Emdoor InformationLTD's (SZSE:001314) Weak Earnings Might Be Worse Than They Appear
Emdoor InformationLTD's (SZSE:001314) Weak Earnings Might Be Worse Than They Appear
Emdoor Information CO.,LTD.'s (SZSE:001314) stock wasn't much affected by its recent lackluster earnings numbers. Our analysis suggests that they may be missing some concerning details underlying the profit numbers.
Emdoor信息股份有限公司(SZSE:001314)的股票并未受其最近平平无奇的盈利数据影响太大。我们的分析表明,他们可能遗漏了一些有关利润数据背后令人关注的细节。
Zooming In On Emdoor InformationLTD's Earnings
聚焦Emdoor信息有限公司的盈利
As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.
正如财务迷们已经知道的那样,现金流的应计比率是评估公司自由现金流(FCF)与利润匹配程度的重要指标。为了获得应计比率,我们首先减去一段时间的FCF和利润,然后将该数字除以该期间的平均营运资产。该比率显示了公司的利润超过其FCF的多少。
Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
因此,当一个公司应记比率为负数时,实际上这被视为一件好事,而如果该比率为正数则被视为一件坏事。这并不意味着我们应该担心正的应记比率,但值得注意的是,当应计比率相当高时,引用Lewellen和Resutek在2014年的一篇论文"高应计的公司未来的盈利能力较差"。
For the year to September 2024, Emdoor InformationLTD had an accrual ratio of 0.33. Unfortunately, that means its free cash flow was a lot less than its statutory profit, which makes us doubt the utility of profit as a guide. Over the last year it actually had negative free cash flow of CN¥220m, in contrast to the aforementioned profit of CN¥54.8m. We also note that Emdoor InformationLTD's free cash flow was actually negative last year as well, so we could understand if shareholders were bothered by its outflow of CN¥220m. However, we can see that a recent tax benefit, along with unusual items, have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore its accrual ratio.
截至2024年9月,Emdoor信息有限公司的计提比率为0.33。不幸的是,这意味着它的自由现金流远远小于其法定利润,这让我们对利润作为指导的实用性产生了怀疑。过去一年,其实际自由现金流为人民币22000万负值,与前述5480万人民币的利润形成对照。我们还注意到Emdoor信息有限公司去年的自由现金流实际上也是负值,因此我们可以理解股东们对其22000万人民币的流出感到困扰。然而,我们可以看到最近的税收优惠以及飞凡事项已经影响了其法定利润,从而影响了其计提比率。
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
这可能会让您想知道分析师对未来盈利能力的预测。幸运的是,您可以单击此处查看基于其估计的未来盈利能力的互动图表。
The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit
除了稀释之外,还应该注意的是,万集科技在过去12个月中因不寻常项目获得了价值人民币3.5万元的利润。虽然我们希望看到利润增加,但当这些不寻常项目对利润做出重大贡献时,我们会更加谨慎。我们对全球大部分上市公司的数据进行了分析,发现不寻常项目往往是一次性的。这正如我们所期望的那样,因为这些提升被描述为"不寻常"。相对于其利润而言,万集科技在2021年12月前的不寻常项目贡献大。因此,我们可以推断出,这些不寻常项目正在使其财务利润显著增强。
The fact that the company had unusual items boosting profit by CN¥19m, in the last year, probably goes some way to explain why its accrual ratio was so weak. While we like to see profit increases, we tend to be a little more cautious when unusual items have made a big contribution. When we crunched the numbers on thousands of publicly listed companies, we found that a boost from unusual items in a given year is often not repeated the next year. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. We can see that Emdoor InformationLTD's positive unusual items were quite significant relative to its profit in the year to September 2024. As a result, we can surmise that the unusual items are making its statutory profit significantly stronger than it would otherwise be.
公司在上一年度因飞凡项目推动利润增加了1900万元人民币,这可能部分解释了为什么其应计比率如此低。虽然我们喜欢看到利润增加,但当飞凡项目对其贡献较大时,我们往往会更加谨慎。当我们对成千上万家上市公司的数字进行分析时,发现在某一年受益于飞凡项目的增长往往不会在下一年重复。这是出乎意料的,因为这些受益被描述为“飞凡”。我们可以看到Emdoor InformationLTD在2024年9月的年报中飞凡项目对其利润的积极影响相对重要。因此,我们可以推测飞凡项目正在使其法定利润明显强于其原本水平。
An Unusual Tax Situation
一种不寻常的税务情况
In addition to the notable accrual ratio, we can see that Emdoor InformationLTD received a tax benefit of CN¥23m. It's always a bit noteworthy when a company is paid by the tax man, rather than paying the tax man. Of course, prima facie it's great to receive a tax benefit. However, the devil in the detail is that these kind of benefits only impact in the year they are booked, and are often one-off in nature. In the likely event the tax benefit is not repeated, we'd expect to see its statutory profit levels drop, at least in the absence of strong growth.
除了引人注目的应计比率外,我们还看到Emdoor InformationLTD获得了2300万元的税收收益。当公司获得与向税务人员缴税相反的情况时,这总是略显值得注意的。当然,一开始获得税收收益是很好的。然而,问题的关键在于这种利益只在登记年内产生影响,并且往往是一次性的。在税收收益未能重复的情况下,我们预计其法定利润水平将下降,至少在没有强劲增长的情况下。
Our Take On Emdoor InformationLTD's Profit Performance
我们对Emdoor InformationLTD的利润表现的看法
Summing up, Emdoor InformationLTD's tax benefit and unusual items boosted its statutory profit leading to poor cash conversion, as reflected by its accrual ratio. For all the reasons mentioned above, we think that, at a glance, Emdoor InformationLTD's statutory profits could be considered to be low quality, because they are likely to give investors an overly positive impression of the company. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Emdoor InformationLTD at this point in time. When we did our research, we found 4 warning signs for Emdoor InformationLTD (2 can't be ignored!) that we believe deserve your full attention.
总结一下,Emdoor InformationLTD的税收收益和飞凡项目推动了其法定利润,导致现金转换状况糟糕,正如其应计比率所反映的。基于上述所有原因,我们认为,乍一看,Emdoor InformationLTD的法定利润可能被认为是低质量的,因为它们可能会给投资者一个过于积极的印象。因此,尽管盈利质量很重要,但在目前这个时刻考虑到Emdoor InformationLTD所面临的风险同样重要。当我们进行研究时,我们发现了Emdoor InformationLTD的4个警示信号(其中2个不容忽视!)我们认为这些值得您充分关注。
Our examination of Emdoor InformationLTD has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.
我们对Emdoor InformationLTD的审查侧重于一些因素,这些因素可能使其收入看起来比实际情况更好。基于这一点,我们有些怀疑。但如果您能够专注于细枝末节,总是能发现更多。例如,许多人将高净资产回报视为有利的商业经济指标,而其他人则喜欢‘追踪资金’,寻找内部人员正在买入的股票。虽然这可能需要您做一些调查研究,您可能会发现这些拥有高净资产回报的公司的免费收藏,或者拥有重要内部持股的股票清单对您有帮助。
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