On November 7, Caixin reported (Reporter: Luo Yichen) that the continuous advancement of the old-for-new policy has attracted attention to the impact on the furniture industry. During the earnings conference for the third quarter of 2024 held this morning, xilinmen furniture (603008.SH) management mentioned that since October, the coverage of the old-for-new policy has gradually expanded to the furniture industry, with a significant increase in regional coverage and subsidy intensity.

However, the company's management did not directly respond to questions regarding whether the end demand situation has significantly improved since October compared to Q3. They only mentioned that driven by the stimulus of the old-for-new subsidy policy, and combined with the company's fourth quarter honeymoon sales promotion, the Singles' Day sales, and other major promotional activities, the company as a whole is fully focused on the fourth quarter.

Furthermore, President Chen Yicheng also mentioned that the subsidy policy of the old-for-new has increased the proportion of set sales orders, and the company is increasing the price range of individual items for this year's Singles' Day, selling higher-end categories online.

It is reported that in response to the current old-for-new national subsidy policy, xilinmen furniture mainly assists offline franchisees in participating in subsidy activities. In terms of online channels, the company mainly provides national subsidy subsidies through jd.com's self-operated platform and Tmall Miaozhu platform.

As leading companies, both xilinmen furniture and Mudan Stock (001323.SZ) are facing challenges. In the first three quarters of this year, xilinmen furniture's revenue and net income decreased year-on-year. Meanwhile, Mudan Stock performed slightly better, with revenue and performance in the first three quarters holding steady compared to the same period last year. Both companies urgently need to find new sources of growth.

In this context, the old-for-new policy is highly anticipated. According to xilinmen furniture management, this round of policy is expected to boost domestic furniture consumption demand, promote the recovery of the furniture consumption market, and elevate the concentration of the industry. Data shows that among major furniture categories, the concentration of mattresses is low. Based on the shipment amount calculation for 2020, the CR5 of the mattress industry in the USA (top five companies in the industry) accounts for nearly 70%, while the CR5 of the mattress industry in China is less than 20%.

However, it should be noted that in the past statements from mattress manufacturers, compared to the US market, there are significant gaps in China's mattress consumption in terms of concentration, penetration rate, and consumption frequency. The industry recognizes that after years of high-speed development, how to continue activating latent demand and further narrowing the gap remains a considerable challenge.