On November 11, the top 10 ETFs with net capital inflows were China Securities A500 ETF Jingshun, China Securities A500 ETF South, Penghua Fund Liquor ETF, Huabao Fund Securities ETF, Huabao Fund Securities ETF, ICBC Credit Suisse Fund Science and Technology Innovation ETF, Cathay Pacific Semiconductor Equipment ETF, E-Fangda Fund Pharmaceutical ETF, Cathay Pacific Securities ETF, and China Merchants A500 Index ETF, respectively, which received 1.403 billion yuan, 1.07 billion yuan, 0.644 billion yuan, 0.484 billion yuan, 0.484 billion yuan, respectively Net capital inflows of billion yuan, 0.449 billion yuan, 0.435 billion yuan, 0.386 billion yuan, 0.23 billion yuan, 0.226 billion yuan, and 0.214 billion yuan.

On November 11, the top 10 ETFs with net capital outflows were Science Innovation 50 ETF, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ETF, China Securities 1000 ETF, China Securities 500 ETF, Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 ETF, Science and Technology Innovation Chip ETF, China Securities 1000 ETF, Chip ETF, and Science Innovation 100 ETF Huaxia, which received -4.728 billion yuan, -4.38 billion yuan, -3.304 billion yuan, -2.773 billion yuan, and -2.065 respectively Net capital inflows of billion yuan, -1.669 billion yuan, -1.234 billion yuan, -0.8 billion yuan, -0.702 billion yuan, and -0.7 billion yuan.

Regarding the current market, Cinda Securities believes that this round of liquidity bull market may be slower than 2014-2015.

2014-2015 was a typical capital-driven bull market. The macroeconomy did not recover, and the ROE (TTM) of most industries accelerated downward. Instead, the level of the bull market generated in this environment was far greater than the bull market driven by the three profit rebounds in 2009-2010, 2016-2017, and 2019-2021. The core reason behind it is that residents' capital in the A-share investor structure has more influence than institutions. We believe that with the changes in the supply and demand structure of the stock market, especially the resurgence of residents' enthusiasm, the stock market is likely to have entered a bull market. However, it may be difficult to maintain the speed of this bull market as before, because the inflow of capital from residents was not as fast as in 2014-2015.

1. The last capital-driven bull market was in 2014-2015. The logical aspects of a profit-driven bull market are easier to explain, while most mature institutional investors disagree with capital-driven bull markets. 2014-2015 was a typical capital-driven bull market, and the initial market was quite divided. This is because the previous bull and bear markets from 2003 to 2012 were accompanied by macroeconomic fluctuations. Although the stock market will lead the economy and the profit (ROE) of listed companies at the top and bottom for about half a year, the general direction is the same. However, in 2014-2015, the macroeconomy did not recover, and the ROE (TTM) of most industries accelerated its decline. Instead, the level of the bull market generated in this environment was far greater than the bull market driven by three profit rebounds in 2009-2010, 2016-2017, and 2019-2021.

2. The impact of residents' funds on the Bull and Bear market far exceeds institutional funds. The core reason behind it is that residents' capital in the A-share investor structure has more influence than institutions. Although institutional capital such as public placement, private placement, insurance, and foreign capital has continued to grow in the past 10 years, the power of subscription and redemption behind public and private placement still comes from residents. Summarizing bank transfers, financing balance, and changes in public offering shares, etc., we can see that in the 2014-2015 and 2019-2021 bull markets, both reached more than 2 trillion dollars for 2 to 3 consecutive years. However, if we look at insurance and foreign investment, when taken together, the annual increase will not exceed trillion dollars; in most cases, the annual increase is only about 300-400 billion. Therefore, looking at 2-3 years, the impact of residents' capital on the Bull and Bear market far exceeds that of institutions. We believe that with the changes in the supply and demand structure of the stock market, especially the resurgence of residents' enthusiasm, the stock market is likely to have entered a bull market.

3. The rate of capital inflows to residents is still lower than the rate of 2014-2015. The evidence of the recent rapid inflow of residents' capital into the stock market mainly comes from a recovery in financing balances, account opening data, and ETFs. If you look at the financing balance of the last month, the performance is indeed much better than the index, but if you add September-October, there is not much difference between the recovery in the financing balance and the increase in the index. This is much slower than the leveraged inflow of residents' capital in 2014-2015. The number of accounts opened by individual investors rose significantly in September-October, and the number of accounts opened in a single month is almost close to the 2015 high. However, if you look at Baidu's stock account opening search index, you can see that starting in late October, the popularity of account opening declined markedly. What is different from the 2014-2015 bull market is that this time, residents have invested heavily in ETFs, and the size of ETFs is already comparable to the size of active products. However, judging from the growth rate, although ETFs are growing rapidly, they are not as fast as the scale of active equity products raised by public offering in 2020.