There's been a major selloff in Marqeta, Inc. (NASDAQ:MQ) shares in the week since it released its quarterly report, with the stock down 40% to US$3.42. Revenues came in at US$128m, in line with expectations, while statutory losses per share were substantially higher than expected, at US$0.06 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Marqeta's 16 analysts is for revenues of US$598.0m in 2025. This would reflect a major 22% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The company is forecast to report a statutory loss of US$0.18 in 2025, a sharp decline from a profit over the last year. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$638.9m and losses of US$0.17 per share in 2025.

The analysts have cut their price target 21% to US$5.69per share, signalling that the declining revenue and ongoing losses are contributing to the lower valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Marqeta at US$8.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$4.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Marqeta'shistorical trends, as the 17% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 17% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 3.4% annually. So it's pretty clear that Marqeta is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. They also downgraded Marqeta's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Marqeta going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Marqeta has 3 warning signs (and 1 which is significant) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.