东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，受9月底美联储主席鲍威尔表示“降息将循序渐进”等因素影响，近期美债收益率大幅走高；与此同时，市场对欧洲央行降息预期持续升温，日本政府则表示“目前没有进一步加息的环境”。在这些因素综合作用下，10月以来美元对欧元、日元升值，带动美元指数显著上行，令人民币汇率承受一定程度的被动下跌压力。On November 12, the central price of RMB was 7.1927, down 141 points. The median price for the previous trading day was 7.1786.
Expert: The RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate in the fourth quarter
Wang Youxin, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, believes that the RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate in the fourth quarter, which means that the RMB exchange rate will not rise or fall unilaterally, but will fluctuate within a certain range. After all, the recently announced package of incremental policies will gradually come into effect, policy dividends will be released at an accelerated pace, and domestic economic fundamentals are expected to continue to improve, providing strong support for the RMB exchange rate. However, factors such as the slow pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will still have an impact on the foreign exchange market. Overall, there is a high probability that the RMB exchange rate will fluctuate in a range.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Dongfang Jincheng, believes that due to factors such as Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's statement that “interest rate cuts will be gradual” at the end of September, US bond yields have risen sharply recently; at the same time, market expectations for ECB interest rate cuts continue to heat up, and the Japanese government said “there is currently no environment for further interest rate hikes.” Under the combined effects of these factors, the US dollar appreciated against the euro and yen since October, driving the US dollar index to rise significantly, causing the RMB exchange rate to bear a certain degree of passive downward pressure.
The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 65.1%
CME “Federal Reserve Watch”: The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep current interest rates unchanged until December is 34.9%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 65.1%. The probability of keeping current interest rates unchanged until January next year is 23%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 54.8%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 22.3%.
