Red Violet, Inc. (NASDAQ:RDVT) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 28% after a shaky period beforehand. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 69% in the last year.

Since its price has surged higher, Red Violet may be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 28.5x, since almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios under 18x and even P/E's lower than 11x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

With earnings growth that's superior to most other companies of late, Red Violet has been doing relatively well. It seems that many are expecting the strong earnings performance to persist, which has raised the P/E. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like Red Violet's to be considered reasonable.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 462%. Although, its longer-term performance hasn't been as strong with three-year EPS growth being relatively non-existent overall. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.

Turning to the outlook, the next year should bring diminished returns, with earnings decreasing 66% as estimated by the only analyst watching the company. With the market predicted to deliver 15% growth , that's a disappointing outcome.

With this information, we find it concerning that Red Violet is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company reject the analyst cohort's pessimism and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as these declining earnings are likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

Red Violet's P/E is flying high just like its stock has during the last month. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

We've established that Red Violet currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E for a company whose earnings are forecast to decline. When we see a poor outlook with earnings heading backwards, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Red Violet, and understanding should be part of your investment process.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Red Violet. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.