Transaction volume fell 2.7% in October, whilst it dropped 14.9% in September.

Housing & Development Board resale prices in Singapore rose by 0.3% in October on a month-month (MoM) basis, whilst transaction volume dipped 2.7% MoM to 2,158 HDB resales.

This marks the third consecutive month that transaction volume has declined.

"The sales decline could be attributed to some buyers shifting to the primary market, as the government launched more than 8,500 new flats in the October BTO sales launch," according to Christine Sun, Chief Researcher & Strategist at OrangeTee in a note.

"The sales launch offered a variety of housing options for eligible buyers, with many new flats having shorter completion times, creating competition for resale flats," Sun added.

Likewise, Luqman Hakim, Chief Data & Analytics Officer at 99.co said the new flats, particularly those with shorter waiting times, are likely to attract buyers seeking quicker housing solutions. This could potentially divert demand from the resale market. Meanwhile, if upcoming BTO launches maintain similar appeal, this could weigh on resale demand and slow price growth over time.

Meanwhile, for Mark Yip, CEO, of Huttons Asia, the market was "stable" in October.

"The introduction of cooling measures in Aug 2024 may have led to some buyers holding back their purchase.

This could be temporary and activities may return to normal in the next few months as the reduction in LTV is not expected to have a big impact on the resale market," Yip said in a note.

Mature Estate prices edged up by 0.1% and Non-Mature Estate prices increased by 0.5%. By flat type, prices for 3-room units went up by 0.4%, 5-room units by 0.2%, and Executive flats by 1.8%, whilst 4-room units saw a slight decline of 0.2%.

Year-on-year (YoY), HDB resale prices increased by 9.8% from October 2023. Specifically, 3-room flats rose by 9.8%, 4-room flats by 10.1%, 5-room flats by 9.2%, and Executive flats by 8.3%. Mature Estates and Non-Mature Estates also saw annual price increases of 8.6% and 10%, respectively.

Of the October transactions, 27.1% were 3-room flats, 42.7% were 4-room, 23.5% were 5-room, and 6.6% were Executive flats. Non-Mature Estates accounted for 60.9% of the sales, whilst Mature Estates made up the remaining 39.1%.

The highest resale transaction in October was S$1.54m for a 5-room flat on Cantonment Road, with the highest in Non-Mature Estates at S$1.155m for an Executive flat on Woodlands Street 82.

A total of 103 HDB resale flats sold for at least S$1m, slightly down from 106 in September, representing 4.8% of the month's resale transactions.

Toa Payoh recorded the most million-dollar sales with 18 units, followed by Kallang/Whampoa with 15, Bukit Merah with 13, and Queenstown with 12. Other million-dollar sales were spread across areas including Bishan, Ang Mo Kio, and Woodlands.

Outlook

For Hutton's Yip, "interest rate is beginning to trend downwards and it may lead to more demand for HDB resale flats. Prices may continue to increase in the coming months,"

The impact of high asking prices and the BTO launch contributed to a decline in resale transaction volume in October. Nonetheless, demand is projected to recover in the coming months as lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs, supporting higher loan amounts, according to Hakim in a research note.

Similarly, Sun expects demand to stay subdued in the next two months, whilst buying activity traditionally declines during the year-end holiday season.

"Nevertheless, many BTO projects in the October sales exercise were oversubscribed. Those who do not get a queue number may opt for the resale market instead of waiting for the next launch, which will occur in four months," Sun said.

Meanwhile, resale prices are projected to remain steady, largely due to the limited supply of flats meeting the 5-year Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) requirement.

"Furthermore, sellers in prime or desirable locations may use the 5-year Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) as a bargaining chip since new flats in similar locations require a longer, 10-year MOP," concluded Sun.