According to the data from the Ministry of Commerce, as of October 24th, there were 1.57 million applications for national automobile scrappage renewal subsidies, with 1.26 million applications for local automobile substitution renewal subsidies. The growth rate of local subsidy applications is significantly faster than the national scrap renewal application amount, which has a noticeable boosting effect on domestic demand.
The Smart Finance app learned that China Galaxy Securities released a research report stating that, according to Ministry of Commerce data, as of October 24th, there were 1.57 million applications for national automobile scrappage renewal subsidies, with 1.26 million applications for local automobile substitution renewal subsidies. The growth rate of local subsidy applications is significantly faster than the national scrap renewal application amount, which has a clear impact on boosting domestic demand. This reversal has overturned the five consecutive months of negative year-on-year growth in domestic passenger vehicle sales, driving the recovery of the domestic auto market.
China Galaxy Securities' main points are as follows:
The effect of local subsidy policies is significant, with a year-on-year increase of 10.7% in October passenger vehicle sales, reaching a historical high for the same period, second only to the end of last year.
In terms of passenger vehicles, sales reached 2.755 million units in October, up 10.7% year-on-year and 9.1% month-on-month, setting a historical record for the same period. Looking at historical single-month data, this figure is only surpassed by sales in December of last year. Among them, domestic passenger vehicle sales in China reached 2.289 million units, up 10.7% month-on-month and year-on-year. The local substitution subsidy policy, heavily promoted in September, gained momentum in October. According to Ministry of Commerce data, as of October 24th, there were 1.57 million applications for national automobile scrappage renewal subsidies, and 1.26 million applications for local automobile substitution renewal subsidies. The growth rate of local subsidy applications is significantly faster than the national scrap renewal application amount, which has a clear impact on boosting domestic demand. This has reversed the five consecutive months of negative year-on-year growth in domestic passenger vehicle sales, driving the recovery of the domestic auto market.
As for commercial vehicles, domestic sales in October totaled 0.222 million units, down 25.5% year-on-year but up 9.7% month-on-month. Exports reached 0.076 million units, a 13.6% year-on-year increase, despite a 6.6% decrease month-on-month. The domestic market sales have stabilized, and the trend of export growth continues. Looking at sales by vehicle type, truck sales reached 0.255 million units, down 20.9% year-on-year but up 5.3% month-on-month, while bus sales were at 0.043 million units, up 1.5% year-on-year and 3.3% month-on-month. Truck sales are more affected by domestic demand.
The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the domestic passenger vehicle market is stable, consistently above 50% for five consecutive months. New products are expected to continue driving the increase in penetration rate.
In terms of new energy, domestic new energy passenger vehicle sales in October were 1.248 million vehicles, up 58.1% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 54.5%, an increase of 16.3 percentage points year-on-year, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points month-on-month. The penetration rate has been above 50% for five consecutive months. In the peak consumption season of 'Golden September and Silver October', the order performance of leading new energy vehicle companies is impressive, expected to drive the continued heat of the new energy market, promote the continuous upward trend of penetration rate. For example, Xiaopeng P7+ exceeded 10,000 orders in 12 minutes after listing, and had 31,528 orders on the first day of listing; Zero Run had over 0.042 million orders in October; Deep Blue had 0.036 million orders for the entire series in October, and S05 exceeded 10,000 orders in 10 days after listing; Zhijie R7 accumulated over 0.03 million orders in 33 days since listing. Additionally, recent new models such as Geely Starship 7, AIONRT, and Avita 12 extended range version have been successively launched, enriching the market supply and accelerating the replacement of new energy for fuel products.
In terms of commercial vehicles, domestic new energy commercial vehicle sales in October were 0.054 million vehicles, up 26.6% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 24.4%, showing strong momentum. In terms of exports, passenger car exports in October were 0.465 million vehicles, up 10.7% year-on-year, with a 1.8% month-on-month increase, continuing a steady growth trend. New energy car exports in October were 0.128 million vehicles, up 16.0% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year.
Looking at different vehicle types, pure electric vehicle exports in October were 0.104 million vehicles, down 9.2% year-on-year, up 17.3% month-on-month. Plug-in hybrid vehicle exports were 0.024 million vehicles, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6 times and a month-on-month increase of 10.7%. Overseas market demand recovery has led to a resurgence in domestic new energy exports.
From the perspective of enterprises, among the top ten vehicle exporters, Chery's export volume reached 0.112 million vehicles in total, up 18.9% year-on-year, accounting for 20.7% of the total export volume, continuously increasing market share. Compared to the same period last year, Beiqi's export growth was the most significant, reaching 0.03 million vehicles, doubling year-on-year. From January to October, among the top ten vehicle exporters, BYD exported 0.332 million vehicles, up 79.6% year-on-year; Beiqi exported 0.218 million vehicles, up 63.2% year-on-year; Changan exported 0.467 million vehicles, up 60.5% year-on-year. The strong ones in the export market continue to strengthen, with an increase in the concentration of the leading companies.
Investment recommendations: For complete vehicles, BYD (01211), Ideal Automobile (02015) are recommended, benefiting symbols include Geely Auto (00175), Loncin Motor (603766.SH); For parts, intelligent recommendations are Huayu Automotive (600741.SH), Bethel (603596.SH), Desay SV Automotive (002920.SZ), Keboda Technology (603786.SH), Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp. (600699.SH), Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems (601799.SH); For new energy, recommendations are Xiamen Faratronic (600563.SH), Zhongrong Electric (301031.SZ), Hua Wei Technology (001380.SZ), Jiangsu Pacific Precision Forging (300258.SZ), Ningbo Tuopu Group (601689.SH), Ningbo Xusheng Group (603305.SH).
Risk warnings: Risks of domestic car sales falling below expectations; Risks of export growth facing overseas policy constraints; Risks of intensified industry competition; Risks of policy effects falling short of expectations.
