In the third quarter, the performance of the transportation sector diverged, with a good performance of aeronautical airports during the peak season, and differentiation in target elasticity; cross-border prospects are up, express delivery profits continue; road performance improved on a month-on-month basis, and the railway and port sectors are under pressure.
Futu Securities APP learned that Guolian Securities released research reports stating that the performance of the transportation sector in the third quarter diverged, cross-border prospects improved, oil transportation was under pressure during the off-season, and road performance improved on a month-on-month basis. It is worth mentioning that the fundamentals of the aviation industry are stable, Q3 oil prices and exchange rates improved, easing operational pressures on airlines. Despite the decline in ticket prices compared to the same period last year, the peak season performance is still relatively good, with performance differentiation among airlines. Major airlines are accelerating recovery and small airlines are slowing down due to a high base.
Guolian Securities' main points are as follows:
Aeronautical airports: Good performance during the peak season, with differentiation in target elasticity.
The industry fundamentals are stable, with a 20% year-on-year increase in passenger volume in January-September 2024, supporting overall sector performance; international routes have recovered to 85% of 2019 levels, driving supply structure improvements and capacity utilization. With Q3 oil prices and exchange rates improving, airlines' operational pressures have eased. Despite the year-on-year decline in ticket prices, the peak season performance remains good, with performance differentiation among airlines. Major airlines are accelerating their recovery, while small airlines are experiencing a slowdown in growth due to a high base. Looking ahead, as demand stabilizes, supply-demand imbalances further tighten, industry ticket prices are expected to bottom out and rise, potentially releasing elasticity.
Logistics industry: Cross-border prospects are up, and express delivery profits are continuing.
In Q3 2024, cross-border logistics prospects are up, and express delivery volumes are maintaining high growth. In the first three quarters of 2024, the top 20 stocks in the logistics industry (Shenwan level two) market cap performance data: the average revenue is 108.35 billion yuan, the median is 34.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%; the average net income attributable to shareholders is 1.36 billion yuan, the median is 0.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.0%. Among them, the average revenue in Q3 2024 is 36.87 billion yuan, the median is 12.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.3%; the average net income attributable to shareholders is 0.42 billion yuan, the median is 0.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 52.4%.
Shipping industry: Pressure on oil transportation in the off-season, impressive performance of shipping industry.
In 2024 Q3, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI), the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), and the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) were 957, 1,871, and 2,108 respectively, with year-on-year increases of +15.5%, +56.9%, and +140.7%, and quarter-on-quarter changes of -18.9%, +1.2%, and +46.5%. In 2024 Q3, the top 3 in market cap, Cosco Shipping Holdings, Cosco Ship Engy, and China Merchants Energy Shipping achieved operating income of 7.354, 549, 606 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +71.9%, +10.8%, +0.5%; realized net income attributable to the mother of 2.125, 0.81, 0.87 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +285.7%, -10.9%, -11.7%.
Infrastructure: Improvements in highway performance quarter-on-quarter, while pressure on the railway and port sector.
The summer peak travel period belongs to Q3, with the highway sector achieving a net income attributable to the mother of 7.924 billion yuan in 2024 Q3, a year-on-year decrease of 4.70%, narrowing compared to Q2. The railway sector's performance was relatively weaker, with the rail transportation sector achieving a net income attributable to the mother of 6.996 billion yuan in 2024 Q3, a year-on-year decrease of 14.22%, and the decrease compared to the previous quarter slightly expanded. The growth rate of port cargo throughput declined slightly, with the port sector achieving a net income attributable to the mother of 10.577 billion yuan in Q3, a year-on-year decrease of 4.48%.
Investment recommendation: Suggest focusing on sectors with upward performance flexibility.
As the aviation sector stabilizes with demand, the oil and exchange rate environment is expected to further improve. In the medium to long term, the mismatch between supply and demand is expected to gradually translate into performance. Recommended stocks include China Express Airlines (002928.SZ), Hainan Airlines Holding (600221.SH), and Air China Limited (601111.SH).
Bullish on the logistics industry for continuous profit recovery in the express delivery sector and the prosperous cross-border logistics track. Recommend zto express (02057), YTO Express Group (600233.SH), China Eastern Airlines (601156.SH), and Sinotrans Limited (601598.SH), suggesting attention on Yunda Holding (002120.SZ) and sto express co.,ltd. (002468.SZ).
For infrastructure, focus on undervalued high dividend yield sectors. Recommend paying attention to Jiangsu Expressway (600377.SH), Shandong Hi-speed (600350.SH), Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development (000429.SZ), Guangshen Railway (601333.SH), Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway (601816.SH), and China Merchants Port Group (001872.SZ).
Risk warning: Slow global economic recovery; Slow domestic economic development; Intensified low-price competition in the industry; Sharp rise in fuel prices.
