Surging CPO Prices To Benefit Upstream Firms, Mixed CPO Outlook For 2025
Surging CPO Prices To Benefit Upstream Firms, Mixed CPO Outlook For 2025
Local upstream plantation firms are like to benefit from the rising Crude Palm Oil (CPO) prices, said CGS International based on bullish outlook of speakers at the Indonesia Palm Oil Conference 2024 who have tabled CPO price projection of RM4,500-5,000/tonne for the first half of 2025.
CGS International表示,根據2024年印度尼西亞棕櫚油會議發言人的看漲前景,當地上游種植園企業很可能會受益於原棕櫚油(CPO)價格的上漲,他們提出了2025年上半年每噸4500-5,000令吉的CPO價格預測。
Supporting factors cited were strong Indonesia biodiesel demand, slower palm oil production growth and tight supply in other vegetable oils and fats.
列舉的支持因素包括印度尼西亞生物柴油需求強勁、棕櫚油產量增長放緩以及其他植物油和脂肪供應緊張。
The upbeat projection for the first half of 2025 contrasts somewhat with the predicted price levels put forth by local market analysts and economists, who have projected the CPO prices in 2025 to be below RM4,000/tonne, from RM3,650/tonne1 to RM3,900/tonne2.
2025年上半年的樂觀預測與當地市場分析師和經濟學家提出的預測價格水平形成鮮明對比,他們預測2025年的CPO價格將低於每噸4,000令吉,從3650令吉/噸1令吉降至3,900令吉/噸2。
Analysts believe that upstream palm oil players which are likely to benefit from the rising CPO prices are Hap Seng Plantations Holdings Bhd, Ta Ann Holdings Bhd, SD Guthrie Bhd.
分析師認爲,可能受益於CPO價格上漲的上游棕櫚油公司是合生種植園控股有限公司、塔安控股有限公司、SD Guthrie Bhd。
On Nov 12, Hap Seng Plantations' stock traded at RM2.07 as at 2:11pm, up three sen from its previous settlement of RM2.04 on Monday. Towards closing, the counter traded up, gaining 23 sen intraday to settle at RM2.27. Today, as at 12:04pm, Hap Seng Plantations' stock stood at RM2.14, down 13 sen from its previous closing of RM2.27 recorded yesterday. (Stock updates from Bursa Malaysia)
11月12日,合生種植園的股票截至下午2點11分的交易價格爲2.07令吉,較週一的2.04令吉上漲了三仙。臨近收盤,該股上漲,盤中上漲23仙,收於2.27令吉。今天,截至下午12點04分,合成種植園的股票爲2.14令吉,較昨天創下的2.27令吉的收盤價下跌了13仙。(來自馬來西亞證券交易所的最新股票)
As at 12:11pm Nov 13, Ta Ann's shares traded at RM4.61, up two sen from its previous closing of RM4.59.
截至11月13日下午12點11分,Ta Ann的股票交易價格爲4.61令吉,較之前的收盤價4.59令吉上漲了兩仙。
As at 12:13pm Nov 13, SD Guthrie's stock traded at RM5.04, down 11 sen from its previous closing of RM5.15.
截至11月13日下午12點13分,SD Guthrie的股票交易價格爲5.04令吉,較之前的收盤價5.15令吉下跌11仙。
CGS remains NEUTRAL on the sector given that the downstream operations of integrated companies, such as Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd (KLK) and IOI Corporation Bhd, still face challenges amid high feedstock prices. For mid-size upstream players, analysts expect potential positive earnings surprises and higher dividend payouts.
鑑於吉隆坡甲洞有限公司(KLK)和IOI Corporation Bhd等綜合公司的下游業務在原料價格居高不下仍面臨挑戰,CGS對該行業保持中立。對於中型上游參與者,分析師預計潛在的盈利意外和更高的股息支出。
Analysts noted that while the speakers' projection aligns with its view that CPO prices will stay elevated in the first six months of 2025, particularly in the first quarter, driven by tight palm oil supply and strong seasonal demand from Chinese New Year and Ramadan. However, the speakers' upbeat CPO projection, coupled with the recent rally of CPO prices to close to RM5,000/tonne, now puts CGS' 2024 and 2025 earnings estimates on the conservative side as the earnings forecast figures are based on an average CPO price of RM4,000/tonne.
分析師指出,儘管發言人的預測與其觀點一致,即受棕櫚油供應緊張以及農曆新年和齋月季節性需求強勁的推動,2025年前六個月,尤其是在第一季度,CPO價格將保持高位。但是,發言人樂觀的CPO預測,加上最近CPO價格上漲至接近每噸5,000令吉,現在使CGS對2024年和2025年的收益估計偏向保守,因爲收益預測數據基於每噸4,000令吉的平均CPO價格。
CPO price is now at a premium over soybean oil and sunflower oil. Typically, palm oil is the cheapest of the major vegetable oils. This shift in pricing is notable, particularly in some destination markets where CPO has been more expensive than other vegetable oils since April to May 2024.
CPO價格現在高於豆油和葵花籽油。通常,棕櫚油是主要植物油中最便宜的。這種定價變化顯而易見,尤其是在一些目的地市場,自2024年4月至5月以來,CPO比其他植物油更昂貴。
In details, conference speakers cited the below factors as driving the increase in CPO prices in the first half of 2025.
詳細而言,會議發言人列舉了以下因素推動了2025年上半年CPO價格的上漲。
a) Stronger biodiesel demand from Indonesia. The Indonesian government's B40 mandate, set to take effect in January 2025, is expected to tighten palm oil supply. With the full implementation of B40, Indonesia's palm oil consumption could increase by 2 million tonnes to 14 million tonnes, or around 17% of global palm oil production for 2025. The government aims to implement B50 by 2028, further boosting demand.
a) 印度尼西亞對生物柴油的需求增加。印度尼西亞政府的B40授權定於2025年1月生效,預計將收緊棕櫚油供應。隨着B40的全面實施,印度尼西亞的棕櫚油消費量可能會增加200萬噸,達到1400萬噸,約佔2025年全球棕櫚油產量的17%。政府的目標是到2028年實施B50,進一步提振需求。
The current Indonesia B35 biodiesel programme uses palm oil as feedstock, with the country's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources expecting 11.7m tonnes of CPO to be consumed for this purpose in 2024. This translates into 24% of Indonesia's palm oil consumption and 13% of global palm oil consumption, based on CGS' estimates.
印度尼西亞目前的B35生物柴油計劃使用棕櫚油作爲原料,該國能源和礦產資源部預計,到2024年,將爲此目的消耗1170萬噸CPO。根據CGS的估計,這意味着印度尼西亞棕櫚油消費量的24%和全球棕櫚油消費量的13%。
b) Slower palm oil production growth. The lower-than-expected production growth from Indonesia and Thailand should support palm oil prices and most of the speakers projected 2024 Indonesia palm oil production to decline by 4-8% year-on-year (YoY). For 2025, the speakers expect Indonesia production growth of 2-4% YoY while projecting flat production growth in 2025 for Malaysia.
b) 棕櫚油產量增長放緩。印度尼西亞和泰國的產量增長低於預期,這將支撐棕櫚油價格,大多數發言者預計2024年印度尼西亞棕櫚油產量將同比下降4-8%。發言人預計2025年印度尼西亞的產量將同比增長2-4%,同時預計2025年馬來西亞的產量將持平增長。
c) Tight supply in other vegetable oils and fats. The global supply of sunflower and rapeseed oil is expected to decrease YoY in 2025. While soybean production is likely to remain strong, soybean oil output may not increase at the same pace due to an oversupply of soybean meal, which limits the availability of soybean oil as a by-product.
c) 其他植物油和脂肪供應緊張。預計到2025年,向日葵油和菜籽油的全球供應量將同比下降。儘管大豆產量可能保持強勁,但由於大豆粉供過於求,大豆油產量可能不會以同樣的速度增長,這限制了大豆油作爲副產品的供應。
Dorab Mistry from Godrej International projects a 3 million-tonne increase in global vegetable oil supply for 2024 and 2025, and demand growth of 6.5 million tonnes.
來自Godrej International的Dorab Mistry預計,到2024年和2025年,全球植物油供應量將增加300萬噸,需求將增長650萬噸。
(d) The number of funds trading in the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) Palm futures is growing. The open interests of DCE palm futures amounted to nearly 800,000 contacts, only slightly below the highs recorded in July.
(d) 在大連商品交易所(DCE)棕櫚期貨交易的基金數量正在增加。DCE棕櫚期貨的未平倉合約爲近80萬個聯繫人,僅略低於7月份的高點。
Mistry from Godrej International and Ryan Chen from Cargill Investment China both mentioned that the recent surge in CPO prices may have been partially driven by increased participation of non-commercial players in Dalian and Bursa Malaysia palm futures.
來自Godrej International的Mistry和嘉吉投資中國公司的Ryan Chen都提到,最近CPO價格的上漲可能部分是由非商業參與者對大連和馬來西亞交易所棕櫚期貨的參與度增加所推動的。
- Source: Affin Bank Bhd-hosted Propelling Malaysia Forward Conference 2024 held in Penang on Nov 11, 2024. ︎
- Source: RHB Investment Bank Bhd-issued company update IOI Corp : Decent Valuations Amid Higher CPO Price; BUY (12 Nov 2024) ︎
- 資料來源:Afin Bank BHD主辦的2024年推動馬來西亞前進會議,於2024年11月11日在檳城舉行。
- 來源:印度盧比投資銀行巴哈德發佈的最新公司IOI Corp:在CPO價格上漲的情況下估值不錯;買入(2024年11月12日)︎