recorded an accrual ratio of 0.31. We can therefore deduce that its free cash flow fell well short of covering its statutory profit, suggesting we might want to think twice before putting a lot of weight on the latter. Even though it reported a profit of CN¥24.9m, a look at free cash flow indicates it actually burnt through CN¥192m in the last year. We also note that Suzhou Delphi Laser's free cash flow was actually negative last year as well, so we could understand if shareholders were bothered by its outflow of CN¥192m. However, we can see that a recent tax benefit, along with unusual items, have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore its accrual ratio.

在截至2024年9月的十二个月中,苏州德尔菲激光记录的应计比率为0.31。因此我们可以推断,其自由现金流远远不足以覆盖其法定利润,这表明我们在给后者赋予较大权重之前可能需要三思。尽管报告了人民币2490万元的盈利,但从自由现金流的角度来看,它实际上在过去一年里亏损了19200万元。我们还注意到,苏州德尔菲激光的自由现金流去年实际上也是负的,因此我们可以理解股东对其1.92亿元流出的担忧。然而,我们可以看到最近的税收优惠,以及一些飞凡项目,对其法定利润以及应计比率产生了影响。

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

这可能会让您想知道分析师对未来盈利能力的预测。幸运的是,您可以单击此处查看基于其估计的未来盈利能力的互动图表。

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

除了稀释之外,还应该注意的是,万集科技在过去12个月中因不寻常项目获得了价值人民币3.5万元的利润。虽然我们希望看到利润增加,但当这些不寻常项目对利润做出重大贡献时,我们会更加谨慎。我们对全球大部分上市公司的数据进行了分析,发现不寻常项目往往是一次性的。这正如我们所期望的那样,因为这些提升被描述为"不寻常"。相对于其利润而言,万集科技在2021年12月前的不寻常项目贡献大。因此,我们可以推断出,这些不寻常项目正在使其财务利润显著增强。

The fact that the company had unusual items boosting profit by CN¥8.1m, in the last year, probably goes some way to explain why its accrual ratio was so weak. While it's always nice to have higher profit, a large contribution from unusual items sometimes dampens our enthusiasm. We ran the numbers on most publicly listed companies worldwide, and it's very common for unusual items to be once-off in nature. Which is hardly surprising, given the name. Suzhou Delphi Laser had a rather significant contribution from unusual items relative to its profit to September 2024. As a result, we can surmise that the unusual items are making its statutory profit significantly stronger than it would otherwise be.

公司去年出现飞凡项目增加的810万人民币,可能在一定程度上解释了其应计比率如此疲弱的原因。虽然利润增加总是好事,但飞凡项目的大额贡献有时会降低我们的热情。我们对全球大多数上市公司进行了数据分析,发现飞凡项目往往是一次性的。这一点并不奇怪,考虑到名字即可明白。相比于其2024年9月的利润,苏州德尔菲激光公司从飞凡项目获得了相对显著的贡献。因此,我们可以推断,飞凡项目使其法定利润比起其他情况要显著增强。

An Unusual Tax Situation

一种不寻常的税务情况

In addition to the notable accrual ratio, we can see that Suzhou Delphi Laser received a tax benefit of CN¥6.9m. This is of course a bit out of the ordinary, given it is more common for companies to be paying tax than receiving tax benefits! We're sure the company was pleased with its tax benefit. However, the devil in the detail is that these kind of benefits only impact in the year they are booked, and are often one-off in nature. In the likely event the tax benefit is not repeated, we'd expect to see its statutory profit levels drop, at least in the absence of strong growth. So while we think it's great to receive a tax benefit, it does tend to imply an increased risk that the statutory profit overstates the sustainable earnings power of the business.

除了引人注目的应计比率外,我们还注意到苏州德尔菲激光公司获得了690万人民币的税收优惠。这当然有点不同寻常,因为公司更普遍的情况是缴税而不是得到税收优惠!我们相信公司对其税收优惠感到高兴。然而,事实细节是,这种利益只会在其确定性收入年份内产生影响,而且通常是一次性的。如果这种税收优惠不会重复发生,我们预计其法定利润水平可能会下降,至少在没有强劲增长的情况下会是这样。因此,虽然我们认为获得税收优惠是件好事,但它往往意味着法定利润夸大了业务可持续盈利能力的风险。

Our Take On Suzhou Delphi Laser's Profit Performance

我们对苏州德尔菲激光公司的利润表现看法

Summing up, Suzhou Delphi Laser's tax benefit and unusual items boosted its statutory profit leading to poor cash conversion, as reflected by its accrual ratio. On reflection, the above-mentioned factors give us the strong impression that Suzhou Delphi Laser'sunderlying earnings power is not as good as it might seem, based on the statutory profit numbers. Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. At Simply Wall St, we found 2 warning signs for Suzhou Delphi Laser and we think they deserve your attention.

总结一下,苏州德尔菲激光公司的税收优惠和飞凡项目提升了其法定利润,导致现金转化率较差,如同其应计比率所反映的那样。反思之后,上述因素让我们强烈感觉到,苏州德尔菲激光公司的潜在收益能力可能并不如法定利润数字所显示的那么好。请记住,在分析股票时,值得注意涉及的风险。在Simply Wall St,我们发现了苏州德尔菲激光公司的2个警示信号,我们认为这值得您的关注。

Our examination of Suzhou Delphi Laser has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.

我们对苏州德尔福激光的检查已经集中在某些因素上,这些因素可能会让其收益看起来比实际情况更好。基于这一点,我们对此持怀疑态度。但如果您能够集中注意力在细节上,总会有更多的发现。例如,许多人认为高股本回报率是有利的商业经济的指标,而另一些人喜欢“跟踪资金”,寻找内部人员在购买的股票。尽管这可能需要您进行一些研究,但您可能会发现这个免费的企业收藏具有高股本回报率,或者这份具有重要内部持股的股票清单是有用的。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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