Many investors define successful investing as beating the market average over the long term. But if you try your hand at stock picking, you risk returning less than the market. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term COFCO Joycome Foods Limited (HKG:1610) shareholders, since the share price is down 47% in the last three years, falling well short of the market decline of around 0.4%. On the other hand the share price has bounced 6.5% over the last week.

While the stock has risen 6.5% in the past week but long term shareholders are still in the red, let's see what the fundamentals can tell us.

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the three years that the share price fell, COFCO Joycome Foods' earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 31% each year. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 19% compound annual share price fall. So, despite the prior disappointment, shareholders must have some confidence the situation will improve, longer term.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

We know that COFCO Joycome Foods has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? This free report showing analyst revenue forecasts should help you figure out if the EPS growth can be sustained.

What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

Investors should note that there's a difference between COFCO Joycome Foods' total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. We note that COFCO Joycome Foods' TSR, at -44% is higher than its share price return of -47%. When you consider it hasn't been paying a dividend, this data suggests shareholders have benefitted from a spin-off, or had the opportunity to acquire attractively priced shares in a discounted capital raising.

A Different Perspective

COFCO Joycome Foods shareholders are down 7.9% for the year, but the market itself is up 22%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 5% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with COFCO Joycome Foods (including 2 which can't be ignored) .

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of undervalued small caps that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.