Authored by: Gyroscope Finance

The Trump effect continues, and Bitcoin hits a new high again.

Less than a week after the election was announced, even though the outcome has not been determined and the House of Representatives has not yet decided the victory, the quasi-President Trump has already had a comprehensive impact on the crypto field. In recent days, the crypto market has continued to rise, with BTC breaking through the $0.081 million mark after surpassing its previous high on election day, leaving a beautiful bullish candle on the candlestick chart.

It can be seen that Trump's appearance has greatly boosted the sentiment of the crypto market, which naturally involves the promises made by politicians. However, from the data perspective, looking back at the tenures of the presidents, the fulfillment rate does not seem optimistic.

It remains unclear whether crypto regulation will follow the statements of the president, but what can be confirmed is that the crypto industry, which has spent $0.24 billion, has officially moved from the backstage to the center stage of the political arena.

After the U.S. election, apart from the local fossil energy industry, the most prominent sector is the crypto industry.

With the Trump effect and the subsequent rate cut impact, the crypto market has shown astonishing growth, led by Bitcoin, which has surged from below $0.067 million to above $0.081 million within a week. In the early hours today, it reached a peak of $0.0815 million, with a 7-day increase of 17.79%. Major coins rose across the board, including the long-dormant Ethereum reaching $3200, SOL market cap briefly exceeding $100 billion. MEME has also made gains, with DOGE representing political MEMEs rising by over 33% to $0.292 in just 24 hours, reaching a market cap of $42.3 billion, even surpassing the stablecoin USDC to become the sixth largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.

Such intense volatility naturally leads to liquidation. According to Coinglass data, as of 14:54, the number of liquidations in the crypto market in the past 24 hours reached 216,612, with a total liquidation amount of $0.65 billion. Both long and short positions were liquidated, with longs liquidated at $0.365 billion and shorts at $0.285 billion.

Overall, despite increased volatility, the crypto market is clearly developing positively. A typical example is Wall Street institutions continuing to bet on bitcoin. Starting from November 6th, significant net inflows into bitcoin ETFs were observed. On November 7th, a single-day inflow reached as high as $1.359 billion, setting a new historical high. Blackrock's IBIT currently has a total asset management amount of $17.243 billion, with asset management scale reaching $17.443 billion, surpassing the second largest gold fund, IAU, in the U.S. stock market, once again confirming the title of bitcoin as "digital gold."

Before Trump's election, many market analysts predicted that the market would fall after the election due to selling facts. However, in actual effect, the bullish trend in the crypto market remains strong. This strong sustainability stems from a more relaxed macro environment. Although Wall Street predicts a slowdown in rate cuts next year, November still saw the expected rate cuts. It also comes from the industry's more favorable expectations towards Trump.

In reviewing Trump's previous verbal commitments, they mainly focus on two categories: regulatory and price aspects. During a speech at a bitcoin conference, Trump explicitly stated that the market cap of bitcoin would continue to increase since its inception, surpassing silver soon, and gold in the future. He emphasized that after being elected, the U.S. would consider bitcoin as a strategic asset reserve, not selling any bitcoins. He expressed his hope for bitcoin to be mined, minted, and manufactured in the U.S., ensuring that the U.S. becomes a world-leading center for crypto and bitcoin.

From a regulatory perspective, Trump has left more room for imagination. He mentioned that there will never be a central bank digital currency (CBDC). On the first day of his presidency, he plans to dismiss the well-known anti-crypto figure, current SEC chairman Gray Gensler, appoint a new chairman, and establish a Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Presidential Advisory Committee immediately to design transparent regulatory guidance for the entire industry, to be completed within 100 days. He stressed that rules will be established by people who love the industry, aiming for clear, simple, direct, and fair regulations to support industry growth rather than decline.

In addition to verbal commitments, Trump has set an example through actions. Not only is he the first president to accept cryptocurrency donations, but his family has also launched a defi project for operation. He proudly holds the title of the "First Bitcoin President" and frequently mentions it in his campaign speeches. Besides, apart from Trump, Vice President Pence and top aide Musk, under Trump's leadership, are strong supporters of crypto. Both SpaceX and Tesla hold substantial amounts of bitcoin.

What is even more encouraging is the significant victory of the Republican Party in this election. After securing the Senate, they are highly likely to win the House of Representatives, providing Trump with much stronger party support in terms of legislation, personnel appointments, and financial backing, unlike the constraints he faced in 2016.

It can be seen that the crypto industry seems to be ushering in a brand new regulatory environment. Industry insiders are also excited about this. Today, the policy director of a16z mentioned in an article that, based on the cooperation of the two parties in the previous congress, there will be a renewed effort to advocate for a clear regulatory framework to promote and support innovation and decentralization, bringing higher regulatory clarity. The industry should all feel capable of exploring all the breakthrough products and services supported by blockchain, especially in token issuance and community building. Many plans that were previously put on hold due to regulatory concerns may now finally be able to be restarted.

Looking at specific regulations, a research report from the blockchain infrastructure company Blockdaemon points out that two key bills are expected to be pushed forward. Firstly, the 21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act is expected to pass the Senate in 2025 and eventually be signed into law. Secondly, the SAB 121 repeal proposal, which was previously vetoed by Biden, may come into effect.

The chief legal officer of the crypto giant Coinbase, Paul Grewal, also frankly stated that the cryptocurrency industry has reached a turning point. The CEO also stated that next year US congressmen will be very crypto-friendly, saying it will be the most supportive Congress of cryptocurrencies in history.

These words are indeed not empty. While the selection of the president is crucial, in terms of actual legislative formulation and enforcement, the US Congress under the 'separation of powers' model is actually the most important part. Against this backdrop, the crypto industry has expanded its strategic vision, focusing not only on supporting the president but also on supporting more crypto-friendly members within the congress.

According to data from the Stand With Crypto website initiated by Coinbase, as of November 11th, in this election, a total of 268 candidates supporting cryptocurrencies won seats in the House of Representatives, while there were only 122 opponents of cryptocurrencies. At the same time, the new Senate also leans more towards supporting cryptocurrencies, with 19 supporters and 12 opponents.

And all of this is the result of substantial investments. The Fairshake cryptocurrency super PAC, funded by companies like Coinbase, Ripple, and Andreessen Horowitz, raised $0.245 billion, becoming the largest single-term super PAC in US history, surpassing traditional corporate donors. Since the Supreme Court's ruling on corporate political donations in 2010, it is now second only to the fossil fuel industry in terms of political spending.

The action committee not only has high fundraising, but also has insights into candidate selection. Following the principle of betting on both sides, it focuses on funding the Republican 'Defend American Jobs' and supporting the Democratic 'Protect Progress'. It is reported that 48 candidates supported by the crypto PAC almost all won, with a victory rate as high as 98%, setting a historic record. In crucial election races, crypto players spent lavishly, spending $40 million to successfully help Ohio car dealers and blockchain entrepreneurs, Republican Bernie Moreno, come from a 6% deficit to win against the well-known Senate Banking Committee Chairman, a strong critic of cryptocurrencies, Democratic Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, and further help Republicans secure victory in the Senate. The $40 million also became the most money invested by a group organization in campaigning in Ohio to date.

Apart from this election, Fairshake has even planned ahead for the midterm elections two years from now. As of now, it has accumulated over $78 million for the 2026 midterm elections, making every effort to eliminate possible midterm power shifts among the public.

The anticipation of weak regulations and the return to a smaller government are driving the growth of the industry, reigniting the resurgence of altcoins. Many industry professionals are once again looking forward to the mainstreaming process of altcoins.

However, in reality, except for relatively quick personnel changes, whenever it involves legislation and strategic direction, the involvement is quite extensive, and the personal power of the president cannot be overemphasized. In a federal system with a highly balanced separation of powers, the actual power of the president is far less than that of a centralized system country. In a politically divided United States with a high degree of ideological divisions, the greater the political division, the stronger the opposition party's constraints on the ruling party. Voters also take advantage of this, usually not allowing one party to dominate, even if temporarily successful. It will be balanced in the midterm elections, which is also the reason Fairshake has made early arrangements. During the election, in order to gain a wide range of votes, the president will tend to make big promises or offer more radical commitments, only to revert to reality after taking office.

Citing data from the Zhi Ben Society, the overall fulfillment rate of presidents' promises during their terms is generally low. During Biden's term, the overall fulfillment rate of promises is only 28%. The fulfillment rate of 19 medical issues is only 42%; 18 economic issues have only 2 fulfilled, 10 completely unfulfilled, with a fulfillment rate of only 11%; judicial fulfillment rate 20%; national security fulfillment rate 21%; administrative improvement fulfillment rate 33%. In the remaining six and below issues, immigration 50%, education 0%, climate and environment 75%, trade 33%.

During Trump's first term, the overall fulfillment rate of promises was 31%. Among them, all 5 trade issues were fulfilled, with a fulfillment rate of 100%; in addition, the fulfillment rate of other major issues was low, with 13 economic issues having 10 completely unfulfilled, with a fulfillment rate of only 7.6%; immigration fulfillment rate 27%; administrative improvement fulfillment rate 20%. In the remaining six and below issues, healthcare 10%, judiciary 50%, education 25%, national security 66%, climate and environment 33%.

Therefore, American presidents should be judged by their actions rather than their words, focusing on Trump's official speech and subsequent actions on January 20. On the other hand, the market does not need to be overly pessimistic. Compared to the extremely unorthodox Trump in 2016, the Republican Party's sweeping victory after this election and its strong internal prestige will significantly increase the rate of fulfilling its term. What is even more noteworthy is that the cryptocurrency market has already 'won' the Congress, coupled with the large number of voters, both legislators and presidents will not overlook this highly politicized sector.

From now on, the cryptocurrency industry may truly step into the forefront of history.