他认为，① J.P. Morgan predicts that the return on US stocks in 2024 will be higher than in 2016, due to the weak performance of economies outside the US and the strong performance of tech giants and financial stocks; ② Wall Street is optimistic about the trend of US stocks before the end of the year, as the general election removes uncertainty and enters a positive seasonal period.
Financial Services Association, November 12 (Editor Huang Junzhi) News of Trump's victory “took the lead” in the US stock market. Data from the JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPMorgan Chase & Co.) trading department shows that this is not over. The US stock carnival will continue until the end of the year, and the rise will be stronger than at the end of 2016 (Trump won the US election for the first time).
Andrew Tyler (Andrew Tyler), head of US market intelligence at J.P. Morgan Chase, wrote in a note to clients on Monday: “I expect the return in 2024 to be higher than in 2016. One of the major advantages of the S&P 500 is that economies other than the US showed weak performance, and growth in the UK, the European Union, Canada, and Mexico were all lower than at that time.”
He believes that the strong performance of the “Big Seven Tech” will continue to drive US stocks, and financial stocks will be the best performing sector in the S&P 500 index until the end of the year.
Overnight, the S&P 500 closed above 6,000 points for the first time, and last week also recorded its best weekly performance in the past 12 months. Investors believe Trump's presidency will benefit US companies.
Taylor reiterated his tactical bullish views and recommended adopting a “barbell strategy” by the end of 2024. He is cautious about the energy sector because of disappointing earnings reports for this quarter.
J.P. Morgan's trading department is no exception. Many Wall Street professionals are optimistic about the US stock market before the end of the year. Part of the reason is simple. The US election removed the barriers of uncertainty, and now US stocks are entering a seasonal positive period.
A Morgan Stanley strategist led by Mike Wilson said on Monday that the stock market rally is expected to continue after the general election that began last week, especially financial stocks, industrial stocks, and commodity cyclical stocks. John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management (Oppenheimer Asset Management), raised the S&P 500's year-end target to a Wall Street high of 6,200 points.
Evercore ISI analyst Julian Emanuel also said last week that the bull market in the US stock market has only just begun.
However, the above report did not predict the situation in 2025 because 2025 is more risky. Due to Trump's many policies, from outright expulsion of illegal immigrants to blocking trade through protectionist tariffs, they are thought to increase inflation, thereby causing the Federal Reserve to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts.
As US Treasury yields rise again, they may limit future gains in the US stock market, as the S&P 500 has risen 50% in the past two years and surpassed 6,000 points for the first time in history. The expected price-earnings ratio is 23 times, which is about 40% higher than the average since 2000.
Finally, it's worth noting that although J.P. Morgan's trading department shared its short-term bullish view, the bank's stock research strategists represented the company's overall view, and they were already warning that a yield close to 5% would be a barrier to risky assets next year.
