Despite an already strong run, Cnlight Co.,Ltd (SZSE:002076) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 30% in the last thirty days. But the gains over the last month weren't enough to make shareholders whole, as the share price is still down 3.7% in the last twelve months.
Since its price has surged higher, when almost half of the companies in China's Electrical industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 2.4x, you may consider CnlightLtd as a stock not worth researching with its 15x P/S ratio. However, the P/S might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
How CnlightLtd Has Been Performing
The recent revenue growth at CnlightLtd would have to be considered satisfactory if not spectacular. It might be that many expect the reasonable revenue performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors' willingness to pay up for the stock. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.
We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on CnlightLtd's earnings, revenue and cash flow.What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as steep as CnlightLtd's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the industry decidedly.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 3.6% gain to the company's revenues. Still, lamentably revenue has fallen 25% in aggregate from three years ago, which is disappointing. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.
Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 26% shows it's an unpleasant look.
With this information, we find it concerning that CnlightLtd is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.
What Does CnlightLtd's P/S Mean For Investors?
The strong share price surge has lead to CnlightLtd's P/S soaring as well. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.
We've established that CnlightLtd currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. With a revenue decline on investors' minds, the likelihood of a souring sentiment is quite high which could send the P/S back in line with what we'd expect. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.
Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for CnlightLtd that you should be aware of.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on CnlightLtd, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.