The Harbin Asian Winter Games will soon be held in February 2025, and the top snow and ice events are expected to increase public attention and enthusiasm for participation in snow and ice.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Open Source Securities released a research report saying that the number of hotel reservations in Harbin increased by 50% year-on-year in November, and led to a 140%/52%/45% year-on-year increase in orders in surrounding cities such as Daxinganling, Yichun, and Qiqihar, and the reservation trend is improving. The number of countries participating in the 2025 Asian Winter Games and the number of athletes reached a record high. Harbin is actively improving local passenger flow capacity (expanding the area of the Ice and Snow World Park by another 20%) and service level (organizing transportation and training for overseas visitors in lodging institutions). Referring to the Hangzhou Asian Games, the traffic concentration effect of high-standard events is expected to further raise the passenger flow ceiling during the snow and ice season.
The main views of Open Source Securities are as follows:
Snow and ice sports: a “booster” for the development of multiple industries, policies actively explore domestic demand in the off-season
Incident: Following the adoption of measures to boost the ice and snow economy at the executive meeting of the State Council on October 25, various departments jointly issued “Certain Opinions on Stimulating the Vitality of the Ice and Snow Economy through the High-Quality Development of Snow and Ice Sports” on November 6.
Interpretation: (1) Core gripper: Implement the “South Exhibition and Westward Expansion” strategy for snow and ice sports, expand the mass base and service supply, and drive the upgrading and development of the entire ice and snow equipment, events, and tourism industry chain. (2) Construction goals: By 2027, China's snow and ice sports facilities and service levels will improve significantly, the total scale of the snow and ice economy will expand to 1.2 trillion yuan, and the CAGR will reach 7.8% in 2023-2027. (2) Implementation path: Propose eight favorable measures to solve industrial development blockages by focusing on key measures such as snow and ice competition supply, project land use guarantee, university industry and education integration, and corporate credit support.
At this point, the “Opinion” is the first top-level document for the ice and snow industry of the Winter Olympics. It is expected to guide China's ice and snow “cold resources” to accelerate the transformation of “thermal power” into economic development. It has a prominent role in tapping winter consumption potential, promoting employment, and expanding domestic demand.
Reservations for the new snow and ice season continue to flourish, and the catalyst for top snow and ice events is expected to continue to inspire attention
From the perspective of supply and demand, China's existing ice and snow economy enterprises are 0.0125 million, up 16% from the beginning of the year. By the end of 2023, the number of snow and ice field facilities reached 2,837, a threefold increase over 2015, and it already has an initial industrial foundation; after the Winter Olympics, the participation rate of national residents in snow and ice sports reached 22.13%, and there is still plenty of room for snow and ice sports to penetrate. During the 2023-2024 snow season, the passenger flow/revenue received in Harbin increased by 300%/500% year-on-year respectively. The characteristics of the ice and snow economy are strong and the multiplier effect is outstanding. Using this as a benchmark, the domestic city-level ice and snow cultural tourism industry model of “professional sports+mass entertainment” and “going north to south+sharing with guests” has gradually taken shape.
The Harbin Asian Winter Games will soon be held in February 2025. The top snow and ice events are expected to increase public attention and enthusiasm for participation. Combined with the current improved supply of snow and ice tourism, the dominant mental consumption, and high-frequency social media publicity background, the China Travel Association expects the 2024-2025 new snow season to welcome a new peak in snow and ice tours, and the number of leisure travelers nationwide is expected to exceed 0.5 billion per cent. According to data from Where to Go, the number of reservations for snow-related scenic spots across the country has increased by more than 30% year-on-year since November, and the boom continues to be high during the reservation window for the new snow season.
Investment advice: Save energy for a new round of snow and ice season and seize the potential of snow and ice tourism in Northeast China/ice and snow industry
According to data from Where to Go, the number of hotel reservations in Harbin increased by 50% year-on-year in November, and led to a 140%/52%/45% year-on-year increase in orders in surrounding cities such as Daxinganling, Yichun, and Qiqihar, and the reservation trend is improving. The number of countries participating in the 2025 Asian Winter Games and the number of athletes reached a record high. Harbin is actively improving local passenger flow capacity (expanding the area of the Ice and Snow World Park by another 20%) and service level (organizing transportation and training for overseas visitors in lodging institutions). Referring to the Hangzhou Asian Games, the traffic concentration effect of high-standard events is expected to further raise the passenger flow ceiling during the snow and ice season. The three northeastern provinces have both resource endowments, industrial base, and policy empowerment. Combined with the current visa-free policy optimization progress, they are optimistic that cultural tourism traffic from Harbin will radiate into the provinces and cities surrounding Northeast China, driving the release of peak season performance for snow and ice tourism attractions and transportation service providers.
Beneficiaries: Changbai Mountain (603099.SH), Dalian Shengya (600593.SH), Longjiang Transportation (601188.SH). Increased supply has led to increased pressure on destination diversion. OTA platforms have outstanding traffic advantages and relatively strong certainty. They are expected to benefit from a boost in the popularity of snow and ice tours across the country. Benefiting targets: Ctrip Group-S (09961), Tongcheng Travel (00780), and Western Tourism (300859.SZ).
Risk warning: extreme weather, macroeconomics falling short of expectations, scenic spot project implementation falling short of expectations, etc.
