10月食品价格（占CPI的一半左右）同比上涨了10.87%，高于9月的9.24%。其中，蔬菜价格涨幅特别大，比去年同期猛涨了42.18%。剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格的核心通胀率在10月上涨了3.74%，比9月的3.56%略有上升。India's inflation rate soared to a 14-month high, and expectations for the central bank to cut interest rates cooled. Food inflation rose to 10.87% in October from 9.24% in September.
India's inflation rate reached a 14-month high in October, exceeding the upper limit of the target range set by the central bank, providing more reasons for the Bank of India to delay interest rate cuts.
On Tuesday, November 12, statistics from the Bureau of Statistics of India showed that the consumer price index (CPI) rose 6.21% year on year in October, exceeding the 5.9% forecast by economists. In contrast, the inflation rate in September was 5.49%.
Food prices in October (accounting for about half of the CPI) rose 10.87% year on year, up from 9.24% in September. Among them, vegetable prices rose particularly sharply, surging 42.18% over the same period last year. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core inflation rate rose by 3.74% in October, up slightly from 3.56% in September.
The Bank of India had anticipated that inflation would remain high in October due to statistical factors and fluctuations in food prices. Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das mentioned last week:
“There is a “significant upward risk” in inflation due to rising global commodity prices and the continuing impact of geopolitical conflicts. Therefore, even if the central bank currently adopts a neutral monetary policy stance, it will not consider cutting interest rates in the short term.”
He emphasized last month:
“The current interest rate cut is “very dangerous”. Relaxation of monetary policy will only be considered if inflation continues to fall to the target level of 4%.”
Upasna Bhardwaj, chief economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank, said:
“As food prices continue to rise, it is expected that even with the next data released, overall inflation will remain above 5% until seasonal factors come into play to push inflation back down.”
The Bank of India's next policy meeting will be held on December 6. Bloomberg Economics argues that:
“Another rise in consumer inflation in October is in line with the hawkish remarks of Bank of India Governor Das. It is expected that the Bank of India will maintain its current neutral monetary policy in December and will not cut interest rates immediately.”
HDFC Bank economist Sakshi Gupta said:
“The latest inflation data shows that it is almost impossible to cut interest rates at the December policy meeting. Considering that global uncertainty is rising, the policy meeting in February next year will not necessarily cut interest rates, nor will it be a “foregone conclusion.”
Furthermore, Trump's victory last week made global interest rate cut expectations more complicated, causing many economists to postpone interest rate cuts from December to next year.
