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Shaky Earnings May Not Tell The Whole Story For GKG Precision Machine (SZSE:301338)

Shaky Earnings May Not Tell The Whole Story For GKG Precision Machine (SZSE:301338)

GKG精密机械(SZSE:301338)的摇摇欲坠的盈利可能并不能完全说明问题。
Simply Wall St ·  11/05 19:33

The market shrugged off GKG Precision Machine Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:301338) weak earnings report. While shares were up, we believe there are some factors in the earnings report that might cause investors some concerns.

市场对GKG精密机械有限公司(SZSE:301338)的弱盈利报告不以为然。尽管股价上涨,但我们认为报告中存在一些因素可能会引起投资者一些担忧。

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SZSE:301338 Earnings and Revenue History November 6th 2024
SZSE:301338盈利和营业收入历史记录 2024年11月6日

A Closer Look At GKG Precision Machine's Earnings

深入研究GKG精密机械的盈利情况

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

用于衡量公司如何将其利润转化为自由现金流(FCF)的一个关键财务比率是应计比率。应计比率从给定期间的自由现金流中减去利润,然后将结果除以公司在那段时间内的平均营运资产。这个比率告诉我们,公司利润中有多少不受自由现金流支持。

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

因此,当一个公司有一个负的应计比率时,实际上是一件好事,但如果它的应计比率是正的,那就是一件坏事。虽然有一个正的应计比率并不是一个问题,表明了一定程度的非现金利润,但高的应计比率则是一个坏事,因为它表明纸上的利润不与现金流匹配。引用Lewellen和Resutek在2014年发表的论文,“应计比率更高的公司未来的盈利能力往往更低。”

Over the twelve months to September 2024, GKG Precision Machine recorded an accrual ratio of 0.37. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. To wit, the company did not generate one whit of free cashflow in that time. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of CN¥77m despite its profit of CN¥54.8m, mentioned above. It's worth noting that GKG Precision Machine generated positive FCF of CN¥8.0m a year ago, so at least they've done it in the past. However, that's not all there is to consider. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio.

在截至2024年9月的十二个月内,GKG精密机械的计提比率为0.37。从统计上来看,这对未来盈利是一个真正的负面影响。换句话说,在那段时间内,公司并没有产生任何自由现金流。在过去的十二个月中,尽管利润为人民币5480万元(上文提到),但实际上出现了负面自由现金流,流出了7700万元人民币。值得注意的是,GKG精密机械在一年前产生了800万元人民币的正自由现金流,所以至少他们在过去做到了。然而,还有更多需要考虑的。我们可以看到,非常规项目影响了其法定利润,从而影响了计提比率。

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

这可能会让您想知道分析师对未来盈利能力的预测。幸运的是,您可以单击此处查看基于其估计的未来盈利能力的互动图表。

How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?

非常规项目如何影响利润?

Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that GKG Precision Machine's profit was boosted by unusual items worth CN¥13m in the last twelve months. While we like to see profit increases, we tend to be a little more cautious when unusual items have made a big contribution. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. Which is hardly surprising, given the name. We can see that GKG Precision Machine's positive unusual items were quite significant relative to its profit in the year to September 2024. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit a poor guide to underlying earnings power.

根据应计比率,GKG Precision Machine上个十二个月的利润因价值1300万人民币的飞凡项目而得到提升。虽然我们喜欢看到利润增加,但当飞凡项目对贡献有很大影响时,我们往往会更加谨慎。当我们分析全球绝大多数上市公司时,发现重大的飞凡项目通常不会重复出现。考虑到名字,这一点并不奇怪。我们可以看到,相对于2024年9月的利润,GKG Precision Machine的正面飞凡项目相当显著。其他条件相同的情况下,这可能会导致公司的净利润成为核心盈利能力的一项很差的指标。

Our Take On GKG Precision Machine's Profit Performance

我们对GKG Precision Machine的利润表现有何看法

Summing up, GKG Precision Machine received a nice boost to profit from unusual items, but could not match its paper profit with free cash flow. For the reasons mentioned above, we think that a perfunctory glance at GKG Precision Machine's statutory profits might make it look better than it really is on an underlying level. So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. When we did our research, we found 3 warning signs for GKG Precision Machine (1 is significant!) that we believe deserve your full attention.

总结一下,GKG Precision Machine在利润上获得了飞凡项目的不错提升,但无法用自由现金流匹配其账面利润。基于上述原因,我们认为简单看一眼GKG Precision Machine的法定利润可能会使其看起来比实际情况更好一些。因此,如果您想深入了解这支股票,考虑到它正在面临的任何风险是至关重要的。在我们进行研究时,我们发现GKG Precision Machine存在3个警示信号(其中1个十分显著!)我们认为这值得您的充分关注。

Our examination of GKG Precision Machine has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.

我们对GKG Precision Machine的审查主要集中在一些可以使其盈利看起来比实际情况更好的因素上。基于这一点,我们还是有些持怀疑态度。但有许多其他方式可以帮助您评估一家公司。例如,许多人认为股东权益回报率高表明良好的商业经济,而其他人则喜欢“跟着资金走”并寻找内部人员在买入的股票。虽然这可能需要您进行一些研究,但您可能会发现这些拥有高股东权益回报率的公司收集品或者这些具有重要内部持股的股票列表是有用的。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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