国泰君安研报表示，近期国内财政政策导向积极，伴随海外重大事件结果落地，The current valuation of the Shenwan Liquor Index is around 20% in history
Reports in the liquor sector have decelerated since Q2, and off-season wine companies have shifted their focus to maintaining the industry's price system, controlling prices and maintaining healthy channel circulation. Q3 and Q4 are expected to continue the trend of risk release on the financial reporting side. Fundamentals are being refined, and differentiation among brands has intensified.
In terms of price, the 24Q3 high-end liquor business was steady, and the differentiation between sub-high-end and regional liquors intensified.
According to the Guotai Junan Research Report, the direction of domestic fiscal policy has been positive recently. With the implementation of the results of major overseas events, the market's expectations for a recovery in domestic consumer demand and stabilization of the real estate industry chain continue to heat up, and the logic of improving consumer demand is prominent, while liquor, as a high-end consumer and a typical procyclical industry, has significant demand recovery elasticity.
Although the liquor industry was still in the performance adjustment stage in the third quarter of 2024 due to the inventory cycle, the microtrading structure was further optimized after sector holdings fell back. Currently, the Shenwan Liquor Index valuation is at around 20% in history. It is expected that subsequent strong recovery expectations will support sector valuations, and the stock price inflection point may be ahead of the fundamental inflection point.
CITIC Construction Investment pointed out that due to the weak boom in the industry since the beginning of the year and the decline in performance growth, liquor valuations continued to decline, even after the September rebound, the overall valuation level was still low. With the gradual increase in economic stimulus policies, the October PMI has returned to the expansion range, and economic expectations are expected to be boosted. Business and banquet demand is expected to recover after early adjustments. Currently, tobacco and alcohol terminals are already at a low level of inventory, and demand recovery will quickly be transmitted to liquor companies, and the value of leading liquor needs to be reassessed.
Liquor-related companies:
Zhenjiu Li Du (06979): In 2023, Zhenjiu Li Du achieved another excellent result in the context of industry adjustments, achieving revenue of 7.03 billion yuan, an increase of 20.10% year on year; adjusted net profit of 1.623 billion yuan, up 35.50% year on year; net interest rate and gross margin both increased, and cash flow improved dramatically. At the same time, the four major brands under Zhenjiu Lidu all achieved double-digit year-on-year growth. High-end results were remarkable. Revenue from related products increased by 33.2% year on year, reflecting the high quality of performance growth.
