It's shaping up to be a tough period for Full House Resorts, Inc. (NASDAQ:FLL), which a week ago released some disappointing quarterly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of US$76m missing analyst predictions by 4.3%. Worse, the business reported a statutory loss of US$0.24 per share, much larger than the analysts had forecast prior to the result. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Following the latest results, Full House Resorts' five analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$333.6m in 2025. This would be a meaningful 20% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 67% to US$0.38. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$341.1m and US$0.14 per share in losses. While next year's revenue estimates dropped there was also a very substantial increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.
The average price target fell 9.6% to US$6.15, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for Full House Resorts' valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Full House Resorts analyst has a price target of US$8.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$4.75. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 15% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 13% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 9.7% annually. So although Full House Resorts is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Full House Resorts' future valuation.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Full House Resorts going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Before you take the next step you should know about the 4 warning signs for Full House Resorts that we have uncovered.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
