It's shaping up to be a tough period for Forge Global Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:FRGE), which a week ago released some disappointing quarterly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. It looks like a pretty negative result overall with revenues of US$19m coming in 15% short of analyst estimates. Statutory losses were US$0.10 per share, 14% larger than what the analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

After the latest results, the six analysts covering Forge Global Holdings are now predicting revenues of US$109.6m in 2025. If met, this would reflect a major 37% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 47% to US$0.22. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$124.7m and losses of US$0.20 per share in 2025. There's been a definite change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a notable cut to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.

The average price target fell 5.2% to US$3.68, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for Forge Global Holdings' valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Forge Global Holdings analyst has a price target of US$7.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$2.00. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Forge Global Holdings' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 29% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 2.1% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 5.7% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Forge Global Holdings is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. They also downgraded Forge Global Holdings' revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Forge Global Holdings' future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Forge Global Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with Forge Global Holdings , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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