Emdoor InformationLTD's (SZSE:001314) Weak Earnings Might Be Worse Than They Appear
Emdoor InformationLTD's (SZSE:001314) Weak Earnings Might Be Worse Than They Appear
Emdoor Information CO.,LTD.'s (SZSE:001314) stock wasn't much affected by its recent lackluster earnings numbers. Our analysis suggests that they may be missing some concerning details underlying the profit numbers.
Emdoor信息股份有限公司(SZSE:001314)的股票並未受其最近平平無奇的盈利數據影響太大。我們的分析表明,他們可能遺漏了一些有關利潤數據背後令人關注的細節。
Zooming In On Emdoor InformationLTD's Earnings
聚焦Emdoor信息有限公司的盈利
As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.
正如財務迷們已經知道的那樣,現金流的應計比率是評估公司自由現金流(FCF)與利潤匹配程度的重要指標。爲了獲得應計比率,我們首先減去一段時間的FCF和利潤,然後將該數字除以該期間的平均營運資產。該比率顯示了公司的利潤超過其FCF的多少。
Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
因此,當一個公司應記比率爲負數時,實際上這被視爲一件好事,而如果該比率爲正數則被視爲一件壞事。這並不意味着我們應該擔心正的應記比率,但值得注意的是,當應計比率相當高時,引用Lewellen和Resutek在2014年的一篇論文"高應計的公司未來的盈利能力較差"。
For the year to September 2024, Emdoor InformationLTD had an accrual ratio of 0.33. Unfortunately, that means its free cash flow was a lot less than its statutory profit, which makes us doubt the utility of profit as a guide. Over the last year it actually had negative free cash flow of CN¥220m, in contrast to the aforementioned profit of CN¥54.8m. We also note that Emdoor InformationLTD's free cash flow was actually negative last year as well, so we could understand if shareholders were bothered by its outflow of CN¥220m. However, we can see that a recent tax benefit, along with unusual items, have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore its accrual ratio.
截至2024年9月,Emdoor信息有限公司的計提比率爲0.33。不幸的是,這意味着它的自由現金流遠遠小於其法定利潤,這讓我們對利潤作爲指導的實用性產生了懷疑。過去一年,其實際自由現金流爲人民幣22000萬負值,與前述5480萬人民幣的利潤形成對照。我們還注意到Emdoor信息有限公司去年的自由現金流實際上也是負值,因此我們可以理解股東們對其22000萬人民幣的流出感到困擾。然而,我們可以看到最近的稅收優惠以及飛凡事項已經影響了其法定利潤,從而影響了其計提比率。
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
這可能會讓您想知道分析師對未來盈利能力的預測。幸運的是,您可以單擊此處查看基於其估計的未來盈利能力的互動圖表。
The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit
除了稀釋之外,還應該注意的是,萬集科技在過去12個月中因不尋常項目獲得了價值人民幣3.5萬元的利潤。雖然我們希望看到利潤增加,但當這些不尋常項目對利潤做出重大貢獻時,我們會更加謹慎。我們對全球大部分上市公司的數據進行了分析,發現不尋常項目往往是一次性的。這正如我們所期望的那樣,因爲這些提升被描述爲"不尋常"。相對於其利潤而言,萬集科技在2021年12月前的不尋常項目貢獻大。因此,我們可以推斷出,這些不尋常項目正在使其財務利潤顯著增強。
The fact that the company had unusual items boosting profit by CN¥19m, in the last year, probably goes some way to explain why its accrual ratio was so weak. While we like to see profit increases, we tend to be a little more cautious when unusual items have made a big contribution. When we crunched the numbers on thousands of publicly listed companies, we found that a boost from unusual items in a given year is often not repeated the next year. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. We can see that Emdoor InformationLTD's positive unusual items were quite significant relative to its profit in the year to September 2024. As a result, we can surmise that the unusual items are making its statutory profit significantly stronger than it would otherwise be.
公司在上一年度因飛凡項目推動利潤增加了1900萬元人民幣,這可能部分解釋了爲什麼其應計比率如此低。雖然我們喜歡看到利潤增加,但當飛凡項目對其貢獻較大時,我們往往會更加謹慎。當我們對成千上萬家上市公司的數字進行分析時,發現在某一年受益於飛凡項目的增長往往不會在下一年重複。這是出乎意料的,因爲這些受益被描述爲「飛凡」。我們可以看到Emdoor InformationLTD在2024年9月的年報中飛凡項目對其利潤的積極影響相對重要。因此,我們可以推測飛凡項目正在使其法定利潤明顯強於其原本水平。
An Unusual Tax Situation
一種不尋常的稅務情況
In addition to the notable accrual ratio, we can see that Emdoor InformationLTD received a tax benefit of CN¥23m. It's always a bit noteworthy when a company is paid by the tax man, rather than paying the tax man. Of course, prima facie it's great to receive a tax benefit. However, the devil in the detail is that these kind of benefits only impact in the year they are booked, and are often one-off in nature. In the likely event the tax benefit is not repeated, we'd expect to see its statutory profit levels drop, at least in the absence of strong growth.
除了引人注目的應計比率外,我們還看到Emdoor InformationLTD獲得了2300萬元的稅收收益。當公司獲得與向稅務人員繳稅相反的情況時,這總是略顯值得注意的。當然,一開始獲得稅收收益是很好的。然而,問題的關鍵在於這種利益只在登記年內產生影響,並且往往是一次性的。在稅收收益未能重複的情況下,我們預計其法定利潤水平將下降,至少在沒有強勁增長的情況下。
Our Take On Emdoor InformationLTD's Profit Performance
我們對Emdoor InformationLTD的利潤表現的看法
Summing up, Emdoor InformationLTD's tax benefit and unusual items boosted its statutory profit leading to poor cash conversion, as reflected by its accrual ratio. For all the reasons mentioned above, we think that, at a glance, Emdoor InformationLTD's statutory profits could be considered to be low quality, because they are likely to give investors an overly positive impression of the company. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Emdoor InformationLTD at this point in time. When we did our research, we found 4 warning signs for Emdoor InformationLTD (2 can't be ignored!) that we believe deserve your full attention.
總結一下,Emdoor InformationLTD的稅收收益和飛凡項目推動了其法定利潤,導致現金轉換狀況糟糕,正如其應計比率所反映的。基於上述所有原因,我們認爲,乍一看,Emdoor InformationLTD的法定利潤可能被認爲是低質量的,因爲它們可能會給投資者一個過於積極的印象。因此,儘管盈利質量很重要,但在目前這個時刻考慮到Emdoor InformationLTD所面臨的風險同樣重要。當我們進行研究時,我們發現了Emdoor InformationLTD的4個警示信號(其中2個不容忽視!)我們認爲這些值得您充分關注。
Our examination of Emdoor InformationLTD has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.
我們對Emdoor InformationLTD的審查側重於一些因素,這些因素可能使其收入看起來比實際情況更好。基於這一點,我們有些懷疑。但如果您能夠專注於細枝末節,總是能發現更多。例如,許多人將高淨資產回報視爲有利的商業經濟指標,而其他人則喜歡『追蹤資金』,尋找內部人員正在買入的股票。雖然這可能需要您做一些調查研究,您可能會發現這些擁有高淨資產回報的公司的免費收藏,或者擁有重要內部持股的股票清單對您有幫助。
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