The Financial Services Association, November 8, reported that the market opened low and went high yesterday, with the GEM index leading the way. The daily turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.51 trillion yen, down 57.8 billion from the previous trading day. Overall, the last individual stocks rose more or less. More than 4,500 individual stocks rose in the entire market, and nearly 200 stocks rose or stopped. In terms of sectors, sectors such as liquor, insurance, food, and securities registered the highest gains, while sectors such as precious metals, military, humanoid robots, and flying cars registered the highest declines. As of yesterday's close, the Shanghai Index was up 2.57%, the Shenzhen Index was up 2.44%, and the GEM Index was up 3.75%.

At today's brokerage morning meeting, CITIC Securities believes that the domestic demand market and autonomy and control of China's semiconductor industry is a clear direction of development; Guotai Junan proposed that domestic demand improvement expectations continue to heat up, and liquor flexibility is highlighted; Huatai Securities said that banking performance is expected to stabilize and seize structural opportunities.

CITIC Securities: The domestic demand market and autonomy and control of China's semiconductor industry are clear development directions

CITIC Securities anticipates that after coming to power, Trump will launch a new round of decoupling and breaking the chain, imposing tariffs on Chinese goods, restricting sales of key technology products to China, and posing an attitude of starting a new round of trade and technology wars. Under these circumstances, the domestic demand market and autonomy and control of the Chinese semiconductor industry are clear development directions.

CITIC Securities believes that the actual marginal impact of US sanctions in the field of advanced technology will gradually weaken, and will not change the direction of China's long-term high-end semiconductor industry, and will accelerate the self-reliance of China's industry. In the long run, mainland China is expected to cultivate an autonomous and controllable industrial chain system independent of the US. Meanwhile, supply chain companies in Japan, South Korea, Europe, and Taiwan may participate in the two supply chain systems of China and the US at the same time.

Looking at the half-year perspective, the focus is on the implementation of demand from advanced domestic storage and logic vendors to expand production, breakthroughs in advanced domestic packaging technology, and the impact of integrated circuit and innovation policies on sector confidence. Looking at the perspective of more than a year, the focus is on the localization of “stuck neck” links such as advanced manufacturing, advanced packaging, semiconductor equipment, and high-end chips. In addition, emphasis is placed on mergers and acquisitions in the semiconductor sector.

Guotai Junan: Domestic demand is improving, expectations continue to heat up, and the elasticity of liquor is highlighted

Guotai Junan said that the recent domestic fiscal policy direction has been positive. With the implementation of the results of major overseas events, market expectations for a recovery in domestic consumer demand and stabilization of the real estate industry chain continue to heat up, and the logic of improving consumer demand is prominent, while liquor, as a high-end consumer and typical procyclical industry, has remarkable demand recovery elasticity.

Although the liquor industry in the third quarter of 2024 was still in the performance adjustment stage due to the inventory cycle, the microtrading structure was further optimized after sector holdings fell back. The current valuation of the Shenwan Liquor Index is expected to support sector valuations, and the stock price inflection point may be ahead of the fundamental inflection point (similar to 2014, when sector stock prices bottomed out in the first quarter of 2014, and the performance growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2014 was positive).

Huatai Securities: Banking performance is expected to stabilize and seize structural opportunities

Huatai Securities said that the performance of listed banks is expected to stabilize in 2025, but interest spreads and credit costs may be the main disturbing variables. The steady growth policy continues to help banks invest steadily in credit; the central bank has made numerous statements to protect banks' profit margins, and the effect of improving debt-side costs is gradually showing, and the decline in interest spreads is expected to gradually narrow; as the capital market recovers, the middle income is expected to rise from a low base. As capital risk appetite picks up, banks' stock selection logic shifts from dividend hedging to flexible individual stocks with excellent performance and undervaluation. Steady and high dividends still have allocation value.