Shaky Earnings May Not Tell The Whole Story For GKG Precision Machine (SZSE:301338)
Shaky Earnings May Not Tell The Whole Story For GKG Precision Machine (SZSE:301338)
The market shrugged off GKG Precision Machine Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:301338) weak earnings report. While shares were up, we believe there are some factors in the earnings report that might cause investors some concerns.
市場對GKG精密機械有限公司(SZSE:301338)的弱盈利報告不以爲然。儘管股價上漲,但我們認爲報告中存在一些因素可能會引起投資者一些擔憂。
A Closer Look At GKG Precision Machine's Earnings
深入研究GKG精密機械的盈利情況
One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.
用於衡量公司如何將其利潤轉化爲自由現金流(FCF)的一個關鍵財務比率是應計比率。應計比率從給定期間的自由現金流中減去利潤,然後將結果除以公司在那段時間內的平均營運資產。這個比率告訴我們,公司利潤中有多少不受自由現金流支持。
Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
因此,當一個公司有一個負的應計比率時,實際上是一件好事,但如果它的應計比率是正的,那就是一件壞事。雖然有一個正的應計比率並不是一個問題,表明了一定程度的非現金利潤,但高的應計比率則是一個壞事,因爲它表明紙上的利潤不與現金流匹配。引用Lewellen和Resutek在2014年發表的論文,「應計比率更高的公司未來的盈利能力往往更低。」
Over the twelve months to September 2024, GKG Precision Machine recorded an accrual ratio of 0.37. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. To wit, the company did not generate one whit of free cashflow in that time. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of CN¥77m despite its profit of CN¥54.8m, mentioned above. It's worth noting that GKG Precision Machine generated positive FCF of CN¥8.0m a year ago, so at least they've done it in the past. However, that's not all there is to consider. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio.
在截至2024年9月的十二個月內,GKG精密機械的計提比率爲0.37。從統計上來看,這對未來盈利是一個真正的負面影響。換句話說,在那段時間內,公司並沒有產生任何自由現金流。在過去的十二個月中,儘管利潤爲人民幣5480萬元(上文提到),但實際上出現了負面自由現金流,流出了7700萬元人民幣。值得注意的是,GKG精密機械在一年前產生了800萬元人民幣的正自由現金流,所以至少他們在過去做到了。然而,還有更多需要考慮的。我們可以看到,非常規項目影響了其法定利潤,從而影響了計提比率。
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
這可能會讓您想知道分析師對未來盈利能力的預測。幸運的是,您可以單擊此處查看基於其估計的未來盈利能力的互動圖表。
How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?
非常規項目如何影響利潤?
Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that GKG Precision Machine's profit was boosted by unusual items worth CN¥13m in the last twelve months. While we like to see profit increases, we tend to be a little more cautious when unusual items have made a big contribution. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. Which is hardly surprising, given the name. We can see that GKG Precision Machine's positive unusual items were quite significant relative to its profit in the year to September 2024. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit a poor guide to underlying earnings power.
根據應計比率,GKG Precision Machine上個十二個月的利潤因價值1300萬人民幣的飛凡項目而得到提升。雖然我們喜歡看到利潤增加,但當飛凡項目對貢獻有很大影響時,我們往往會更加謹慎。當我們分析全球絕大多數上市公司時,發現重大的飛凡項目通常不會重複出現。考慮到名字,這一點並不奇怪。我們可以看到,相對於2024年9月的利潤,GKG Precision Machine的正面飛凡項目相當顯著。其他條件相同的情況下,這可能會導致公司的淨利潤成爲核心盈利能力的一項很差的指標。
Our Take On GKG Precision Machine's Profit Performance
我們對GKG Precision Machine的利潤表現有何看法
Summing up, GKG Precision Machine received a nice boost to profit from unusual items, but could not match its paper profit with free cash flow. For the reasons mentioned above, we think that a perfunctory glance at GKG Precision Machine's statutory profits might make it look better than it really is on an underlying level. So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. When we did our research, we found 3 warning signs for GKG Precision Machine (1 is significant!) that we believe deserve your full attention.
總結一下,GKG Precision Machine在利潤上獲得了飛凡項目的不錯提升,但無法用自由現金流匹配其賬面利潤。基於上述原因,我們認爲簡單看一眼GKG Precision Machine的法定利潤可能會使其看起來比實際情況更好一些。因此,如果您想深入了解這支股票,考慮到它正在面臨的任何風險是至關重要的。在我們進行研究時,我們發現GKG Precision Machine存在3個警示信號(其中1個十分顯著!)我們認爲這值得您的充分關注。
Our examination of GKG Precision Machine has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.
我們對GKG Precision Machine的審查主要集中在一些可以使其盈利看起來比實際情況更好的因素上。基於這一點,我們還是有些持懷疑態度。但有許多其他方式可以幫助您評估一家公司。例如,許多人認爲股東權益回報率高表明良好的商業經濟,而其他人則喜歡「跟着資金走」並尋找內部人員在買入的股票。雖然這可能需要您進行一些研究,但您可能會發現這些擁有高股東權益回報率的公司收集品或者這些具有重要內部持股的股票列表是有用的。
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