The Zhitong Finance App learned that China Post Securities released a research report saying that the price of gold began to decline after Trump basically confirmed his victory in the US presidential election, mainly affected by several short-term factors. Among them, the market is concerned that US tax cuts and high tariff policies will cause investment to flow back to the US. At the same time, US expectations of import suppression will strengthen the US dollar, and gold and silver are weakening. The price of alumina rose to 5,470 yuan/ton last week. It is still difficult to ease spot pressure due to a phased mismatch between supply and demand. It is expected that the whole of November will be accompanied by demand from the Northwest Aluminum Factory to replenish inventory, and prices will still have room to rise. However, as Guinea's bauxite exports begin to be marginally relaxed in late November, and new domestic production projects are gradually being shipped, alumina prices are expected to peak in early December.

The main views of China Post Securities are as follows:

Precious Metals: Short and Long Term

The price of gold began to decline after Trump basically confirmed his victory in the US presidential election. It was mainly affected by four short-term factors: 1. The Trump deal was completed in about a month, and the bulls began to stop making profits. 2. The US dollar index is strong. The market is worried that US tax cuts and high tariff policies will cause investment to flow back to the US. At the same time, US expectations of import suppression have strengthened the US dollar, and gold and silver are weakening. 3. Expectations for the end of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict have increased, and the safe-haven properties of gold have weakened. 4. Inflation is expected to strengthen, and the pace of interest rate cuts is slowing down (2-year US Treasury interest rates continue to rise). Although gold and silver showed a certain rebound after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected, in the long run, the increase in the US deficit rate, geopolitical disturbances, and the nearshoring of the US supply chain caused the central bank's gold purchase logic to not change. The pace of interest rate cuts may accelerate as the US employment situation weakens, and the gold market is expected to continue to maintain in Q4 2024.

Aluminum: Alumina continues to reach new highs, suppressing profits from electrolytic aluminum

The price of alumina rose to 5,470 yuan/ton last week. It is still difficult to ease spot pressure due to a phased mismatch between supply and demand. It is expected that the whole of November will be accompanied by demand from the Northwest Aluminum Factory to replenish inventory, and prices will still have room to rise. However, as Guinea's bauxite exports begin to be marginally relaxed in late November, and new domestic production projects are gradually being shipped, alumina prices are expected to peak in early December. LME aluminum is one of the few commodities that have risen. Although there was a certain retracement on the same day due to Trump's rise in power to strengthen the dollar, aluminum prices remained strong due to the cost support of a rapid rise in alumina prices. Overall, aluminum is the non-ferrous variety with the strongest procyclical properties. It is expected to benefit during the debt phase, and at the same time, after alumina prices peak and fall back, they are optimistic about the recovery of electrolytic aluminum profits.

Copper: Macroscopic pressure maintains fluctuation

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25BP last week. Overall, Trump is in line with expectations that Trump will become the new US president. His plan to impose high tariffs on China and reduce America's green transformation tendencies will affect future copper price expectations. On the supply side, the full commissioning of Chile's Mantoverde copper mine is expected to increase the production and import volume of domestic copper concentrate. As the import window opens, domestic copper scrap production and imports are expected to increase. The arrival of the off-season for traditional consumption on the demand side weakens domestic downstream demand expectations, and copper prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term.

Lithium: A peak season rebound is likely but limited

Lithium carbonate remained stable at 0.0669 million yuan last week. It is currently the peak demand season, and supply and demand in the lithium carbonate market have improved. In terms of demand, the current performance is still strong. Production schedules remained relatively good in November due to export grabbing and other factors, which supported spot prices, but it may increase expectations of weakening future off-season demand and suppress long-term demand. In terms of weekly production on the supply side, domestic lithium carbonate production has remained stable, so strong demand has led to the continuous elimination of domestic lithium carbonate factory inventories. There is limited room for lithium carbonate prices to fall in the short term, but there is also limited room for upward growth in the long run.

Antimony: Short-term supply and demand are weak, and marginal improvements are expected

Domestic antimony prices declined slightly last week, and overall remained weak and consolidated. On the supply side, overall production of antimony ingots in China in October (containing antimony ingots, crude antimony conversion, cathode antimony, etc.) fell slightly by 8.1% month-on-month compared with statistics from September last month. Mainly due to lack of overall market confidence, many manufacturers are also preparing to cut production and stop production. Demand-side exports have not recovered in the short term, and domestic supply and demand are weak. In October, China's primary sodium pyroantimonate production rose 11.78% month-on-month, mainly due to one manufacturer's resumption of production, but the manufacturer reportedly stopped production again in November. Overall, although domestic supply and demand are weak in the short term, antimony prices may resume rising at the end of the year as exports gradually recover and pre-holiday demand. Furthermore, trade policies after Trump came to power may have an impact.

Investment advice

It is recommended to focus on CICC Gold (600489.SH), Zijin Mining (601899.SH), Xingye Silver Tin (000426.SZ), Tin Co., Ltd. (000960.SZ), Lizhong Group (300428.SZ), CGN Mining (01164), etc.

Risk warning

The macroeconomy fluctuated greatly, demand fell short of expectations, supply releases exceeded expectations, and the company's project progress fell short of expectations.