Tus-Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000590) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 37% gain in the last month alone. The bad news is that even after the stocks recovery in the last 30 days, shareholders are still underwater by about 9.1% over the last year.
After such a large jump in price, you could be forgiven for thinking Tus-Pharmaceutical Group is a stock not worth researching with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 5.8x, considering almost half the companies in China's Pharmaceuticals industry have P/S ratios below 3.8x. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.
How Tus-Pharmaceutical Group Has Been Performing
For example, consider that Tus-Pharmaceutical Group's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.
Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Tus-Pharmaceutical Group will help you shine a light on its historical performance.What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?
In order to justify its P/S ratio, Tus-Pharmaceutical Group would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the industry.
Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 11%. Regardless, revenue has managed to lift by a handy 10.0% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the earlier period of growth. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would be roughly satisfied with the medium-term rates of revenue growth.
Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 216% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker, based on recent medium-term annualised revenue results.
With this in mind, we find it worrying that Tus-Pharmaceutical Group's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.
The Bottom Line On Tus-Pharmaceutical Group's P/S
Tus-Pharmaceutical Group shares have taken a big step in a northerly direction, but its P/S is elevated as a result. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
Our examination of Tus-Pharmaceutical Group revealed its poor three-year revenue trends aren't detracting from the P/S as much as we though, given they look worse than current industry expectations. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless there is a significant improvement in the company's medium-term performance, it will be difficult to prevent the P/S ratio from declining to a more reasonable level.
You always need to take note of risks, for example - Tus-Pharmaceutical Group has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.