According to the zhixun Finance APP, Dongya Lianfeng Investments stated that if Trump is elected President of the United States, his advocated policies such as increasing tariffs and reducing immigration may trigger inflation, impact economic growth, and lead to tense global trade relations. During the campaign, Trump proposed imposing 10%-20% tariffs on all imported commodities, with tariffs on some Chinese goods possibly as high as 60%. He also plans to implement stricter immigration rules, including restrictions on work visas and student visas. The uncertainty of increased tariffs, reduced immigration, and investment planning may all put pressure on the economy.

However, the actual implementation of Trump's plans depends on whether the House of Representatives falls into Republican hands. If the House of Representatives also falls into Republican hands, Trump will be more able to govern according to his own wishes, which will have a significant impact on fiscal deficits and budget. Without Democratic obstruction, Trump could push forward a plan to cut the highest corporate tax rate from 21% to 15-20%, a move that could significantly increase the deficit. In addition, additional stimulus measures may be needed to cushion the impact of policies such as increased tariffs, which could negatively impact economic growth. If the Democratic party ultimately gains control of the House of Representatives, the impact on fiscal deficits would be relatively minor.

Trump's policies are expected to drive up costs, disrupt supply chains, and create labor shortages, factors that may lead to a resurgence of inflation and potentially impact the pace of interest rate cuts. However, Trump leans towards loose monetary policies and believes it will compel Fed Chairman Powell to accelerate rate cuts, potentially adding inflationary pressure and complicating the trajectory of interest rates. Trump is more likely to intervene and influence Fed policies, once again challenging the central bank's independence.

As Trump's foreign policy becomes more unpredictable, global political and trade orders may become more chaotic or even need to be reordered, significantly increasing the risk of misjudgments amid major power competition.

If Trump fulfills his promises after taking office, extending the 'Trump tax cuts' implemented since 2017, easing market regulations, relaxing merger oversight rules and approval times, the team expects the stock market to perform well in the short term. However, in the long run, due to slowing economic growth, rising inflation and government bond yields, and escalating geopolitical tensions triggering risk aversion, there is a chance that the stock market could weaken in the long term.

Currently, East Asia Alliance Feng will view any short-term strength as a profit opportunity, and buy stocks of banks, traditional energy, and technology giants at low levels. These industries are expected to benefit from Trump's policies, including relaxing oversight by financial regulatory institutions, and providing tax incentives for oil and gas drilling.

As for fixed income, US Treasuries will determine the overall performance of Asian investment grade US dollar bonds, which are more susceptible to macro risk sentiment, especially the stock market. However, Trump's victory has a relatively mild impact on USD-denominated Chinese bonds because most issuers are not exporters and are not subject to Trump's tariff policies.

Trump's assumption of office is favorable for overall risk sentiment. If the Congress ends up being jointly controlled by both parties, the pressure facing US Treasury bond yields will be relatively less than a Congress entirely controlled by the Republican Party. The performance of high yield bonds is expected to outperform investment grade bonds.