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Topscore Fashion Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:603608) 25% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

トップスコアファッション株式会社(SHSE:603608)の株価が25%上昇しても、まったく合致しない

Simply Wall St ·  11/12 06:49

Despite an already strong run, Topscore Fashion Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603608) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 25% in the last thirty days. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 27% over that time.

Although its price has surged higher, there still wouldn't be many who think Topscore Fashion's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.2x is worth a mention when the median P/S in China's Luxury industry is similar at about 1.6x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

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SHSE:603608 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry November 11th 2024

How Has Topscore Fashion Performed Recently?

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Topscore Fashion over the last year, which is not ideal at all. Perhaps investors believe the recent revenue performance is enough to keep in line with the industry, which is keeping the P/S from dropping off. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Topscore Fashion will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

How Is Topscore Fashion's Revenue Growth Trending?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like Topscore Fashion's is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 5.1%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 43% in aggregate. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 16% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Topscore Fashion's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Final Word

Topscore Fashion's stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We find it unexpected that Topscore Fashion trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider before investing and we've discovered 1 warning sign for Topscore Fashion that you should be aware of.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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