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荷兰国际:欧元受利差影响跌至四个半月低点 12月或降息50个基点

金吾资讯 ·  Nov 11, 2024 09:29

金吾财讯 | 荷兰国际集团指出,欧元兑美元汇率已触及四个半月来的最低点,由于利差因素对汇率的影响,欧元短期内恐难实现反弹。该集团分析师Chris Turner在一份报告中提到,欧元区与美国之间的短期利差依旧“极为显著”,这对美元构成了支撑。Turner认为,为了提振欧元区经济,欧洲央行可能需要采取进一步的降息措施,特别是在德国财政状况在联邦选举前不大可能显著改善的情况下。荷兰国际集团预测,欧洲央行将在12月份降息50个基点。

Turner还指出,除非出现头寸调整的情况,否则本周内欧元很难获得显著的上涨动力,即使有所上涨,其幅度也将十分有限。这表明,当前市场环境下,欧元面临较大的下行压力,短期内回升的可能性较低。

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