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Freewon ChinaLtd's (SHSE:688678) Profits May Not Reveal Underlying Issues

Freewon ChinaLtd's (SHSE:688678) Profits May Not Reveal Underlying Issues

Freewon ChinaLtd(SHSE:688678)的利润可能未能揭示潜在问题
Simply Wall St ·  11/06 08:58

The stock price didn't jump after Freewon China Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:688678) posted decent earnings last week. We did some digging and believe investors may be worried about some underlying factors in the report.

上周,福立旺中国股份有限公司(SHSE:688678)发布了不错的季度业绩后,股票价格并未大幅上涨。我们进行了一些调查,认为投资者可能担心报告中一些潜在因素。

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SHSE:688678 Earnings and Revenue History November 6th 2024
SHSE:688678的盈利和营业收入历史数据 2024年11月6日

Zooming In On Freewon ChinaLtd's Earnings

深入了解福立旺中国股份有限公司的盈利情况

Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

很多投资者没有听说过现金流量的应计比率,但它实际上是一个衡量公司利润在一个给定期间内由自由现金流(FCF)支持的有用指标。为了获得应计比率,首先我们需要从一个期间的利润中减去FCF,然后将该数字除以该期间的平均营运资产。该比率显示公司利润超过FCF的多少。

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.

因此,负的应计比率对公司是有利的,而正的应计比率则会产生负面影响。虽然正的应计比率不是问题,因为它表示某种程度的非现金利润,但高的应计比率可能是一件坏事,因为它表明纸面利润与现金流不匹配。这是因为一些学术研究表明,高的应计比率往往会导致利润降低或利润增长较少。

Freewon ChinaLtd has an accrual ratio of 0.24 for the year to September 2024. Unfortunately, that means its free cash flow fell significantly short of its reported profits. Over the last year it actually had negative free cash flow of CN¥363m, in contrast to the aforementioned profit of CN¥103.5m. Coming off the back of negative free cash flow last year, we imagine some shareholders might wonder if its cash burn of CN¥363m, this year, indicates high risk. However, that's not all there is to consider. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part.

福立旺中国股份有限公司截至2024年9月的应计比率为0.24。不幸的是,这意味着其自由现金流远远不足其报告的盈利。过去一年实际上出现了人民币36300万的负自由现金流,与前述的10350万盈利形成对比。考虑到去年出现负自由现金流,我们想象一些股东可能会担心,今年的36300万人民币的现金燃烧是否表明高风险。然而,需要考虑的不仅仅是这些。应计比率在一定程度上反映了统计利润中不寻常项目的影响。

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

这可能会让您想知道分析师对未来盈利能力的预测。幸运的是,您可以单击此处查看基于其估计的未来盈利能力的互动图表。

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

除了稀释之外,还应该注意的是,万集科技在过去12个月中因不寻常项目获得了价值人民币3.5万元的利润。虽然我们希望看到利润增加,但当这些不寻常项目对利润做出重大贡献时,我们会更加谨慎。我们对全球大部分上市公司的数据进行了分析,发现不寻常项目往往是一次性的。这正如我们所期望的那样,因为这些提升被描述为"不寻常"。相对于其利润而言,万集科技在2021年12月前的不寻常项目贡献大。因此,我们可以推断出,这些不寻常项目正在使其财务利润显著增强。

The fact that the company had unusual items boosting profit by CN¥13m, in the last year, probably goes some way to explain why its accrual ratio was so weak. While it's always nice to have higher profit, a large contribution from unusual items sometimes dampens our enthusiasm. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. If Freewon ChinaLtd doesn't see that contribution repeat, then all else being equal we'd expect its profit to drop over the current year.

公司去年的不寻常项目为利润增加了1300万元,这也许在一定程度上解释了为什么其应计比率如此疲弱。 虽然利润增加总是令人高兴,但不寻常项目对利润的大贡献有时会降低我们的热情。 当我们分析全球大多数上市公司时,我们发现重大的不寻常项目通常不会重复出现。 这是可以预料的,因为这些推动力被描述为“不寻常”。 如果福立旺中国Ltd没有看到那一贡献的重复,那么其他一切都相等的话,我们预期其利润在当前年度会下降。

Our Take On Freewon ChinaLtd's Profit Performance

关于福立旺中国Ltd盈利表现的我们观点

Summing up, Freewon ChinaLtd received a nice boost to profit from unusual items, but could not match its paper profit with free cash flow. Considering all this we'd argue Freewon ChinaLtd's profits probably give an overly generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. If you want to do dive deeper into Freewon ChinaLtd, you'd also look into what risks it is currently facing. To that end, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Freewon ChinaLtd (including 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable).

总而言之,福立旺中国Ltd从不寻常项目获得了利润的美好助推,但无法用自由现金流与其账面利润相匹配。考虑到所有这些,我们认为福立旺中国Ltd的利润可能过度显示其可持续盈利水平。 如果您希望更深入地了解福立旺中国Ltd,您还应该研究其目前面临的风险。 为此,您应了解我们发现的与福立旺中国Ltd有关的2个警示信号(包括1个让我们有点不舒服的信号)。

Our examination of Freewon ChinaLtd has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.

我们对福立旺中国Ltd的考察集中在某些因素上,这些因素可能使其盈利看起来比实际情况更好。 基于这一点,我们持有一定怀疑态度。 但如果您有能力将注意力集中在细节上,总会有更多发现。 有些人认为高净资产收益率是企业质量的良好迹象。 因此,您可能希望查看拥有高净资产收益率的公司的这个免费收藏,或者这个拥有高内部持股的股票清单。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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