There May Be Underlying Issues With The Quality Of Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels' (SHSE:600754) Earnings
There May Be Underlying Issues With The Quality Of Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels' (SHSE:600754) Earnings
Investors were disappointed with Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:600754) earnings, despite the strong profit numbers. We did some digging and found some worrying underlying problems.
投资者对上海锦江国际酒店有限公司感到失望。”s(上海证券交易所代码:600754)的收益,尽管利润数字强劲。我们进行了一些挖掘,发现了一些令人担忧的潜在问题。
A Closer Look At Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels' Earnings
仔细看看上海锦江国际酒店的收益
Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.
许多投资者尚未听说过现金流的应计比率,但它实际上是衡量公司在给定时期内自由现金流(FCF)在多大程度上支持利润的有用指标。应计比率从给定时期的利润中减去FCF,然后将结果除以该时间内公司的平均运营资产。该比率向我们显示了公司的利润超过其FCF的程度。
Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.
因此,当公司的应计比率为负时,这实际上被认为是一件好事,但是如果应计比率为正,则被认为是一件坏事。这并不意味着我们应该担心应计比率为正,但值得注意的是,应计比率相当高的地方。值得注意的是,有一些学术证据表明,总的来说,高应计比率对短期利润来说是个坏兆头。
Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels has an accrual ratio of -0.10 for the year to September 2024. That implies it has good cash conversion, and implies that its free cash flow solidly exceeded its profit last year. To wit, it produced free cash flow of CN¥3.3b during the period, dwarfing its reported profit of CN¥1.12b. Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels' free cash flow actually declined over the last year, which is disappointing, like non-biodegradable balloons. However, that's not all there is to consider. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio.
截至2024年9月的一年中,上海锦江国际酒店的应计比率为-0.10。这意味着它具有良好的现金转化率,也意味着其去年的自由现金流稳步超过了利润。换句话说,它在此期间产生的自由现金流为33元人民币,使其报告的11.2元利润相形见绌。去年,上海锦江国际酒店的自由现金流实际上有所下降,这令人失望,就像不可生物降解的气球一样。但是,这还不是要考虑的全部。我们可以看到,不寻常的项目影响了其法定利润,从而影响了应计比率。
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
这可能会让你想知道分析师对未来盈利能力的预测。幸运的是,您可以点击此处查看根据他们的估计描绘未来盈利能力的交互式图表。
How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?
不寻常的物品如何影响利润?
Surprisingly, given Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels' accrual ratio implied strong cash conversion, its paper profit was actually boosted by CN¥276m in unusual items. While it's always nice to have higher profit, a large contribution from unusual items sometimes dampens our enthusiasm. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. Assuming those unusual items don't show up again in the current year, we'd thus expect profit to be weaker next year (in the absence of business growth, that is).
令人惊讶的是,鉴于上海锦江国际酒店的应计比率暗示着强劲的现金转换率,其票面利润实际上是由27600万元人民币的不寻常项目提振的。虽然获得更高的利润总是件好事,但来自不寻常物品的巨额捐款有时会抑制我们的热情。当我们分析全球绝大多数上市公司时,我们发现重大不寻常的事项往往不会重演。而且,毕竟,这正是会计术语的含义。假设这些不寻常的项目在本年度不会再次出现,因此我们预计明年的利润将疲软(也就是说,在业务没有增长的情况下)。
Our Take On Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels' Profit Performance
我们对上海锦江国际酒店盈利表现的看法
In conclusion, Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels' accrual ratio suggests its statutory earnings are of good quality, but on the other hand the profits were boosted by unusual items. Having considered these factors, we don't think Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels' statutory profits give an overly harsh view of the business. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels at this point in time. While conducting our analysis, we found that Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels has 1 warning sign and it would be unwise to ignore this.
总之,上海锦江国际酒店的应计比率表明其法定收益质量良好,但另一方面,利润是由不寻常的项目提振的。考虑到这些因素,我们不认为上海锦江国际酒店的法定利润对该业务的看法过于严厉。因此,尽管收益质量很重要,但考虑上海锦江国际酒店目前面临的风险同样重要。在进行分析时,我们发现上海锦江国际酒店有1个警告标志,忽视这一点是不明智的。
Our examination of Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.
我们对上海锦江国际酒店的审查侧重于某些可能使其收益看起来好于实际的因素。但是,还有很多其他方法可以让你对公司的看法。有些人认为高股本回报率是优质业务的好兆头。因此,你可能希望看到这份拥有高股本回报率的公司的免费集合,或者这份内部所有权高的股票清单。
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