Trump sparks a rally in the US dollar! US stocks and bitcoin hit new highs, with the Dow rising 1500 points, small cap stocks surging, while US bonds and metals plummet.

wallstreetcn · Nov 6 18:18

道指涨幅两年最佳，小盘股指涨近6%，银行股指涨超10%，石油、钢铁和加密货币股跳涨，欧美中光伏股全线溃败，特朗普媒体科技涨近35%后收涨约6%，特斯拉涨近15%至两年最高，高通盘后涨10%。中概跌幅收窄，蔚来和极氪跌超5%。10年期美债收益率最高涨20个基点上逼4.48%，与涨1.7%升破105的美元指数均四个月高位，比特币涨9%上逼7.6万美元，离岸人民币跌千点失守7.20元三个月最低，欧元和日元一度齐跌2%。黄金跌超3%，伦铜跌超4%。

据央视新闻，哈里斯致电特朗普，祝贺其当选美国总统。同时，在本次大选中，特朗普横扫摇摆州，共和党夺回参议院，众议院的选情依旧焦灼，预计共和党以微弱优势领先。分析普遍认为，共和党掌管白宫和参众两院将带来支出和税收政策的重大改变，也会利好于美国经济增长。除了特朗普交易点燃市场，人们还高度聚焦周四的美联储货币决策。

“特朗普交易”爆发式增长力撑美股三大指数创历史新高，特斯拉、特朗普媒体科技（DJT）、监狱股、能源股、加密货币概念股、银行股集体大涨，光伏股全线溃败，中概股普遍回落但尾盘跌幅收窄。市场担忧特朗普落实关税计划令欧股承压。特朗普政策引发通胀担忧令美元和美债收益率携手走高，打压大宗商品普跌，金银铜油下挫。比特币期货涨破7.7万美元大关创历史新高。

美联储降息预期大跌，市场目前预计2025年仅降息57个基点，从现在到2025年底的总降息预期不到100个基点。摩根大通预计美联储将从2025年3月开始一个季度仅仅降息一次。野村经济学家预测，美联储在2025年可能只会降息一次，并将终端利率预测上调50个基点至3.625%。他们预计特朗普将提高关税，这将短期内推高通胀并导致增长适度放缓。

特朗普关税政策引发全球通胀担忧，欧洲央行副行长Guindos表示，若特朗普落实关税计划，全球经济增长和通胀可能面临毁灭性冲击。欧洲央行管委兼法国央行行长Villeroy表示，特朗普胜选加重全球经济面临的风险。但高盛预计欧央行加大降息幅度，此外，欧元区10月综合和服务业PMI终值双双上修，均站上荣枯线、重返扩张。

降息预期大跌，市场目前预计2025年仅降息57个基点，从现在到2025年底的总降息预期不到100个基点（不到4次25个基点的降息）

11月6日周三，特朗普宣布胜选，“特朗普交易”爆发式增长力撑标普、纳指、道指齐创历史新高。道指最高涨超1550点为两年最佳涨幅，罗素小盘股指涨逾5.8%领涨。特斯拉大涨近15%至两年新高，特朗普媒体科技涨超34.8%后收涨近6%，一度触发暂停交易，监管松绑预期提振石油、钢铁和加密货币股，费城银行指数收涨超10%。光伏股全线溃败，中概尾盘跌幅收窄：

美股三大指数齐涨。标普500指数收涨146.28点，涨幅2.53%，报5929.04点。与经济周期密切相关的道指收涨1508.05点，涨幅3.57%，报43729.93点。科技股居多的纳指收涨544.29点，涨幅2.95%，报18983.47点。纳指100指数收涨2.74%。衡量纳指100科技业成份股表现的纳斯达克科技市值加权指数（NDXTMC）收涨2.65%。对经济周期更敏感的罗素2000小盘股指数收涨5.84%。恐慌指数VIX收跌20.11%，报16.37。
标普500指数收涨2.53%，是历史上选举日后最大的涨幅
美股行业ETF收盘基本上涨。区域银行ETF涨逾13%，银行业ETF涨近12%，金融业ETF涨超6%，全航空业ETF涨超5%，能源业ETF、可选消费ETF及网络股指数ETF各涨至少3%，科学行业ETF与半导体ETF各涨至少2.5%。而日常消费品ETF与公用事业ETF均跌超1%。
标普500指数的11个板块多数上涨。金融板块收涨6.16%，工业、可选消费、能源板块至少涨超3.5%，科技板块收涨2.52%，电信板块涨约2.4%，日用消费品板块则收跌将近1.6%，房地产板块跌超2.6%。
投研策略上：摩根资产管理全球市场策略师Vincent Juvyns认为，特朗普大选获胜后，减税和财政措施可能使广泛行业和国内公司受益，美国股市涨势将从科技和蓝筹股扩散至其他板块，特别是中小盘股。
“科技七姐妹”涨多跌少。特斯拉收涨14.75%，谷歌A收涨3.99%，英伟达收涨4.07%至新高，继续超越苹果为全球市值最大。微软收涨2.12%，亚马逊收涨3.8%创历史新高。苹果收跌0.33%。Meta收跌0.07%。
特斯拉股价收涨近15%，为2023年7月以来的最高水平
芯片股多数走高。费城半导体指数收涨3.12%。行业ETF SOXX收涨2.92%。英伟达两倍做多ETF收涨8.08%。AMD收涨2.43%，博通收涨3.25%，安森美半导体收涨2.95%。Arm控股收涨2.87%，美光科技收涨6.01%，英特尔收涨7.42%。高通收涨4.27%，三季报向好，更加强劲的手机需求让公司看好四季度表现，盘后一度涨逾12%。阿斯麦ADR收跌2.22%。台积电ADR收跌1.3%，科磊收跌0.1%
AI概念股涨多跌少。超微电脑收跌18.05%，三季度业销售初步估算和四季度指引逊于预期，巴克莱将超微电脑目标股价从42美元下调至25美元，摩根大通将评级下调至“减持”，目标股价为23美元。Loop Capital将目标价从100美元下调至35美元。BigBear.ai收跌9.66%，Palantir收涨8.61%。戴尔科技收涨3.66%。英伟达持股的AI语音公司SoundHound AI收涨5.96%，CrowdStrike收涨4.04%，C3.ai收涨4.17%，Snowflake收涨4.22%，甲骨文收涨5.51%，BullFrog AI收涨8.19%，Serve Robotics收涨2.85%。
中概股普遍回落。纳斯达克金龙中国指数跌3.8%后收跌1.83%。ETF中，中国科技指数ETF（CQQQ）收跌2.11%。中概互联网指数ETF（KWEB）收跌2.01%。富时中国3倍做多ETF（YINN）收跌8.73%。富时A50期指连续夜盘收跌0.32%，报13551.000点。
热门中概股中，造车新势力集体走低，小鹏汽车收跌3.98%，公司将研发Ultra车型，为Robotaxi服务，第四代机器人的命名为Iron。极氪收跌5.97%，理想汽车收跌3.25%，蔚来收跌5.3%。光伏股普跌，大全新能源收跌8.11%，阿特斯太阳能收跌19.9%，晶科能源收跌14.31%。房多多收跌7.38%，携程网收跌1.99%，阿里巴巴收跌2.5%，百度收跌1.04%，B站收跌4.57%，老虎证券收跌1.34%，网易收跌0.22%，京东收跌3.4%，新东方收跌2.93%，拼多多收跌1.29%。
投资者臆测特朗普入主白宫后将利好化石燃料，能源股普遍上涨。美国油服贝克休斯收涨10.78%，EQT资源收涨7.56%，KMI收涨6.64%，雪佛龙收涨2.81%，埃克森美孚收涨1.71%。
光伏股美股盘初全线溃败。Sunrun收跌29.63%，Array收跌21.94%，光伏逆变器供应商Enphase Energy收跌16.82%，第一太阳能收跌10.13%。
光伏股大跌
比特币大涨创新高令区块链概念股普涨，Coinbase收涨31.11%，Cipher Mining涨超31%，Riot Platforms涨超26.1%，两倍做多比特币ETF涨超19.7%，Robinhood涨超19.6%，“比特币持仓大户”微策投资MSTR涨约13.2%，嘉楠科技ADR涨约13%，以太币ETF ETHV涨超11.4%，比特币ETF BITB涨约9.9%。
特朗普胜选让投资者憧憬美国监管部门将为监管松绑，令费城银行指数飙涨超10%。地区银行指数收涨13.47%，报133.26点。华尔街大行中，富国银行收涨13.11%，摩根士丹利收涨11.61%，高盛收涨13.1%，花旗集团收涨8.42%，摩根大通收涨11.54%，美国银行收涨8.43%。
其他重点个股：（1）特朗普媒体科技（DJT）盘初涨超34.8%后收涨5.94%。（2）诺和诺德ADR收跌4.33%，Q3净利润同比增长21%，Wegovy收入大增79%，但收窄全年销售额指引区间。（3）药房连锁CVS收涨11.33%，第三季度净收入超出预期。（4）私营监狱股美国惩教公司（CXW）收涨28.98%，GEO惩教集团收涨42.1%。

特朗普当选令欧股回吐早前涨幅收跌，市场担忧特朗普落实关税计划，欧洲汽车股普跌，宝马跌6.58%，梅赛德斯奔驰集团跌6.44%，大众汽车跌4.27%，斯泰兰蒂斯Stellantis涨1.75%，但宣布裁员超1000人。由于担心特朗普政府可能会暂停新项目的批准，欧洲可再生能源股跌超10%，维斯塔斯风力技术收跌12.82%，两天跌超23%、沃旭能源跌12.79%：

泛欧STOXX 600指数收跌0.54%。欧元区STOXX 50指数收跌1.43%。富时泛欧绩优300指数收跌0.47%。宝马收跌6.58%，三季度汽车部门营收278.5亿欧元，同比下降13%，公司利润率降至四年来的最低水平。
德国DAX 30指数收跌1.13%。法国CAC 40指数收跌0.51%。荷兰AEX指数收跌0.83%。意大利富时MIB指数收跌1.54%。英国富时100指数收跌0.07%。西班牙IBEX 35指数收跌2.9%。

特朗普胜选让投资者对美国联邦政府扩大财政赤字的风险，以及减税、关税政策引发通胀抬升感到惶恐不安，交易员削减对美联储明年降息的押注，美债全线大幅抛售，美国30年期国债收益率一度上升23个基点，创2020年以来最大单日涨幅，美国10年期国债收益率一度飙升20个基点，创4月10日以来最大涨幅：

美债：尾盘时，美国10年期基准国债收益率涨15.48个基点，报4.4256%，北京时间08:00“低开”并刷新日低至4.2481%，但随后迅速反弹并形成一波显著的上涨，20:28涨至4.4768%，逼近7月1日顶部4.4911%和5月29日顶部4.6357%。两年期美债收益率涨8.94个基点，报4.2659%，11:01涨至4.3073%，逼近7月30日顶部4.4059%和5月29日顶部4.9975%。
美银美林认为，如果特朗普上台并进行财政扩张，那么美联储可能会上调中性利率预期。此外，如果新总统大幅加征关税，美联储可能会出于对通胀和经济增长影响的考虑而暂停降息。
特朗普胜选后，美国国债收益率飙升
欧债：尾盘时，10年期德债收益率跌2.0个基点，报2.405%。两年期德债收益率跌12.6个基点，报2.176%。10年期英债收益率涨3.3个基点。两年期英债收益率大致持平。10年期法债收益率涨1.1个基点，10年期意债收益率涨6.4个基点。
高盛经济学家Sven Jari Stehn预计，在特朗普再次当选美国总统后，欧洲央行将在2025年7月额外降息25个基点。同时，预计瑞士央行和瑞典央行也将额外降息25个基点，而对英国央行和挪威央行的预测保持不变。欧元区实际GDP将受到0.5%的冲击，英国将受到0.4%的温和冲击。

“美国大选次日”美元指数涨超1.6%站上105，至近四个月最高。日元跌超1.9%逼近155，至三个月最低，离岸人民币跌超千点，逾三个月首次跌至7.20元下方。欧元跌超1.8%迈向逾四年来最糟糕的一天，至四个多月最低，但墨西哥比索盘中转涨，巴西雷亚尔领跑新兴市场货币，比特币期货盘中站上7.7美元大关创历史新高：

美元：美元指数DXY尾盘涨1.66%，报105.137点，一举收复200日均线（该技术指标暂报103.849点），全天处于上涨状态，日内交投区间为104.043-105.441点，逼近6月26日顶部106.130点。彭博美元指数涨1.26%，报1269.90点。
彭博美元指数触及12个月高点，为2023年2月以来的最大单日涨幅
非美货币：欧元兑美元跌1.84%、报1.0729，英镑兑美元跌1.23%、报1.2883，美元兑瑞郎涨1.49%、报0.8762。商品货币对中，澳元兑美元跌1.01%，纽元兑美元跌1.08%，美元兑加元涨0.86%。瑞典克朗兑美元跌1.47%，挪威克朗兑美元跌1.04%。
日元：日元兑美元尾盘跌1.95%，报154.58日元。富国银行指出，如果美国国债收益率继续上升，日元兑美元汇率可能跌破155，甚至触及161.95的低位。对此，日本央行可能会通过释放信号或提前加息来应对。
离岸人民币（CNH）：离岸人民币兑美元尾盘跌1019点，报7.2036元，日内整体交投于7.0906-7.2096元区间，逼近8月2日底部7.2521元。
加密货币：市值最大的龙头比特币期货尾盘涨9.63%，报76585.00美元，北京时间04:59一度涨至77140.00美元创历史新高。现货比特币最近24小时涨超9.7%，04:54刷新历史高位至76475.38美元。第二大的以太坊期货涨11.11%，报2711.00美元，北京时间05:17曾涨至2730.50美元。
比特币期货爆发至7.7万美元新高

美国EIA原油供应创8月份来新高，美元走强令油价承压，美油震荡走低，跌超3%后跌幅收窄至逾0.4%，但美股盘中一度转涨并涨近1%：

美油：WTI 12月原油期货收跌0.30美元，跌幅将近0.42%，报71.69美元/桶。美油延续稍早前跌势，美股盘前最低跌超3.1%触及69.74美元，随后快速反弹，美股早盘最高涨近0.9%升破72.60美元。
布油：布伦特1月原油期货收跌0.61美元，跌约0.81%，报74.92美元/桶。布油延续稍早前跌势，美股盘前最低跌近2.9%下逼73.30美元，随后快速反弹，美股早盘最高涨近0.6%上逼76美元。
消息面上，花旗认为，特朗普赢得美国大选对于油价走势前景是净利空。美国能源信息署（EIA）数据显示，美国原油供应创8月份以来新高，上周美国EIA原油库存增加214.9万桶，高于分析师预期的135万桶，之前一周下降51.5万桶，汽油和精炼油库存也不降反升。
天然气：美国12月天然气期货收涨2.88%，报2.7470美元/百万英热单位。欧洲基准的TTF荷兰天然气期货涨0.25%，报40.500欧元/兆瓦时，V型反弹、尾盘转涨。ICE英国天然气期货跌0.33%，报102.350便士/千卡。
美油震荡，跌破70美元后回升至72美元上方，最终仍收跌

特朗普胜选提振美元走强触及四个月高点，加之潜在关税政策可能抬高通胀并致使美联储降息步伐停滞，两大因素均施压现货金走低创五个月来最大单日跌幅，盘中最深跌逾3%失守2660美元至三周低点，现货银盘中最深跌近5.6%至逾三周最低水平：

黄金：COMEX 12月黄金期货尾盘跌2.97%至2668.00美元/盎司，持续脱离10月30日所创历史最高位2801.80美元。现货黄金全天维持跌势，美股盘前最低跌超3.3%下逼2650美元，为10月16日以来首次，尾盘跌3.09%，报2659.06美元/盎司，10月31日曾涨至2790.10美元创历史新高以来，一度累计回调超过4.57%。
白银：COMEX 12月白银期货尾盘跌4.59%至31.270美元/盎司。现货白银全天维持跌势，美股盘前最低跌近5.6%下逼30.80美元，为10月15日以来首次，尾盘跌4.53%，报31.1778美元/盎司。
伦敦工业金属中，伦铜和伦锌收跌超4%，伦锡也跌超3%：伦铜收跌396美元，跌幅超过4.06%，报9343美元/吨。COMEX铜期货跌5.28%，报4.2387美元/磅。伦铝收跌44美元，报2616美元/吨。伦锌收跌130美元，跌约4.19%，报2973美元/吨。伦铅收涨20美元，报2048美元/吨。伦镍收涨4美元，报16127美元/吨。伦锡收跌1002美元，跌约3.10%，报31347美元/吨。伦钴收平，报24300美元/吨。
美元强势打压金价持续走低

以下为北京时间11月6日23:00以前更新内容

11月6日周三，特朗普宣布胜选，“特朗普交易”爆发式增长力撑标普、纳指、道指齐创历史新高。道指一度涨近1350点，罗素小盘股指一度涨超4.8%创近两年来最大盘中涨幅。特斯拉大涨超15%，特朗普媒体科技涨超34.8%后回吐多数涨幅，“比特币持仓大户”微策投资涨近15.7%后涨幅收窄，特朗普胜选让投资者憧憬美国监管部门将为监管松绑，华尔街金融巨头集体走强，美国费城银行指数一度涨约8.5%，富国银行一度涨近16%：

美股三大指数齐涨。标普500指数一度涨超2.1%创历史新高。与经济周期密切相关的道指一度涨近1350点或3.2%创历史新高。科技股居多的纳指一度涨近2.3%创历史新高。对经济周期更敏感的罗素2000小盘股指数一度涨超4.8%，创2023年1月以来最大盘中涨幅。
美股盘初，银行业ETF涨9.16%，金融业ETF涨5.19%，能源业ETF与可选消费ETF涨约2.6%，半导体ETF涨超1.8%表现靠后。
投研策略上：摩根资产管理全球市场策略师Vincent Juvyns认为，特朗普大选获胜后，美国股市表现将从科技和蓝筹股扩散至其他板块，特别是中小盘股。特朗普计划中的减税和财政措施可能使广泛行业和国内公司受益，提振中小市值公司。
“科技七姐妹”多数上涨。特斯拉一度涨近15.2%，谷歌A一度涨超3.4%，英伟达一度涨超3.3%，微软一度涨近1.6%，亚马逊一度涨近1%，创盘中历史新高。苹果低开跌逾1%后涨近1%。Meta一度跌逾3%。
芯片股多数走高。费城半导体指数一度涨超2.5%，英伟达两倍做多ETF一度涨超6.5%，英特尔一度涨超5.8%，博通一度涨超3.4%，AMD一度涨超2.6%，而台积电一度跌近2.7%。
AI概念股涨多跌少。C3.ai一度涨超6.3%，Palantir一度涨超6%，而超微电脑一度跌近25.6%，三季度业销售步估算和四季度销售指引逊于预期，巴克莱将超微电脑目标股价从42美元下调至25美元，摩根大通将评级下调至“减持”，目标股价为23美元。Loop Capital将目标价从100美元下调至35美元。
中概股普遍回落。纳斯达克金龙中国指数一度跌近3.8%。热门中概股中，小鹏汽车一度跌超8%，公司将研发Ultra车型，为Robotaxi服务，第四代机器人的命名为Iron。极氪一度跌超11%，光伏股普跌，大全新能源一度跌近8.4%，阿特斯太阳能一度跌超16.3%，晶科能源一度跌近14%，房多多一度跌超9%。阿里巴巴一度跌超4%，京东一度跌超7.4%。
光伏股美股盘初全线溃败。Sunrun一度跌约22.59%，Array一度跌约19.2%，光伏逆变器供应商Enphase Energy一度跌约16.98%，第一太阳能一度跌超15.7%。
监管松绑预期令费城银行指数飙一度涨超8%。美国费城银行指数一度涨逾8.5%，创2020年11月份以来最大盘中涨幅，特朗普胜选让投资者憧憬美国监管部门将为监管松绑。华尔街大行中，富国银行一度涨近16%，摩根士丹利一度涨约9.69%，高盛一度涨约9.63%，花旗集团一度涨约8.63%，摩根大通一度涨约7.88%，美国银行一度涨约7.29%。
其他重点个股：（1）特朗普媒体科技（DJT）盘初一度涨超34.8%，随后回吐多数涨幅。（2）诺和诺德ADR一度跌超3.1%，Q3净利润同比增长21%，Wegovy收入大增79%。（3）药房连锁CVS一度涨超14.3%，第三季度净收入超出预期。

【以下为22:30以前更新内容】

特朗普宣布胜选后，美股盘前持续拉升，“特朗普交易”急剧升温，美元、美债收益率、比特币集体大涨，金银桶油集体大跌，特朗普媒体科技集团（DJT）盘前一度大涨近60%，现涨幅缩窄至30%，特斯拉盘前涨超12%，欧股小幅走弱。

据央视新闻，根据多家美媒最新公布的初步测算，特朗普目前已获得277张选举人票，超过胜选所需的270张选举人票，提前锁定胜局。而哈里斯得票数暂为224张。

其他个股方面，诺和诺德涨超5%，财报数据显示，公司第三季度减肥药Wegovy销量激增。超微电脑盘前跌超19%，公司三季度业销售初步估算和四季度销售指引均逊于预期。

美股三大期指持续拉升，道指期货涨超3%，飙涨超1300点，为2022年11月以来首次；标普500指数期货涨幅扩大至2%，纳指期货涨1.8%，罗素2000小盘股指数期货大涨超6%。
欧股涨幅缩窄，欧洲斯托克50指数转跌，跌幅达0.39%，欧洲斯托克600指数涨幅收窄至0.2%，德国DAX30指数跌0.19%，英国富时100指数、法国CAC40指数涨幅缩窄至0.2%。
美股特朗普媒体科技集团（DJT）盘前涨幅一度扩大至58%，现回落至30%。特斯拉盘前涨超15%。
美元指数盘中升至一年以来最高水平，现报104.78。
各期限美债遭重挫，美国30年期国债收益率上升23个基点，创2020年以来最大单日涨幅，10年期美债收益率飙升20个基点，达到4.47%，2年期美债收益率上行逾12基点。
比特币创历史新高，最高报75000美元/枚，日内涨超8%。美国最大加密货币交易所Coinbase盘前涨超12%，全球持有比特币最多的上市公司Microstrategy涨超9%。
全球大宗商品走低，金银桶油价格齐跌。现货黄金跌破2700美元/盎司，跌幅迅速扩大至3%；现货白银一度大跌4%，报31.34美元/盎司；WTI原油日内大跌3.00%，报69.82美元/桶，布伦特原油跌2.7%，报73.28美元/桶。COMEX铜期货跌逾4.5%，报4.2715美元/磅。LME期铜跌近3%，报9452美元/吨。
非美货币兑美元汇率集体走低：墨西哥比索兑美元跌幅扩大至3%，创三个月最大跌幅，欧元兑美元跌1.88%报1.0724。美元对日元涨幅扩大至1.7%报154.19。英镑兑美元迅速跌向10月底低点，跌破200日移动均线。澳元兑美元跌幅扩大至1%，韩元兑美元跌至2022年以来新低，离岸人民币日跌超1000点，现报7.2083。

【21:47更新】

现货黄金跌幅扩大至3%，现报2662.13美元/盎司。

欧股涨幅缩窄，欧洲斯托克50指数、德国DAX30指数均转跌。

【21:29更新】

现货黄金跌幅扩大至2%，最低报2677.97美元/盎司。

现货白银日内跌逾4%，报31.21美元/盎司。

布油、美油一度跌3%。

LME期铜跌近3%，最低报9350美元/吨。

【19:56更新】

现货黄金跌破2700美元，日内跌幅逾1.6%。

离岸人民币兑美元日内跌幅达1065点，现报7.2083。

【19:37更新】

美国30年期国债收益率上升23个基点，创2020年以来最大单日涨幅。

韩元兑美元跌至2022年以来新低。

【19:12更新】

美国30年期国债收益率上升逾20个基点，至4.649%。

美元指数一度升至2023年11月以来最高水平，现涨1.32%，报104.78。

【18:16更新】

美股三大期指加速上涨，道指期货涨幅逼近3%，单日跳涨超1000点为2022年11月以来首次。

欧股延续上涨，英国富时100指数、法国CAC40指数涨超1%。

美元延续高位，现报104.78。

各期限美债收益率集体上行，10年期美债收益率日内上行逾14bp，2年期美债收益率上行逾12bp。

黄金继续走低，日内跌幅达0.65%，报2725.94美元/盎司。

比特币日内涨幅缩窄至7.05%，报7.36万美元/枚。

【17:00更新】

特斯拉美股盘前涨逾11%，特朗普媒体科技涨逾58%；“比特币持仓大户”微策投资涨超11%；诺和诺德涨超5%，第三季度减肥药Wegovy销量激增。

【16:15更新】

欧洲斯托克600指数涨幅扩大至1.2%。

【16:03更新】

欧股小幅高开，德国DAX30指数涨0.47%，英国富时100指数涨0.79%，法国CAC40指数涨0.34%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.27%。

【15:43更新】

标普500指数期货涨幅扩大至2%，纳指期货涨逾1.7%。印度Nifty指数、Sensex指数均上涨1%。

【14:40更新】

欧元兑美元日内下跌2%，现报1.0710。欧洲斯托克50指数期货日内涨0.1%，此前一度跌1%。

【13:54更新】

欧洲斯托克50指数期货跌幅扩大至1%，至当日最低点。

【11:42更新】

美元指数涨幅扩大至1.64%，报105.12。欧元兑美元跌1.88%报1.0724。美元对日元涨幅扩大至1.7%报154.19。离岸人民币兑美元跌1%，报7.1719。

【11:08更新】

比特币创历史新高，最高报75000美元/枚。

【11:00更新】

美股期货扩大涨幅，道指期货涨超1.2%，标普500和纳斯达克100指数期货涨超1.1%。

【10:35更新】

截至早盘收盘，日经225指数涨2.3%，东证指数涨1.9%。

美元指数涨幅扩大至1.1%。比特币日内涨幅扩大至5%。

【10:23】

美元走强，墨西哥比索兑美元跌幅扩大至2%。日经225指数涨幅扩大至2%。

美股期货涨幅扩大，道指期货现涨1.1%，标普500指数期货涨超0.9%，纳斯达克100指数期货涨近0.6%。

【10:13更新】

美元指数日内涨近1%，至7月份来新高。欧元兑美元走低，欧元/美元日内跌幅扩大至1%。美元/日元日内涨幅扩大至1%。

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美国10年期国债收益率上行10个基点。

【9:04更新】

美元指数短线持续走高，目前涨0.75%报104.20。欧元兑美元走低，日内跌0.82%报1.0839。离岸人民币兑美元跌破7.14，日内跌近400点。美元对日元涨幅扩大至0.83%，报152.89。比特币涨幅扩大至近3%。

【8:44更新】

墨西哥比索兑美元跌幅扩大至1%。

【8:37更新】

日经225指数涨幅扩大至1%。日本10年期国债期货跌至144.2。

The Dow had the best increase in two years. The small-cap stock index rose nearly 6%, bank stock indices rose more than 10%, oil, steel, and cryptocurrency stocks jumped, European, American and Chinese PV stocks failed across the board, Trump Media Technology closed up about 6% after rising nearly 35%, Tesla rose nearly 15% to the highest level in two years, and Qualcomm rose 10% after the market. China's decline narrowed, with NIO and ZEEKR falling more than 5%. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by as much as 20 basis points to 4.48%. The US dollar index, which rose 1.7% above 105, both reached a four-month high. Bitcoin rose 9% to reach 0.076 million US dollars, the offshore RMB fell 1,000 points to a three-month minimum, and the euro and yen fell 2% at one point. Gold fell more than 3%, while copper fell by more than 4%.

According to CCTV news, Harris telephoned Trump to congratulate him on his election as President of the United States. Meanwhile, in this general election, Trump swept through swing states, and the Republican Party took back the Senate. The election situation in the House of Representatives is still anxious, and the Republican Party is expected to lead by a narrow margin. Analysts generally believe that the Republican Party's control of the White House and the Senate and House of Representatives will bring about major changes in spending and tax policies, and will also benefit the growth of the US economy. In addition to igniting the market with Trump's deal, people also focused heavily on the US Federal Reserve's monetary decision on Thursday.

The explosive growth of the “Trump Deal” supported the three major US stock indices to record highs. Tesla, Trump Media Technology (DJT), prison stocks, energy stocks, cryptocurrency concept stocks, and bank stocks collectively surged. PV stocks collapsed across the board, and Chinese securities generally fell, but the decline narrowed at the end of the session. The market is worried that Trump's implementation of the tariff plan will put pressure on European stocks. Inflation concerns raised by Trump's policies caused the dollar and US bond yields to rise hand in hand, suppressing the general decline in commodities, and a decline in gold, silver, copper, and oil. Bitcoin futures rose above the $0.077 million mark to a record high.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have plummeted. The market currently expects to cut interest rates by only 57 basis points in 2025, and the total rate cut from now until the end of 2025 is expected to be less than 100 basis points. J.P. Morgan expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates only once a quarter starting March 2025. Economist Nomura predicts that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates only once in 2025 and raise the terminal interest rate forecast by 50 basis points to 3.625%. They expect Trump to raise tariffs, which will drive up inflation and cause a moderate slowdown in growth in the short term.

Trump's tariff policy has raised concerns about global inflation. ECB Vice President Guindos said that if Trump implements the tariff plan, global economic growth and inflation may face a devastating impact. ECB Governing Council and Bank of France President Villeroy said that Trump's victory in the election increased the risks facing the global economy. However, Goldman Sachs expects the ECB to increase interest rate cuts. Furthermore, the Eurozone's comprehensive and service sector PMI both improved in October, and both stood on the boom-bust line and returned to expansion.

Interest rate cuts have plummeted. The market currently expects to cut interest rates by only 57 basis points in 2025. The total interest rate cut from now until the end of 2025 is expected to be less than 100 basis points (less than 4 interest rate cuts of 25 basis points)

On Wednesday, November 6, Trump announced his victory, and the explosive growth of the “Trump Deal” supported the S&P, NASDAQ, and Dow to reach record highs. The Dow rose to a high of more than 1,550 points, the best increase in two years, with the Russell Small-Cap Stock Index leading the way with a rise of more than 5.8%. Tesla surged nearly 15% to a two-year high. Trump Media Tech closed up nearly 6% after rising more than 34.8%. At one point, it triggered a suspension of trading. Expectations of deregulation boosted oil, steel, and cryptocurrency stocks, and the Bank of Philadelphia Index closed up more than 10%. PV stocks collapsed across the board, and the decline narrowed at the end of the session:

The three major US stock indices rose in unison. The S&P 500 closed up 146.28 points, or 2.53%, to 5929.04 points. The Dow, which is closely related to the economic cycle, closed up 1508.05 points, or 3.57%, to 4,3729.93 points. The NASDAQ, which has the majority of technology stocks, closed up 544.29 points, or 2.95%, to 18983.47 points. The Nasdaq 100 Index closed up 2.74%. The Nasdaq Technology Market Capitalization Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of NASDAQ's 100 technology constituents, closed up 2.65%. The Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index, which is more sensitive to the economic cycle, closed up 5.84%. The VIX Panic Index closed down 20.11% to 16.37.
The S&P 500 closed up 2.53%, the biggest increase in history after the election
ETFs in the US stock industry closed mostly higher. Regional bank ETFs rose more than 13%, banking ETFs rose nearly 12%, financial ETFs rose more than 6%, aviation ETFs rose more than 5%, energy ETFs, optional consumer ETFs, and online stock index ETFs each rose at least 3%, and science sector ETFs and semiconductor ETFs each rose at least 2.5%. Meanwhile, consumer goods ETFs and utility ETFs both fell by more than 1%.
Most of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 index rose. The financial sector closed up 6.16%, the industrial, optional consumption, and energy sectors rose at least 3.5%, the technology sector rose 2.52%, the telecommunications sector rose about 2.4%, the consumer goods sector closed down nearly 1.6%, and the real estate sector fell more than 2.6%.
In terms of investment and research strategy: Vincent Juvyns, a global market strategist at Morgan Asset Management, believes that after Trump wins the election, tax cuts and fiscal measures may benefit a wide range of industries and domestic companies, and that the rise in the US stock market will spread from technology and blue chips to other sectors, especially small and medium capitalization stocks.
The “Seven Sisters of Science and Technology” have gone up and down a lot. Tesla closed up 14.75%, Google A closed up 3.99%, and Nvidia closed up 4.07% to a new high, continuing to surpass Apple as the largest market capitalization in the world. Microsoft closed up 2.12%, and Amazon closed up 3.8% to a record high. Apple closed down 0.33%. Meta closed down 0.07%.
Tesla's stock price closed up nearly 15%, the highest level since July 2023
Chip stocks are mostly higher. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed up 3.12%. Industry ETF SOXX closed up 2.92%. Nvidia doubled the long ETF and closed up 8.08%. AMD closed up 2.43%, Broadcom closed up 3.25%, and Ansemi Semiconductor closed up 2.95%. Arm Holdings closed up 2.87%, Micron Technology closed up 6.01%, and Intel closed up 7.42%. Qualcomm closed up 4.27%, and the three-quarter report was positive. Stronger demand for mobile phones made the company optimistic about its fourth quarter performance. At one point, it rose more than 12% after the market. Asmack ADR closed down 2.22%. TSMC's ADR closed down 1.3%, and Ke Lei closed down 0.1%
AI concept stocks rose and fell less. Ultramicrocomputer closed down 18.05%. Preliminary sales estimates for the third quarter and guidance for the fourth quarter fell short of expectations. Barclays lowered the target share price of ultra-microcomputers from $42 to $25, and J.P. Morgan downgraded the rating to “reduce holdings,” with a target share price of 23 US dollars. Loop Capital lowered its target price from $100 to $35. BigBear.ai closed down 9.66% and Palantir closed up 8.61%. Dell Technologies closed up 3.66%. SoundHound AI, an AI voice company owned by Nvidia, closed up 5.96%, CrowdStrike 4.04%, C3.ai 4.17%, Snowflake 4.22%, Oracle 5.51%, BullFrog AI closed 8.19%, and Serve Robotics closed up 2.85%.
China Securities generally declined. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed down 1.83% after falling 3.8%. Among ETFs, the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) closed down 2.11%. China Internet Index ETF (KWEB) closed down 2.01%. FTSE China triple-long ETF (YINN) closed down 8.73%. The FTSE A50 index closed down 0.32% during the night session to 13551.000 points.
Among popular Chinese securities, new car builders collectively declined, and Xiaopeng Motor closed down 3.98%. The company will develop Ultra models to service Robotaxis, and the fourth-generation robot will be named Iron. ZEEKR closed down 5.97%, Ideal Auto closed down 3.25%, and NIO closed down 5.3%. Photovoltaic stocks generally fell; Daxin Energy closed down 8.11%, Artes Solar closed down 19.9%, and Jingke Energy closed down 14.31%. Fangduoduo closed down 7.38%, Ctrip down 1.99%, Alibaba 2.5%, Baidu 1.04%, Station B 4.57%, Tiger Securities 1.34%, NetEase 0.22%, JD 3.4%, New Oriental, 2.93%, and Pinduoduo 1.29%.
Investors speculate that Trump's entry into the White House will benefit fossil fuels, and energy stocks have generally risen. US Oil Services Baker Hughes closed up 10.78%, EQT resources up 7.56%, KMI up 6.64%, Chevron closed up 2.81%, and ExxonMobil closed up 1.71%.
US PV stocks collapsed across the board at the beginning of the session. Sunrun closed down 29.63%, Array closed down 21.94%, PV inverter supplier Enphase Energy closed down 16.82%, and Daiichi Solar closed down 10.13%.
PV stocks plummeted
Blockchain concept stocks rose by more than 11.4%, Coinbase closed up 31.11%, Cipher Mining rose more than 31%, Riot Platforms rose more than 26.1%, doubled the Bitcoin ETF rose 19.7%, Robinhood rose 19.6%, the “large Bitcoin holder” Weitse Investment MSR rose by about 13.2%, Canan Technology ADR increased by about 13%, and Bitcoin ETF BITB rose by about 9.4%.
Trump's victory made investors expect US regulators to loosen regulations, causing the Bank of Philadelphia Index to soar by more than 10%. The regional banking index closed up 13.47% to 133.26 points. Among the major Wall Street banks, Wells Fargo closed up 13.11%, Morgan Stanley closed up 11.61%, Goldman Sachs 13.1%, Citigroup closed up 8.42%, J.P. Morgan closed 11.54%, and Bank of America closed up 8.43%.
Other key stocks: (1) Trump Media Technology (DJT) closed up 5.94% after rising more than 34.8% at the beginning of the session. (2) Novo Nordisk ADR closed down 4.33%, Q3 net profit increased 21% year-on-year, and Wegovy's revenue surged 79%, but narrowed the annual sales guidance range. (3) Pharmacy chain CVS closed up 11.33%, and net revenue for the third quarter exceeded expectations. (4) The private prison stock American Corrections Corporation (CXW) closed up 28.98%, and GEO Corrections Group closed up 42.1%.

Trump's election caused European stocks to take back their earlier gains and close down. The market worried that Trump implemented the tariff plan, European auto stocks generally fell. BMW fell 6.58%, Mercedes-Benz Group fell 6.44%, Volkswagen fell 4.27%, and Stellantis rose 1.75%, but announced layoffs of more than 1,000 people. European renewable energy stocks fell more than 10%, Vestas Wind Technology closed down 12.82%, fell more than 23% in two days, and Woxu Energy fell 12.79% due to concerns that the Trump administration might suspend approval of new projects:

The pan-European STOXX 600 index closed down 0.54%. Eurozone STOXX 50 closed down 1.43%. The FTSE Pan-European Merit 300 Index closed down 0.47%. BMW closed down 6.58%. The automobile division's revenue in the third quarter was 27.85 billion euros, down 13% year on year, and the company's profit margin fell to its lowest level in four years.
Germany's DAX 30 index closed down 1.13%. France's CAC 40 closed down 0.51%. The Dutch AEX Index closed down 0.83%. Italy's FTSE MIB index closed down 1.54%. The UK FTSE 100 closed down 0.07%. Spain's IBEX 35 closed down 2.9%.

Trump's victory made investors fearful and uneasy about the risk of the US federal government widening its fiscal deficit and rising inflation due to tax cuts and tariff policies. Traders cut their bets on the Fed's interest rate cut next year, and US bonds were drastically sold off. The yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds once rose 23 basis points, the biggest one-day increase since 2020. US 10-year Treasury yields once soared by 20 basis points, the biggest increase since April 10:

US debt: At the end of the session, the yield on the US 10-year benchmark treasury bond rose 15.48 basis points to 4.4256%, “opened low” at 08:00 Beijing time and fell to 4.2481% on the new day, but then quickly rebounded and formed a significant rise, rising to 4.4768% at 20:28, approaching 4.4911% at the top of July 1 and 4.6357% at the top of May 29. The two-year US Treasury yield rose 8.94 basis points to 4.2659% and rose to 4.3073% at 11:01, approaching 4.4059% at the top of July 30 and 4.9975% of the top on May 29.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch believes that if Trump comes to power and does fiscal expansion, then the Federal Reserve may raise neutral interest rate expectations. Furthermore, if the new president imposes significant tariffs, the Federal Reserve may suspend interest rate cuts due to considerations of inflation and the impact on economic growth.
US Treasury yields soared after Trump's election victory
European bonds: At the end of trading, the 10-year German bond yield fell 2.0 basis points to 2.405%. The two-year German bond yield fell 12.6 basis points to 2.176%. The 10-year British bond yield rose 3.3 basis points. The yield on two-year British bonds remained roughly flat. The yield on 10-year French bonds rose 1.1 basis points, and the yield on 10-year Italian bonds rose 6.4 basis points.
Goldman Sachs economist Sven Jari Stehn predicts that after Trump is re-elected as US President, the ECB will cut interest rates by an additional 25 basis points in July 2025. Meanwhile, the SNB and the Bank of Sweden are also expected to cut interest rates by an additional 25 basis points, while predictions for the Bank of England and the Bank of Norway remain unchanged. The Eurozone's real GDP will be impacted by 0.5%, and the UK will be moderately impacted by 0.4%.

“The day after the US election,” the US dollar index rose more than 1.6% to 105, reaching its highest level in nearly four months. The yen fell more than 1.9% to nearly 155, to its lowest level in three months. The offshore renminbi fell more than 1,000 points, falling below 7.20 yuan for the first time in more than three months. The euro fell more than 1.8% to its worst day in more than four months, but the Mexican peso turned up intraday, the Brazilian real led emerging market currencies, and Bitcoin futures reached a record high of 7.7 US dollars intraday:

US dollar: The US dollar index rose 1.66% to 105.137 points at the end of the session, recovering the 200-day EMA (the technical indicator is tentatively reported at 103.849 points) and has been rising throughout the day. The intraday trading range was 104.043-105.441 points, approaching the top of 106.130 points on June 26. The Bloomberg US Dollar Index rose 1.26% to 1269.90 points.
The Bloomberg Dollar Index hit a 12-month high, the biggest one-day increase since February 2023
Non-US currencies: EUR/USD fell 1.84% to 1.0729; GBP/USD fell 1.23% to 1.2883; USD/CHF rose 1.49% to 0.8762. Among commodity currency pairs, the Australian dollar fell 1.01% against the US dollar, the New Zealand dollar fell 1.08% against the US dollar, and the US dollar rose 0.86% against the Canadian dollar. The Swedish krona fell 1.47% against the US dollar, and the Norwegian krone fell 1.04% against the US dollar.
Yen: The yen fell 1.95% against the US dollar at the end of the session to 154.58 yen. Wells Fargo pointed out that if US Treasury yields continue to rise, the yen may fall below 155 or even hit a low of 161.95 against the US dollar. The Bank of Japan may respond to this by releasing signals or raising interest rates early.
Offshore RMB (CNH): Offshore RMB fell 1,019 points against the US dollar to 7.2036 yuan at the end of the session. Overall intraday trading was in the 7.0906-7.2096 yuan range, approaching the bottom of 7.2521 yuan on August 2.
Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin futures, the largest market capitalization leader, rose 9.63% at the end of the session to 76585.00 US dollars. At 04:59 Beijing time, it once rose to a record high of 77140.00 US dollars. Spot Bitcoin has risen more than 9.7% in the last 24 hours, reaching a record high of $76,475.38 at 04:54. The second-largest Ethereum futures rose 11.11% to $2711.00, and rose to $2730.50 at 05:17 Beijing time.
Bitcoin futures burst to a new high of $0.077 million

US EIA crude oil supply hit a new high since August. The strengthening of the US dollar put pressure on oil prices. The decline in US oil fluctuated and declined. After falling more than 3%, the decline narrowed to more than 0.4%, but US stocks once turned up and rose nearly 1% intraday:

US Oil: WTI crude oil futures for December closed down $0.30, or nearly 0.42%, to $71.69 per barrel. US oil continued its earlier decline. The low pre-market drop of more than 3.1% hit 69.74 US dollars, then rebounded rapidly. US stocks rose as high as nearly 0.9% in early trading and rose above $72.60.
Oil: Brent crude oil futures for January closed down 0.61 US dollars, down about 0.81% to 74.92 US dollars/barrel. Oil continued its earlier decline. US stocks fell to a pre-market low of nearly 2.9% to 73.30 US dollars, then quickly rebounded. US stocks rose as high as 0.6% in early trading to push 76 US dollars.
According to the news, Citi believes that Trump's victory in the US election is a net negative for the oil price trend. According to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), US crude oil supply hit a new high since August. US EIA crude oil inventories increased by 2.149 million barrels last week, higher than analysts' expectations of 1.35 million barrels, falling 0.515 million barrels in the previous week, and gasoline and refined oil inventories did not fall but rose.
Natural gas: US natural gas futures closed up 2.88% in December to $2.7470 per million British thermal units. TTF Dutch gas futures, the benchmark for Europe, rose 0.25% to 40.500 euros/megawatt-hour. They rebounded in a V-shape and turned higher at the end of the session. ICE British gas futures fell 0.33% to 102.350 ps/kcal.
US oil fluctuated. After falling below $70, it rebounded above $72, and eventually closed down

Trump's victory boosted the dollar's strengthening and hit a four-month high. Coupled with potential tariff policies that could raise inflation and cause the pace of the Fed's interest rate cuts to stagnate. Both factors pressured lower spot funds to hit the biggest one-day decline in five months. The deepest intraday decline of more than 3% fell to a three-week low of $2,660, and the deepest drop in the spot silver market was nearly 5.6% to the lowest in more than three weeks~~levels~~：

Gold: COMEX December gold futures fell 2.97% to $2668.00 per ounce at the end of the session, continuing to break away from the all-time high of $2801.80 set on October 30. Spot gold maintained a downward trend throughout the day. For the first time since October 16, the lowest pre-market drop of more than 3.3% fell to 2,650 US dollars. At the end of the session, it fell 3.09% to 2659.06 US dollars/ounce. Since it rose to a record high of 2790.10 US dollars on October 31, the cumulative correction was more than 4.57%.
Silver: COMEX December silver futures fell 4.59% to $31.270 per ounce at the end of the session. Spot silver maintained its decline throughout the day. US stocks fell to a pre-market low of nearly 5.6% to 30.80 US dollars. For the first time since October 15, it fell 4.53% at the end of the session to 31.1778 US dollars/ounce.
Among London industrial metals, Luntong and Lun Zn closed down more than 4%, and Lunxi also fell by more than 3%: Luntong closed down 396 US dollars, a decrease of more than 4.06%, to 9,343 US dollars/ton. COMEX copper futures fell 5.28% to $4.2387 per pound. Lunlu closed down 44 US dollars to 2,616 US dollars/ton. Lunzine closed down $130, down about 4.19% to $2,973 per ton. Lunn lead closed up $20 to $2,048 per tonne. Lunnickel closed up 4 US dollars to 16,127 US dollars/ton. Renxi closed down $1002, down about 3.10% to $31,347 per ton. Luncobalt closed at 24,300 US dollars/ton.
The strong dollar suppresses the continued decline in the price of gold

The following is an update before 23:00 Beijing time on November 6

On Wednesday, November 6, Trump announced his victory. The explosive growth of the “Trump Deal” supported the S&P, NASDAQ, and Dow to reach record highs. At one point, the Dow rose nearly 1,350 points, and the Russell small-cap stock index once rose more than 4.8% to hit the biggest intraday gain in the past two years. Tesla surged more than 15%, and Trump's media technology surged more than 34.8%, and the increase narrowed after WeeStrategy Investment, the “big Bitcoin holder” rose by nearly 15.7%. Trump's victory made investors hope that US regulators would untie regulations, Wall Street financial giants collectively strengthened. The Bank of Philadelphia Index once rose about 8.5%, and Wells Fargo once rose nearly 16%:

The three major US stock indices rose in unison. At one point, the S&P 500 index rose more than 2.1% to a record high. The Dow, which is closely linked to the economic cycle, once rose nearly 1,350 points, or 3.2%, to a record high. The NASDAQ, which is dominated by technology stocks, once rose nearly 2.3% to a record high. The Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index, which is more sensitive to the economic cycle, once rose more than 4.8%, the biggest intraday gain since January 2023.
At the beginning of the US stock market, banking ETFs rose 9.16%, financial ETFs rose 5.19%, energy ETFs and optional consumer ETFs rose about 2.6%, and semiconductor ETFs lagged behind by rising 1.8%.
In terms of investment and research strategy: Vincent Juvyns, a global market strategist at Morgan Asset Management, believes that after Trump wins the election, the performance of the US stock market will spread from technology and blue chip stocks to other sectors, especially small and medium capitalization stocks. Trump's planned tax cuts and fiscal measures could benefit a wide range of industries and domestic companies, boosting small to medium capitalization firms.
Most of the “Seven Sisters of Science and Technology” have risen. Tesla once rose nearly 15.2%, Google A once rose more than 3.4%, Nvidia rose more than 3.3%, Microsoft once rose nearly 1.6%, and Amazon once rose nearly 1%, setting a record high in the market. Apple opened low and fell more than 1%, then rose nearly 1%. Meta once dropped more than 3%.
Chip stocks are mostly higher. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index once rose more than 2.5%, Nvidia doubled its ETF and once rose more than 6.5%, Intel once rose more than 5.8%, Broadcom once rose more than 3.4%, AMD once rose more than 2.6%, and TSMC once fell nearly 2.7%.
AI concept stocks rose and fell less. C3.ai once rose more than 6.3%, Palantir once rose more than 6%, while ultra-microcomputers once fell close to 25.6%. The third-quarter sales estimates and fourth-quarter sales guidance fell short of expectations. Barclays lowered the target share price of ultra-microcomputers from $42 to $25, and J.P. Morgan downgraded the rating to “reduced holdings,” with a target share price of $23. Loop Capital lowered its target price from $100 to $35.
China Securities generally declined. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index once fell nearly 3.8%. Among popular Chinese securities, Xiaopeng Motor once fell by more than 8%. The company will develop an Ultra model to serve Robotaxi, and the fourth-generation robot will be named Iron. ZEEKR once fell more than 11%, photovoltaic stocks generally fell, Daxin Energy once fell nearly 8.4%, Artes Solar once fell more than 16.3%, Jingke Energy once fell nearly 14%, and Fangduoduo once fell more than 9%. Alibaba once fell more than 4%, and JD fell more than 7.4% at one point.
US PV stocks collapsed across the board at the beginning of the session. Sunrun once fell by about 22.59%, Array once fell by about 19.2%, photovoltaic inverter supplier Enphase Energy once fell by about 16.98%, and Daiichi Solar once fell by more than 15.7%.
Expectations of deregulation caused the Bank of Philadelphia Index to soar more than 8% at one point. The Bank of Philadelphia Index once rose more than 8.5%, the biggest intraday gain since November 2020. Trump's victory made investors expect that US regulators would loosen regulations. Among the major Wall Street banks, Wells Fargo once rose nearly 16%, Morgan Stanley once rose about 9.69%, Goldman Sachs once rose about 9.63%, Citigroup once rose about 8.63%, J.P. Morgan Chase once rose about 7.88%, and Bank of America once rose about 7.29%.
Other key stocks: (1) Trump Media Technology (DJT) rose more than 34.8% at the beginning of the session, then regained most of its gains. (2) Novo Nordisk's ADR once fell by more than 3.1%, Q3 net profit increased 21% year-on-year, and Wegovy's revenue surged 79%. (3) Pharmacy chain CVS once rose more than 14.3%, and net revenue for the third quarter exceeded expectations.

[The following updates were made before 22:30]

After Trump announced his victory in the election, US stocks continued to rise before the market. The “Trump deal” heated up sharply. The US dollar, US bond yields, and Bitcoin collectively surged, and barrels of oil plummeted. Trump Media Technology Group (DJT) once surged by nearly 60% before the market, but now the increase has narrowed to 30%. Tesla has risen more than 12% before the market, and European stocks have weakened slightly.

According to CCTV news, according to preliminary estimates recently released by several US media, Trump has now obtained 277 electoral votes, more than the 270 electoral votes required to win the election, and locked in the victory ahead of schedule. Meanwhile, Harris received 224 votes for the time being.

In terms of other individual stocks, Novo Nordisk rose more than 5%. Financial data showed that sales of the company's diet drug Wegovy surged in the third quarter. Ultra-microcomputers fell more than 19% before the market, and the company's preliminary sales estimates for the third quarter and sales guidance for the fourth quarter fell short of expectations.

The three major US stock indices continued to rise. Dow futures rose more than 3%, surging more than 1,300 points, for the first time since November 2022; S&P 500 futures rose 2%, NASDAQ futures rose 1.8%, and Russell 2000 small-cap futures surged more than 6%.
The increase in European stocks narrowed, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell by 0.39%. The increase in the European Stoxx 600 index narrowed to 0.2%, the German DAX30 index fell 0.19%, and the increase in the British FTSE 100 index and the French CAC40 index narrowed to 0.2%.
The pre-market rise of the US stock Trump Media Technology Group (DJT) once extended to 58%, but now it has fallen back to 30%. Tesla is up more than 15% in the premarket.
The US dollar index rose to its highest level in a year during the day and is now at 104.78.
US bonds of various matures suffered a severe setback. US 30-year Treasury yields rose 23 basis points, the biggest single-day increase since 2020. The 10-year US Treasury yield soared 20 basis points to 4.47%, and the 2-year US Treasury yield rose by more than 12 basis points.
Bitcoin reached a record high of 75,000 US dollars/coin, rising more than 8% during the day. Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the US, rose more than 12% before the market, and Microstrategy, the listed company that holds the most Bitcoin in the world, rose more than 9%.
Global commodities have declined, and the price of gold and silver barrel oil has plummeted. Spot gold fell below 2,700 US dollars/ounce, and the decline quickly expanded to 3%; spot silver once plummeted 4% to 31.34 US dollars/ounce; WTI crude oil plummeted 3.00% during the day to 69.82 US dollars/barrel, and Brent crude oil fell 2.7% to 73.28 US dollars/barrel. COMEX copper futures fell more than 4.5% to $4.2715/lb. LME copper fell nearly 3% to $9,452 per ton.
The exchange rate of non-US currencies against the US dollar fell collectively: the decline of the Mexican peso against the US dollar extended to 3%, the biggest decline in three months. The euro fell 1.88% against the US dollar to 1.0724. The increase in the dollar against the yen extended 1.7% to 154.19. GBP/USD quickly fell to a low at the end of October, falling below the 200-day moving average. The decline of the Australian dollar against the US dollar extended to 1%, and the Korean won fell to a new low since 2022. The offshore renminbi fell by more than 1,000 points per day and is now reported at 7.2083.

[Update at 21:47]

The decline in spot gold widened to 3% and is now reported at US$2662.13/oz.

The increase in European stocks narrowed, and the European Stoxx 50 Index and the German DAX 30 Index all declined.

[Updated at 21:29]

The decline in spot gold extended to 2%, reaching a minimum of $2677.97 per ounce.

Spot silver fell more than 4% during the day to $31.21 per ounce.

At one point, oil and US oil fell 3%.

LME copper fell nearly 3%, to a minimum of 9,350 US dollars/ton.

[19:56 update]

Spot gold fell below $2,700, a decline of more than 1.6% during the day.

Offshore RMB fell 1,065 points against the US dollar during the day to 7.2083.

[19:37 update]

US 30-year Treasury yields rose 23 basis points, the biggest one-day increase since 2020.

The won fell to a new low since 2022 against the US dollar.

[19:12 update]

The yield on the US 30-year Treasury rose more than 20 basis points to 4.649%.

The US dollar index once rose to its highest level since November 2023, and is now up 1.32% to 104.78.

[18:16 update]

The three major US stock indices accelerated their rise. Dow futures rose close to 3%, and jumped more than 1,000 points in a single day for the first time since November 2022.

European stocks continued to rise, with the British FTSE 100 Index and France's CAC40 Index rising more than 1%.

The US dollar continued to be high and is now at 104.78.

US Treasury yields rose collectively. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by more than 14 bps during the day, and the 2-year US Treasury yield increased by more than 12 bps.

Gold continued to decline, with an intraday decline of 0.65% to $2725.94 per ounce.

Bitcoin's intraday gain narrowed to 7.05% to $0.0736 million/coin.

[17:00 update]

Tesla's US stocks rose more than 11% before the market, Trump Media Technology rose more than 58%; Wegovy, a “major Bitcoin holder”, rose more than 11%; Novo Nordisk rose more than 5%, and sales of the diet drug Wegovy surged in the third quarter.

[16:15 update]

The European Stoxx 600 index increased its increase to 1.2%.

[16:03 update]

European stocks opened slightly higher. The German DAX30 index rose 0.47%, the British FTSE 100 index rose 0.79%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.34%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.27%.

[Updated at 15:43]

S&P 500 futures increased to 2%, while Nasdaq futures rose more than 1.7%. India's Nifty Index and Sensex Index both rose 1%.

[Updated at 14:40]

EUR/USD fell 2% during the day and is now at 1.0710. European Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.1% during the day, after falling 1% previously.

[13:54 update]

The decline in European Stoxx 50 futures extended to 1%, reaching the lowest point of the day.

[11:42 update]

The increase in the US dollar index increased to 1.64% to 105.12. EUR/USD fell 1.88% to 1.0724. The increase in the dollar against the yen extended 1.7% to 154.19. The offshore renminbi fell 1% against the US dollar to 7.1719.

[11:08 update]

Bitcoin reached a record high of 75,000 US dollars/coin.

[11:00 update]

US stock futures extended gains, Dow futures rose more than 1.2%, and S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures rose more than 1.1%.

[Updated at 10:35]

By the close of early trading, the Nikkei 225 Index was up 2.3%, and the TSE Index was up 1.9%.

The increase in the US dollar index extended to 1.1%. Bitcoin's intraday gains extended to 5%.

[10:23]

The dollar strengthened, and the decline of the Mexican peso against the US dollar extended to 2%. The Nikkei 225 index increased its increase to 2%.

The increase in US stock futures has increased. Dow futures are now up 1.1%, S&P 500 futures are up more than 0.9%, and Nasdaq 100 futures are up nearly 0.6%.

[Updated at 10:13]

The US dollar index rose nearly 1% during the day to a new high in July. EUR/USD weakened, and EUR/USD's intraday decline extended to 1%. USD/JPY's intraday gains extended to 1%.

Big

US 10-year Treasury yields rose 10 basis points.

[Updated at 9:04]

The US dollar index continued to rise in the short term and is currently up 0.75% to 104.20. EUR/USD declined, falling 0.82% to 1.0839 during the day. The offshore renminbi fell below 7.14 against the US dollar and fell nearly 400 points during the day. The increase in the dollar against the yen extended to 0.83% to 152.89. Bitcoin's increase extended to almost 3%.

[8:44 update]

The decline of the Mexican peso against the US dollar extended to 1%.

[Updated at 8:37]

The Nikkei 225 index increased its increase to 1%. Japan's 10-year treasury bond futures fell to 144.2.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more

特朗普点燃美元！美股和比特币新高，道指涨1500点，小盘股飙涨，美债、金属重挫

Trump sparks a rally in the US dollar! US stocks and bitcoin hit new highs, with the Dow rising 1500 points, small cap stocks surging, while US bonds and metals plummet.

以下为北京时间11月6日23:00以前更新内容

The following is an update before 23:00 Beijing time on November 6

Risk Disclaimer

Statement