We Believe Inly Media's (SHSE:603598) Earnings Are A Poor Guide For Its Profitability
We Believe Inly Media's (SHSE:603598) Earnings Are A Poor Guide For Its Profitability
The latest earnings release from Inly Media Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603598 ) disappointed investors. We did some analysis and believe that they might be concerned about some weak underlying factors.
引力传媒股份有限公司(SHSE:603598)最新的盈利发布令投资者感到失望。我们进行了一些分析,认为他们可能担心一些弱势因素。
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A Closer Look At Inly Media's Earnings
深入了解引力传媒的盈利情况
In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.
在高级金融领域,衡量公司将报告的利润转化为自由现金流(FCF)的关键比率是应计比率(从现金流量中)。简而言之,此比率将FCF从净利润中扣除,然后将该数字除以该期间内公司的平均营运资产。这个比率告诉我们公司利润中有多少不由自由现金流支持。
Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.
因此,当公司的应计负债比率为负时,实际上是一件好事,但如果其应计负债比率为正,那就是一件坏事。虽然应计负债比率为正不是问题,表明某种程度的非现金利润,但高应计负债比率可以说是一件坏事,因为这表明纸面利润与现金流不匹配。因为一些学术研究表明,高应计负债比率往往导致利润较低或利润增长较少。
Inly Media has an accrual ratio of 0.22 for the year to September 2024. Therefore, we know that it's free cashflow was significantly lower than its statutory profit, which is hardly a good thing. Even though it reported a profit of CN¥32.3m, a look at free cash flow indicates it actually burnt through CN¥36m in the last year. Coming off the back of negative free cash flow last year, we imagine some shareholders might wonder if its cash burn of CN¥36m, this year, indicates high risk. However, that's not all there is to consider. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio. The good news for shareholders is that Inly Media's accrual ratio was much better last year, so this year's poor reading might simply be a case of a short term mismatch between profit and FCF. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.
引力传媒在2024年9月的年度计提率为0.22。因此,我们知道其自由现金流远低于其法定利润,这并不是一件好事。尽管报告了人民币3230万的利润,但从自由现金流来看,实际上在过去一年里烧掉了3600万人民币。在经历了去年负自由现金流的情况后,我们可以想象一些股东可能会担心,今年的现金烧掉3600万人民币,是否意味着高风险。然而,这并不是考虑的全部。我们可以看到,非常规项目影响了其法定利润,因此影响了计提率。对股东的好消息是,去年引力传媒的计提率要好得多,因此今年的糟糕数据可能只是利润与自由现金流之间短期不匹配的情况。如果情况的确如此,股东应寻找当年相对于利润改善的现金流。
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Inly Media.
注意:我们始终建议投资者检查资产负债表的实力。点击这里查看我们对引力传媒资产负债表的分析。
How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?
非常规项目如何影响利润?
Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that Inly Media's profit was boosted by unusual items worth CN¥18m in the last twelve months. While it's always nice to have higher profit, a large contribution from unusual items sometimes dampens our enthusiasm. We ran the numbers on most publicly listed companies worldwide, and it's very common for unusual items to be once-off in nature. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. Inly Media had a rather significant contribution from unusual items relative to its profit to September 2024. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit a poor guide to underlying earnings power.
考虑到应计比率,引力传媒在过去十二个月中由飞凡项目带来的1800万人民币利润增加并不让人过分惊讶。虽然利润更高总是好事,但来自飞凡项目的大额贡献有时会降低我们的热情。我们对全球大多数上市公司进行了统计,飞凡项目一次性出现在财报中是非常普遍的。而且,按会计术语的含义来看,这正是它的特点。与其截至2024年9月利润相比,引力传媒在利润中由飞凡项目贡献相当显著。其他一切相等的情况下,这可能导致法定利润成为对潜在收益能力不足以作为良好指导的一种情况。
Our Take On Inly Media's Profit Performance
我们对引力传媒的盈利表现的看法
Summing up, Inly Media received a nice boost to profit from unusual items, but could not match its paper profit with free cash flow. For the reasons mentioned above, we think that a perfunctory glance at Inly Media's statutory profits might make it look better than it really is on an underlying level. So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs that you should run your eye over to get a better picture of Inly Media.
总结一下,引力传媒从飞凡项目中获得了盈利的良好提升,但无法与自由现金流匹配其名义利润。基于上述原因,我们认为仅通过肤浅一瞥引力传媒的法定利润,可能使其在潜在层面上看起来比实际情况更好。因此,如果您想深入了解这只股票,重要的是考虑它所面临的任何风险。例如,我们发现了2个警示信号,您应该留意,以更全面了解引力传媒。
Our examination of Inly Media has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.
我们对引力传媒的检查集中在特定因素上,这些因素可能使其盈利看起来比实际情况要好。基于此,我们有些怀疑。但如果您能集中精力关注细枝末节,总会发现更多。例如,许多人将高股本回报视为有利的商业经济指标,而另一些人则喜欢‘追踪资金’,寻找内部人员正在买入的股票。尽管这可能需要您做些研究,但您可能会发现这个免费公司收藏品中有许多公司拥有高股本回报,或者这个持有内部人员大量股份的股票清单是有用的。
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