As you might know, Puma Biotechnology, Inc. (NASDAQ:PBYI) just kicked off its latest third-quarter results with some very strong numbers. It was a solid earnings report, with revenues and statutory earnings per share (EPS) both coming in strong. Revenues were 14% higher than the analysts had forecast, at US$81m, while EPS were US$0.41 beating analyst models by 23%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the two analysts covering Puma Biotechnology, is for revenues of US$221.4m in 2025. This implies a not inconsiderable 9.1% reduction in Puma Biotechnology's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to dive 50% to US$0.24 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$218.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.20 in 2025. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the massive increase in earnings per share expectations following these results.
The consensus price target fell 7.1% to US$4.33, suggesting the increase in earnings forecasts was not enough to offset other the analysts concerns.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. Over the past five years, revenues have declined around 2.7% annually. Worse, forecasts are essentially predicting the decline to accelerate, with the estimate for an annualised 7.4% decline in revenue until the end of 2025. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 21% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Puma Biotechnology to suffer worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Puma Biotechnology following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Puma Biotechnology's future valuation.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Puma Biotechnology. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have analyst estimates for Puma Biotechnology going out as far as 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Puma Biotechnology (of which 1 is potentially serious!) you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
