Sailvan Times' (SZSE:301381) Earnings Might Not Be As Promising As They Seem
Sailvan Times' (SZSE:301381) Earnings Might Not Be As Promising As They Seem
Investors appear disappointed with Sailvan Times Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:301381) recent earnings, despite the decent statutory profit number. We did some digging and found some worrying factors that they might be paying attention to.
投資者似乎對Sailvan Times Co., Ltd. (SZSE:301381)最近的收益感到失望,儘管法定利潤數字還不錯。我們進行了一些調查,發現了一些令人擔憂的因素,他們可能正在關注。

Zooming In On Sailvan Times' Earnings
聚焦Sailvan Times的收益
As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.
正如財務控制狂所知,從現金流中的應計比率是評估公司自由現金流(FCF)與其利潤匹配程度的關鍵指標。應計比率從給定期間的FCF中減去利潤,並將結果除以公司在該時間內的平均經營資產。該比率告訴我們公司利潤中有多少不受自由現金流支持。
As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
因此,負的應計利潤率對公司來說是積極的,而正的應計利潤率則是負面的。雖然有正的應計利潤率不是問題,表示某種程度的非現金利潤,但高的應計利潤率可能是一件壞事,因爲它表明紙面利潤與現金流不匹配。引用Lewellen和Resutek 2014年的一篇論文:「具有更高應計利潤的公司未來 tend to be less profitable。」
Sailvan Times has an accrual ratio of 0.43 for the year to September 2024. As a general rule, that bodes poorly for future profitability. To wit, the company did not generate one whit of free cashflow in that time. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of CN¥328m despite its profit of CN¥308.4m, mentioned above. We saw that FCF was CN¥493m a year ago though, so Sailvan Times has at least been able to generate positive FCF in the past. However, that's not all there is to consider. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio. The good news for shareholders is that Sailvan Times' accrual ratio was much better last year, so this year's poor reading might simply be a case of a short term mismatch between profit and FCF. As a result, some shareholders may be looking for stronger cash conversion in the current year.
Sailvan Times在截至2024年9月的一年中的應計比率爲0.43。一般規律是,這對未來的盈利前景不利。換句話說,該公司在那段時間內並未產生任何自由現金流。在過去的12個月中,儘管其盈利爲30840萬元人民幣,但實際上自由現金流爲負值,流出了32800萬元人民幣。我們看到一年前的自由現金流爲49300萬元人民幣,所以Sailvan Times至少過去能夠產生正的自由現金流。然而,要考慮的並不僅僅是這些。我們可以看到非常規項目影響了其法定利潤,從而影響了應計比率。對股東來說的好消息是,Sailvan Times的應計比率去年要好得多,因此今年的劣勢數據可能只是利潤與自由現金流之間短期不匹配的情況。因此,一些股東可能正在尋找本年度更加穩健的現金轉換。
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
這可能會讓您想知道分析師對未來盈利能力的預測。幸運的是,您可以單擊此處查看基於其估計的未來盈利能力的互動圖表。
The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit
除了稀釋之外,還應該注意的是,萬集科技在過去12個月中因不尋常項目獲得了價值人民幣3.5萬元的利潤。雖然我們希望看到利潤增加,但當這些不尋常項目對利潤做出重大貢獻時,我們會更加謹慎。我們對全球大部分上市公司的數據進行了分析,發現不尋常項目往往是一次性的。這正如我們所期望的那樣,因爲這些提升被描述爲"不尋常"。相對於其利潤而言,萬集科技在2021年12月前的不尋常項目貢獻大。因此,我們可以推斷出,這些不尋常項目正在使其財務利潤顯著增強。
The fact that the company had unusual items boosting profit by CN¥23m, in the last year, probably goes some way to explain why its accrual ratio was so weak. While it's always nice to have higher profit, a large contribution from unusual items sometimes dampens our enthusiasm. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. If Sailvan Times doesn't see that contribution repeat, then all else being equal we'd expect its profit to drop over the current year.
公司去年出現了飛凡項目的利潤增加了2300萬元人民幣,這在一定程度上解釋了爲何其應計比率如此疲弱。雖然利潤增加總是令人開心的,但大量來自飛凡項目的貢獻有時會削弱我們的熱情。在分析全球大多數上市公司時,我們發現重大的飛凡項目通常不會重複。而這恰恰是會計術語所暗示的。如果Sailvan Times看不到這一貢獻的重演,其他條件相同的情況下,我們預計其利潤在當前年度會下降。
Our Take On Sailvan Times' Profit Performance
我們對Sailvan Times的利潤表現的看法
Summing up, Sailvan Times received a nice boost to profit from unusual items, but could not match its paper profit with free cash flow. For the reasons mentioned above, we think that a perfunctory glance at Sailvan Times' statutory profits might make it look better than it really is on an underlying level. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Sailvan Times at this point in time. Be aware that Sailvan Times is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis and 1 of those makes us a bit uncomfortable...
總的來說,Sailvan Times從飛凡項目獲得了利潤的良好提升,但並未能用自由現金流匹配其名義利潤。基於上述原因,我們認爲對Sailvan Times的法定利潤表進行膚淺的掃視可能會使其看起來比實際情況要好。因此,儘管盈利質量很重要,但同樣重要的是考慮目前Sailvan Times面臨的風險。請注意,我們的投資分析顯示Sailvan Times出現了2個警示信號,其中1個讓我們有點不舒服...
Our examination of Sailvan Times has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.
我們對Sailvan Times的審查主要集中在一些因素上,這些因素可能使其盈利看起來比實際情況要好。基於這一點,我們有些持懷疑態度。但還有很多其他方法可以了解一家公司的情況。有些人認爲高股本回報率是質量企業的良好跡象,因此您可能希望查看這些擁有高股本回報率的公司的免費集合,或者這些擁有高內部所有權的股票清單。
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Simply Wall St的這篇文章是一般性質的。我們僅基於歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,使用公正的方法,我們的文章並非意在提供財務建議。這並不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,並且不考慮您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您帶來基於基礎數據驅動的長期聚焦分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St對提及的任何股票都沒有持倉。