日本政府的“经济观察家”调查显示，10月份衡量出租车司机和餐馆等服务业企业信心的指数为47.5，比前月下降0.3点，标志着连续第二个月下降。The data released on Monday shows that in Japan, the service industry confidence deteriorated in October, with more bankruptcy cases emerging. This has cast doubt on the views of the Bank of Japan that, under the impetus of strong domestic demand, Japan is expected to achieve a 2% inflation target.
These survey results are consistent with the concerns expressed by some members of the board of directors of the Bank of Japan at last month's policy meeting, that the intensifying labor shortage may curb economic growth rather than lead to wage increases.
"If labor supply constraints force companies to withdraw from low-profit businesses, reduce business scale, there is a risk of slowing down the growth of the Japanese economy," a member expressed in the meeting minutes released on Monday.
A survey by Japan's 'economic observers' indicates that the index measuring the confidence of service industry companies such as taxi drivers and restaurants in October was 47.5, a decrease of 0.3 points from the previous month, marking the second consecutive month of decline.
Business confidence in the economic outlook also fell by 1.4 points to 48.3, deteriorating for the second consecutive month, highlighting the fragility of Japan's economic recovery.
"Business confidence has been strong for quite a long time, but it seems to be deteriorating, which is concerning," said Nobuyasu Atago, Chief Economist at Rakuten Securities Economic Research Institute.
"This raises some questions, namely whether wage increases will boost consumer spending and the popularity of the service sector as the Bank of Japan predicts," he said.
Due to the proximity of surveyed companies to consumers, the 'economic observers' survey, as a leading indicator of household spending and the overall economy, is closely watched by the market.
As raw material costs rise and labor shortages squeeze profits, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises, the number of business bankruptcies continues to increase.
A survey released on Monday by the private think tank Teikoku Databank of Japan showed that the number of bankruptcies in October reached 925, the second highest this year after May's 1016, an increase of 17.1% compared to the same period last year.
The survey shows that a record 287 bankruptcies were caused by recruitment difficulties, indicating that some companies struggle to earn enough profit to pay higher wages.
The Bank of Japan exited its aggressive stimulus plan in March and raised its short-term policy rate to 0.25% in July.
Haruhiko Kuroda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, has stated that if strong domestic demand driven by rising wages keeps the inflation rate consistently near the 2% target, the bank will continue to raise interest rates.
