Looking ahead, many Wall Street analysts continue to be bullish on US stocks, even reaching 6,600 points.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that on Wednesday, after Trump won the US presidential election in 2024, the US stock market rose sharply, and all three major indices reached record highs. Looking ahead, many Wall Street analysts continue to be bullish on US stocks, even reaching 6,600 points.
After the US election results were announced, Goldman Sachs reiterated its forecast that the S&P 500 index would reach 6,300 points within 12 months.
The bank's view on US stocks has not changed with Trump's election as the 47th president of the United States. It is expected that by 2025, strong profit growth will support the rise in the market.
Goldman Sachs maintained its 12-month forecast for the S&P 500 index, setting the target point at 6,300 points. The bank said strong profit performance will support this growth; the market is expected to continue to rise until 2025. Goldman Sachs's optimism is supported by forecasts of 11% profit per share growth next year.
Goldman Sachs also mentioned a possible surge after the election, stressing that lower political uncertainty will have a favorable impact on the market, in line with past presidential election years.
David Kostin, chief US stock strategist at Goldman Sachs, said, “A key driver of the recent stock market will be a reduction in political uncertainty. This dynamic will usually bring strong year-end returns during the presidential election year. As election uncertainty is resolved, the elasticity of recent economic growth data and the Federal Reserve's continued interest rate cuts support a healthy short-term outlook for the US stock market. We believe investors and business executives will now focus on four issues relating to the US stock market: (1) post-election trends in the S&P 500 index; (2) stock investors' positions; (3) rotation within the market, including rotation related to trade and tax policies; and (4) companiesmergers and acquisitionsand prospects for IPO activities.”
Goldman Sachs has observed that historically, the S&P 500 index has typically returned 4% between election day in November and the end of the calendar year. If this trend continues, the index could reach nearly 6015 points by the end of 2024, which is equivalent to a 22 times forward price-earnings ratio.
Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise, expressed similar views, saying that the company's fundamentals are steady, profits are expected to grow in the next few quarters, and stock prices reflect a healthy environment.
The strategist added, “Stocks have maintained very healthy gains so far this year, and all 11 industries are expected to see profit growth in 2025. A normalized level of inflation should continue to ease pressure on consumers and businesses over time. Notably, lower interest rates may help increase support for lending activities, business investments, and increase the affordability of expensive consumer goods such as homes and cars. America is working hard, consumers/businesses are spending. As a result, America's growth trend is still the envy of the world.”
Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, said in a report: “The market hates uncertainty. Now that the election is officially over, the stock market is soaring today. Optimism about tax cuts, the still-dovish US Federal Reserve, and a potentially better economy are some of them, but the reality is that the economy has been fairly stable throughout the year, so this is really nothing new. Our opinion is that US stocks will return to a regular bull market.”
Yung-yu Ma, chief investment officer at BMO Wealth Management, said: “Favourable macro drivers remain dominant, and the prospect of Republican sweeps and tax cuts has increased market enthusiasm. More details on tariff policies or continued rise in long-term US Treasury yields may ease this sentiment in the next few weeks, but for the past two years, we have been saying that the environment is conducive to risk taking, and so is it.”
Evercore ISI even gave a more optimistic forecast, saying that by mid-2025, the S&P 500 index will rise to 6,600 points, and that Trump's “decisive and undisputed” election as President of the United States and that the Republican Party may win a big victory, “this is no one's basic prediction.”
Evercore also said that the outlook for deregulation supports the stock market.
Jacob Manoukian, head of US investment strategy at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, also pointed out favorable regulatory factors.
The bank said, “The market's reaction to the election results has always been very strong, and the US stock market has risen sharply. Small-cap stocks and regional banks in particular benefit from investors' confidence in procyclical policies and potential deregulation. This reflects broader optimism about the resilience and growth prospects of the US economy as these industries prepare to take advantage of increased M&A opportunities and a favorable regulatory environment.”
The Barclays cross-asset research team said, “After a decisive presidential election, our first opinion on the financial market is that there is still room for the dollar to rebound, US long-term interest rates reflect the election results faster, the US stock market is likely to rise at the end of the year, and although the European stock market already reflects tariff risks, it may continue to lag behind.”
Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe, co-founders of DataTrek Research, concluded: “Capital is rarely destroyed; generally, it just flows around. Capital simply flows through the global financial system looking for the most popular and effective use on a relative (not absolute) basis. This is the main reason why the US stock market outperforms other stocks in the world, and why the US dollar remains the world's reserve currency despite the relatively high federal deficit. This is not to say that all American companies are the best, nor that the US government system is the best structure. On the contrary, both are better than most liquidity alternatives.”