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Hefei Jingsong Intelligent TechnologyLtd's (SHSE:688251) Profits May Be Overstating Its True Earnings Potential

Simply Wall St ·  Nov 8 07:01

Hefei Jingsong Intelligent Technology Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:688251) posted some decent earnings, but shareholders didn't react strongly. We think that they might be concerned about some underlying details that our analysis found.

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SHSE:688251 Earnings and Revenue History November 7th 2024

A Closer Look At Hefei Jingsong Intelligent TechnologyLtd's Earnings

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

For the year to September 2024, Hefei Jingsong Intelligent TechnologyLtd had an accrual ratio of 0.35. Unfortunately, that means its free cash flow was a lot less than its statutory profit, which makes us doubt the utility of profit as a guide. Over the last year it actually had negative free cash flow of CN¥115m, in contrast to the aforementioned profit of CN¥67.4m. Coming off the back of negative free cash flow last year, we imagine some shareholders might wonder if its cash burn of CN¥115m, this year, indicates high risk. However, that's not all there is to consider. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part.

Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Hefei Jingsong Intelligent TechnologyLtd.

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

The fact that the company had unusual items boosting profit by CN¥12m, in the last year, probably goes some way to explain why its accrual ratio was so weak. We can't deny that higher profits generally leave us optimistic, but we'd prefer it if the profit were to be sustainable. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. If Hefei Jingsong Intelligent TechnologyLtd doesn't see that contribution repeat, then all else being equal we'd expect its profit to drop over the current year.

Our Take On Hefei Jingsong Intelligent TechnologyLtd's Profit Performance

Hefei Jingsong Intelligent TechnologyLtd had a weak accrual ratio, but its profit did receive a boost from unusual items. Considering all this we'd argue Hefei Jingsong Intelligent TechnologyLtd's profits probably give an overly generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. When we did our research, we found 3 warning signs for Hefei Jingsong Intelligent TechnologyLtd (1 is concerning!) that we believe deserve your full attention.

Our examination of Hefei Jingsong Intelligent TechnologyLtd has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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