The investors in uniQure N.V.'s (NASDAQ:QURE) will be rubbing their hands together with glee today, after the share price leapt 30% to US$7.43 in the week following its quarterly results. Statutory losses were a bit smaller than expected, at just US$0.93 per share, even though revenues of US$2.3m missed analyst expectations by a shocking 67%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from uniQure's twelve analysts is for revenues of US$43.8m in 2025. This reflects a substantial 53% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 43% to US$2.81. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$64.3m and losses of US$3.01 per share in 2025. We can see there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a meaningful downgrade to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time reducing their loss estimates.

There was no major change to the US$18.96average price target, suggesting that the adjustments to revenue and earnings are not expected to have a long-term impact on the business. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on uniQure, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$28.17 and the most bearish at US$6.92 per share. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the uniQure's past performance and to peers in the same industry. For example, we noticed that uniQure's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 41% growth to the end of 2025 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 2.5% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 21% per year. Not only are uniQure's revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. Still, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at US$18.96, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on uniQure. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for uniQure going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for uniQure you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.