The Zhitong Finance App learned that Haitong Securities released a research report saying that the computer boom is expected to begin to gradually recover, the revenue growth rate of the 2024Q3 information service industry will be steady, and the profit side will improve. The distribution of revenue growth in Q3 in 2024 moved to the left, and profit was polarized in a single quarter. In terms of profitability, gross profit margin and net margin overall declined, but gross margin showed a steady trend, and R&D, sales, and management expenses all increased. Split by sector, data element revenue increased high, and Xinchuang's profits were impressive. Split by market capitalization, the performance of large market capitalization companies was steady in the first three quarters, and the profit growth rate of market capitalization companies improved in Q3.

Haitong Securities's main views are as follows:

Revenue growth was steady, and net profit improved in Q3.

① Total revenue of the Q1-Q3 computer industry in 2024 was 858.725 billion yuan, +5.72% year over year; net profit to mother was 16.722 billion yuan, -29.80% year over year; after deducting non-net profit of 9.734 billion yuan, -27.79% year over year. Total revenue of the 2024Q3 computer industry was 309.486 billion yuan, +3.11% year on year; net profit to mother was 7.817 billion yuan, -3% year over year; after deducting non-net profit of 5.204 billion yuan, -15.39% year over year.

② The distribution of revenue growth in Q3 in 2024 moved to the left, and profits were polarized in a single quarter. Looking at the distribution pattern, the 2024Q3 distribution moved to the left as a whole compared to the first three quarters of 2024, indicating that the computer sector's revenue growth rate is slowing down. The profit side is divided into two levels, whether returning to mother or withholding non-profit. Both extremely high growth rates and extremely low growth rates account for a large proportion.

③ Split by quarter, the overall revenue growth rate stabilized in the first three quarters and remained in the single-digit range. There was a slight decline in Q3, and the profit growth rate was close to correction.

④ In terms of profitability, gross profit margin and net interest rate are declining as a whole, but gross margin is stabilizing, and R&D, sales, and management expense ratios are all rising.

⑤ Contract debts+ accounts receivable continued to increase, and the growth rate stabilized. Net operating cash flow turned negative in 2024Q1-Q3, and goodwill showed a downward trend.

Split by sector, data element revenue increased high, and Xinchuang's profits were impressive.

① According to the 2024Q1-Q3 revenue growth ranking, the top five are data elements, autonomous driving, industrial software, AI, and cloud computing; according to the net profit ranking, the top five are Shinchuang, industrial software, energy IT, autonomous driving, and data elements; according to non-net profit deducted, the top five are Shincong, autonomous driving, industrial software, data elements, and network security in that order.

② Xinchuang's performance increased both, that is, both revenue and profit growth rates were positive. In terms of basic software, with the advancement of innovation in the industry and the discontinuation and catalysis of CentOS, companies in the industry have accelerated business expansion in important industries such as energy, government affairs, finance, and operators, and the revenue structure and customer structure have been further optimized. In terms of basic hardware, China has established a good policy environment and an industrial environment, and the integrated circuit industry has been upgraded to a certain extent in terms of both structure and scale. The product performance of leading companies in the industry continues to improve, R&D projects are progressing smoothly, and the R&D team continues to achieve breakthroughs in key technologies such as high-end processor design and verification.

③ AI, autonomous driving, data elements, industrial software, and energy IT performance rose and fell, showing breakthroughs in products and technology as a whole. However, downstream payment capacity, especially on the B-side, is weak, and the cost side is more rigid, and profit side growth is not obvious.

④ Fintech, cybersecurity, and medical IT both showed a decline in performance, mainly due to external environmental pressure and weak downstream payment capacity.

The main reason for the extremely low growth rate of net profit from medical IT is that the absolute value of the previous period was small.

Split by market capitalization, the performance of large market capitalization companies was steady in the first three quarters, and the profit growth rate of market capitalization companies improved in Q3.

① Compared with small to medium market capitalization companies, large market capitalization companies performed steadily in 2024Q1-Q3. In 2024, the growth rates of revenue, net profit to mother, and net profit after deducting non-net profit of companies with a market value above 310 billion were 10%, -18%, and -10%, respectively; the growth rates of revenue, net profit to mother, and net profit after deducting non-net profit of medium market capitalization companies with a market value of 5-10 billion were -2%, -165%, and -70%, respectively; the revenue, net profit to mother, and net profit growth rates of companies with a market value of less than 5 billion were -14%, -72%, and -31%, respectively.

② The profit growth rate of market-capitalized companies improved in 2024Q3. The revenue, net profit to mother, and non-net profit growth rates of companies with a market value of 2024Q310 billion or above were 11%, -2%, and -16%, respectively; the growth rates of revenue, net profit to mother, and non-net profit of medium market capitalization companies with a market value of 5-10 billion were -12%, 62%, and 234%, respectively; the revenue, net profit to mother, and non-net profit growth rates of companies with a market value of less than 5 billion were -23%, -39%, and -6%, respectively.

Investment advice:

Financial IT: Hang Seng Electronics (600570.SH), Xindu (000997.SZ), Xindu (300130.SZ);

Fanshengchuang: Haiguang Information (688041.SH), Jing Jiawei (300474.SZ), Cambrian-U (688256.SH), Dameng Data (688692.SH), China Software (), Nastar (002180.SZ), Softcom (301236.SZ); 600536.SH

Data elements: Yunsai Zhilian (600602.SH), Boss Software (300525.SZ), Shanghai Steel Union (300226.SZ), Xindian Software (688232.SH);

Intelligent manufacturing: central control technology (688777.SH), Zhongwang software (688083.SH);

Che Lu Yun: Wanji Technology (300552.SZ), Jinyi Technology (002869.SZ), Tongbao (301339.SZ);

Low Altitude Economy: Rice Information (688631.SH);

AI applications: Jinshan Office (688111.SH), Hikvision (002415.SZ).

Risk warning: Performance sustainability falls short of expectations; market fluctuations are high; economic recovery falls short of expectations.