2024年8月和10月银河E5和星愿上市，分别定位A级SUV和A0级轿车市场，定价分别为10.98-14.58万元和6.98-9.88万元，拓宽品牌价格带。银河E5凭借产品力优势，上市首月实现销量12230辆。星愿从产品力来看同样具备爆款潜质，有望对标细分市场销冠。该行预计2024年底将推出星舰7，定位B级SUV混动市场，进一步补齐车型矩阵，推动品牌销量增长。银河预计2024/2025年销量有望达到29.6/76.0万辆，分别增长254.3%/156.9%。According to a research report released by Guolian Securities, Geely Auto (00175) was given a “buy” rating due to its obvious growth advantage and leading model product cycle advantage. Benefiting from a good new car cycle, Geely is expected to see both an increase in sales volume and share. The bank estimates that the company's total sales volume in 2024-2026 (including krypton and Lynk & Co) will be 2.143/2.782/3.28 million vehicles, with operating income of 239.03/325.52/395.69 billion yuan, net profit to mother of 16.41/12.74/16.47 billion yuan, corresponding EPS of 1.63/1.26/1.64 yuan/share, respectively, and a 3-year CAGR of 45.8%.
The main views of Guolian Securities are as follows:
Galaxy E5 and Starwish are listed to expand the Galaxy brand's market coverage
Galaxy E5 and Star Wish were launched in August and October 2024, targeting the A-class SUV and A0 class sedan markets respectively. The pricing was 0.1098-0.1458 million yuan and 0.0698-0.0988 million yuan, respectively, broadening the brand price range. The Galaxy E5 achieved sales of 12,230 units in the first month of its launch, thanks to its product strength advantages. In terms of product strength, Star Hope also has the potential to be a hit, and is expected to be the top seller in the market segment. The bank expects to launch the Starship 7 by the end of 2024, positioning the B-class SUV hybrid market, further complementing the model matrix and boosting the brand's sales growth. Galaxy expects sales volume to reach 0.296/0.76 million vehicles in 2024/2025, up 254.3%/156.9%, respectively.
Extreme Krypton 7X and Extreme Krypton MIX were launched one after another, and the model matrix developed at an accelerated pace
Since 2023, the pace of new car releases under the Extreme Krypton brand has been accelerated. The sales volume increased from 0.072 million units in 2022 to 0.119 million units in 2023, an increase of 65.0% over the previous year. Extreme Krypton 7X and Extreme Krypton MIX are expected to be released in 2024, which are positioned as B-class SUVs and B-class MPVs respectively. The price of the Extreme Krypton 7X is 0.2299-0.2699 million yuan, which has a competitive advantage over competitors in the same class such as Modely and BYD Tang. New cars in 2025 include hunting and C\ D class SUVs. The number is still high, and the energy form may expand to the hybrid market. Extreme Krypton's sales volume is expected to reach 0.217/0.445 million units in 2024/2025, up 82.8%/105.1%, respectively.
The transformation of Lynk & Co New Energy is on the right track, and pure electric models are expected to expand the market
In 2023, the Lynk & Co brand launched its first native energy architecture CMA-EVO platform, and the new energy transformation is officially on the right track. In 2023 and 2024, Linker 08 and Lynk & Co 07 were released based on the CMA-Evo platform, respectively, to help increase the sales volume of Lynk & Co. New Energy. From January to August 2024, Lynk & Co's sales volume was 0.096 million vehicles, up 449.6% year on year, accounting for 56.7%. The Linker Z10 was launched in September 2024, positioned as a C-class pure electric sedan, and is the first model for the Linker brand in the pure electric market; in October, the Linker Z20 debuted in Europe and positioned as an A-class pure electric SUV, which is expected to become a key model for Geely to open up the global market. Lynk & Co., Ltd. is expected to sell 0.167/0.287 million vehicles in 2024/2025, up 158.6%/72.2%, respectively.
