Results: Autohome Inc. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates
Results: Autohome Inc. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates
Autohome Inc. (NYSE:ATHM) came out with its quarterly results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of CN¥1.8b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Autohome surprised by delivering a statutory profit of CN¥3.45 per share, a notable 10% above expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
汽车之家(临时代码)上周公布了其季度业绩,我们想要了解业务表现如何以及行业预测师们对该公司报告后的看法。总体来看,这似乎是一个可靠的结果 - 尽管人民币18亿的营业收入与分析师的预测相符,但汽车之家通过每股收益达到了人民币3.45元,比预期高出10%。分析师通常会在每次财报后更新他们的预测,我们可以从他们的估计中判断他们对公司的看法是否已经改变,或者是否有任何需要注意的新问题。因此,我们收集了最新的财报后每股收益的共识估计,看看明年可能会发生什么。
Following last week's earnings report, Autohome's 15 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be CN¥7.18b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be CN¥14.31, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥7.23b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥14.34 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
根据上周的财报,汽车之家的15位分析师预测2025年的营收为人民币71.8亿,大致与过去12个月持平。每股预计为人民币14.31,与过去12个月大致持平。然而,在最新财报之前,分析师预期2025年的营收为人民币72.3亿,每股收益(EPS)为14.34元。共识分析师似乎没有在这些结果中看到任何改变他们对业务的看法的因素,因为他们的估计没有发生重大变化。
The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$30.14, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Autohome analyst has a price target of US$34.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$24.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Autohome shareholders.
分析师重申了他们30.14美元的价格目标,表明业务表现良好,符合预期。然而,只关注单一价格目标可能是不明智的,因为共识目标实际上是分析师价格目标的平均值。因此,一些投资者喜欢查看预测范围,以查看对公司估值是否存在不同意见。最乐观的汽车之家分析师将每股价格目标定为34.00美元,而最悲观的则为24.00美元。分析师对该业务的看法确实存在差异,但在我们看来,估计范围并不足以暗示汽车之家股东可能面临极端结果。
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. From these estimates it looks as though the analysts expect the years of declining revenue to come to an end, given the flat forecast out to 2025. That would be a definite improvement, given that the past five years have seen revenue shrink 4.7% annually. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 11% per year. So it's pretty clear that, although revenues are improving, Autohome is still expected to grow slower than the industry.
从更大的角度来看,我们可以通过将这些预测与过去的业绩和行业增长预测进行比较来理解这些预测。根据这些预测,分析师们预计营业收入下降的年份将结束,鉴于预测平稳一直延续至2025年。这将是明显的改善,因为过去五年营业收入每年下降4.7%。相比之下,我们的数据显示,预计其他类似行业的公司(受到分析师关注)将实现每年11%的营业收入增长。因此很明显,尽管营业收入正在改善,但预计汽车之家仍然预计增速低于行业。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析师增加了它对下一年每股亏损的估计。令人欣慰的是,营收预测未发生重大变化,业务仍有望比整个行业增长更快。共识价格目标稳定在28.50美元,最新估计不足以对价格目标产生影响。
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Autohome's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
最重要的是,并没有什么重大变化的情绪,分析师再次确认业务绩效与他们以前的每股收益预期相符。幸运的是,分析师们也再次确认了他们的营业收入预期,表明它正符合预期。尽管我们的数据显示汽车之家的营业收入预计表现将不及更广泛的行业。共识价值目标并未实质性变化,表明业务的内在价值在最新的预测中并没有发生重大变化。
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Autohome analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
话虽如此,公司收益的长期轨迹比明年更重要。我们有来自多位汽车之家分析师的预测,延伸至2026年,您可以在我们的平台上免费查看。
Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Autohome that we have uncovered.
在您迈出下一步之前,您应该了解我们所发现的汽车之家的一个警示信号。
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