China Academy of Urban Planning and Design: Expectations for the real estate market and buyers' confidence have somewhat recovered, with a significant increase in the activity of the real estate market in October.

Zhitong Finance · Nov 12 18:54

Currently, there are preliminary signs of stabilization in volume and price in the core city market. If supportive policies continue to be introduced in the future to consolidate the effects of previous policies, core cities may achieve stabilization after a period of decline.

According to the Wise Finance APP, the China Index Research Institute stated that under a package of policies, the real estate market expectations and buyer confidence have partially recovered, with a notable increase in market activity in October. In the short term, considering the lag in online signing data, it is expected that the online signing transaction activity will continue into the first half of November. Currently, there are preliminary signs of stabilization in volume and price in the core city market. If supportive policies continue to be introduced in the future to consolidate the effects of previous policies, core cities may achieve stabilization after a period of decline.

In October, various central ministries and commissions continued to introduce policies to promote the real estate market's "stabilization after a period of decline," with the National Development and Reform Commission proposing "comprehensive policy measures to promote stability after a period of decline in the property market"; the Ministry of Finance proposed special bonds to support the recovery of idle land and stock commodity houses; the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and four other ministries introduced a policy "combination punch" to promote stability after a period of decline in the real estate market, proposing "four cancellations, four reductions, and two increases." At the same time, the central bank's interest rate cuts have taken effect, with the 1-year and 5-year LPR both reduced by 25 basis points. Supported by the "package" policy since the end of September, the volume of second-hand housing transactions in key cities has rebounded significantly in October, and prices have also shown signs of stabilization.

In October, the month-on-month decline in the prices of second-hand houses in the top ten cities narrowed.

Chart: Average listing price of second-hand residences in the top ten cities in October 2024 and year-on-year changes.

Chart: Average price and month-on-month changes in second-hand residences in the top ten cities from July 2020 to October 2024.

Data Source: China Index Data CREIS

Market Monitoring:

According to the real estate index system of China's one hundred cities, in October 2024, the average price of second-hand residences in one hundred cities fell by 0.60% month-on-month, a decrease of 0.10 percentage points from the previous month; a year-on-year decrease of 7.27%. In October, the average price of second-hand residences in the top ten cities fell by 0.33% month-on-month, narrowing the decline by 0.47 percentage points from the previous month; a year-on-year decrease of 7.51%.

Specifically, except for Hangzhou, where the month-on-month decline in second-hand house prices remained basically flat compared to the previous month, the remaining cities in the top ten cities narrowed. Shanghai and Shenzhen saw significant narrowing, both above 0.7 percentage points, while Beijing, Wuhan, and Chongqing narrowed between 0.5-0.7 percentage points, and Guangzhou and Tianjin narrowed between 0.2-0.3 percentage points.

Peking: The number of second-hand housing transactions reached a new high since last April, with a significant narrowing of the price decline month-on-month.

Chart: Trend of the number of second-hand residential transactions and the month-on-month price trend in Peking from July 2020 to October 2024.