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The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (NYSE:GBX) Held Back By Insufficient Growth Even After Shares Climb 26%

Simply Wall St ·  Nov 12 18:30

The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (NYSE:GBX) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 26% gain in the last month alone. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 83%.

Although its price has surged higher, Greenbrier Companies may still be sending bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 12.8x, since almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios greater than 20x and even P/E's higher than 36x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

Recent times have been advantageous for Greenbrier Companies as its earnings have been rising faster than most other companies. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to degrade substantially, which has repressed the P/E. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.

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NYSE:GBX Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry November 12th 2024
If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Greenbrier Companies.

Does Growth Match The Low P/E?

Greenbrier Companies' P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver limited growth, and importantly, perform worse than the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 163% gain to the company's bottom line. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 415% overall rise in EPS, aided by its short-term performance. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably welcomed those medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Turning to the outlook, the next year should bring diminished returns, with earnings decreasing 3.4% as estimated by the dual analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the broader market is forecast to expand by 15%, which paints a poor picture.

In light of this, it's understandable that Greenbrier Companies' P/E would sit below the majority of other companies. Nonetheless, there's no guarantee the P/E has reached a floor yet with earnings going in reverse. There's potential for the P/E to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its profitability.

What We Can Learn From Greenbrier Companies' P/E?

Greenbrier Companies' stock might have been given a solid boost, but its P/E certainly hasn't reached any great heights. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

As we suspected, our examination of Greenbrier Companies' analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings is contributing to its low P/E. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.

Having said that, be aware Greenbrier Companies is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 1 of those makes us a bit uncomfortable.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Greenbrier Companies. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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