Last week, you might have seen that Tigo Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:TYGO) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.7% to US$1.08 in the past week. Revenues of US$14m beat expectations by a respectable 2.5%, although statutory losses per share increased. Tigo Energy lost US$0.22, which was 26% more than what the analysts had included in their models. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

After the latest results, the four analysts covering Tigo Energy are now predicting revenues of US$98.0m in 2025. If met, this would reflect a sizeable 113% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 33% to US$0.55. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$104.5m and US$0.52 per share in losses. Overall it looks as though the analysts are negative in this update. Although revenue forecasts held steady, the consensus also made a pronounced increase to to its losses per share forecasts.

The consensus price target fell 7.2% to US$3.67, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Tigo Energy at US$4.50 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$3.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Tigo Energy shareholders.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that Tigo Energy's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 83% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 7.0% p.a. over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.6% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Tigo Energy to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. They also downgraded Tigo Energy's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Tigo Energy's future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Tigo Energy analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 5 warning signs for Tigo Energy that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.