Global trend culture is interconnected, and domestic brands are setting sail overseas; super platforms are reshaping offline services, while emerging experiences are rapidly blooming; travel consumption has both resilience and growth potential, with an expansion cycle focusing on strong alpha leaders.
According to the Zhitong Finance App, Kaiyuan Securities released a research report that focuses on the domestic market, where social values are becoming diverse and inclusive. The subculture is entering the mainstream, the domestic IP industry is enhancing and innovating various categories and play styles, and the domestic pan-entertainment trend toy market is expected to stay vibrant. The emerging service industry is growing rapidly, and small and medium-sized businesses are increasingly relying on platform online traffic and operational empowerment, focusing on new online models such as foot massage, pet services, home services, and the automotive aftermarket. For travel consumption, top-level design encourages the development of the tourism economy, with the generation Z and silver economy demographics continuing to expand, indicating medium to long-term growth potential in the tourism large cap; the demand side favors leisure travel, which is fragmented and seeking cost-effectiveness, with increasing online penetration.
The major viewpoints of Open source Securities are as follows:
Trend consumption: Global trend culture is interconnected, and domestic brands are setting sail overseas.
IP: With a global perspective and an economic transition period, there is a resonance in self-indulgent spiritual needs. The world is entering an era where toys are becoming adult-oriented, categories are becoming mainstream, and female demand is upgrading. In the first three quarters of 2024, global toy leaders have demonstrated multi-quarter high growth, confirming market vitality. Relying on the advantages of the domestic supply chain and excelling in localized IP operations combined with precise channel expansion strategies, pop mart is expected to see substantial growth in overseas performance across all channels, benchmarked against overseas giants like Lego, with significant potential for overseas IP momentum, brand influence, and channel expansion. Focusing on the domestic market, social values are shifting towards diversity and inclusion, the subculture is coming into public view, and the domestic IP industry is elevating by continuously innovating categories and play styles. The medium-term outlook for the domestic pan-entertainment trendy toy market is expected to remain vibrant. Beneficial symbols include pop mart (09992) and Huali Technology (301011.SZ).
Trend smart clothing: The second-generation product Ray-Ban Meta, a collaboration between Meta and Ray-Ban, exceeded sales expectations, empowering aesthetics through AI and promoting glasses adoption. Recently, Rokid announced it will hold the Rokid Jungle 2024 partner and new product launch event on November 18. From Rokid's official poster, BOLON is expected to collaborate with Rokid to launch a new eyewear product. BOLON, as a French fashion brand, targets a younger audience, where fashion trends and smart clothing are becoming mainstream. Beneficial symbols include doctorglasses chain (300622.SZ) and Jiayin Intelligent.
AI + education: Education is one of the most direct and logical applications of the AI wave. Looking back at the successful examples of Duolingo combining AI, there is a broad prospect for AI applications in Chinese education companies, with beneficial symbols being tal education (ATL.US), Doushen Education (300010.SZ), beijing shengtong printing (002559.SZ), and special treat Kaiyuan (300338.SZ).
Medical beauty going overseas, rise of domestic brands: From raw material exports to brand exports, companies in advantageous tracks like collagen are leading the way in going overseas, with the Southeast Asian market likely to become the first stop for Chinese medical beauty brands going global. On November 5, Jinbo Biological announced that its subcutaneous filler obtained registration from Vietnam's Class D medical device, and additionally, Kefu Beauty was officially launched on Tiktok in Malaysia and Singapore. Beneficial symbols include Jinbo Biological (832982.BJ) and Juzi Biological (02367).
Emerging consumer trends: super platforms are reshaping offline services, and new experiences are accelerating to bloom.
Service consumption: From January to September 2024, domestic service retail sales increased by 6.7% year-on-year, outpacing the growth rate of commodity retail sales by 3.7 percentage points during the same period. In August 2024, the State Council issued the "Opinions on Promoting High-Quality Development of Service Consumption." The policy's "Cupid Golden Arrow" directly targets service consumption, with high elasticity and strong resilience. The online penetration of the service industry has broad space for improvement, and super platforms are expected to help small and medium-sized businesses restructure offline service formats. Instant retail: The instant retail market is in a period of rapid growth. Instant retail demand is shifting from "fresh" to "everything at home," and from "timely" to "seasonal." A new model of front-end warehouses is emerging at the retail end, while giants at the platform end are increasing their layout, and there is significant demand for delivery services at the fulfillment end. Benefitting symbols: dingdong (DDL.US), SF Express (09699).
Emerging formats: The growth rate of emerging service industries is fast, with small and medium-sized businesses relying more on platform online traffic and operational empowerment, focusing on online new species such as foot massage, pet services, home services, and the auto aftermarket. Benefitting symbol: Meituan (03690).
Dining services: In 2024, the supply of the dining industry continues to increase, and competition intensifies. Meituan empowers businesses comprehensively to increase their market share. New coffee and light meals are emerging alongside each other, focusing on health-oriented dining pioneers. Benefitting symbol: yum china (09987).
Travel consumption: Recognizing both resilience and growth, the focus on strong Alpha leaders during the expansion cycle.
Top-level design encourages the development of the tourism economy, and the incremental population such as Generation Z and the silver-haired class continues to expand, giving the travel large cap medium to long-term growth potential; on the demand side, leisure tourism clearly dominates, presenting fragmentation and a pursuit of cost-effectiveness, with accelerated online penetration. The B-end underlying supply is entering a new expansion cycle, while competition for C-end customers in hotel and travel increases significantly amid homogeneity challenges, putting pressure on the leading businesses with high operational efficiency bases. Focus on subsequent trends regarding the refined operations of leading businesses, ramping up incremental projects, normalizing expenses, and strengthening brand barriers. Relevant entities include changbai mountain tourism (603099.SH), western region tourism (300859.SZ), anhui jiuhuashan tourism development (603199.SH), and atour lifestyle holdings (ATAT.US).
The flow advantages of OTA channels are reinforced, the platform's voice has significantly increased, the domestic landscape is becoming stable, and operational efficiency improvements have been consistently delivered for several consecutive quarters. Subsequently, the reduction of losses from new businesses is expected to gradually accelerate. Benefitting symbols: Trip.com (00780), tongchengtravel (00780).
In addition, pay attention to the expected rise of Hainan's customs clearance in 2025, bringing thematic investment opportunities. Benefitting symbols: hainan airport infrastructure (600515.SH), china tourism group duty free corporation (601888.SH), and hainan haiqi transportation group (603069.SH).
Risk warning: fluctuations in the domestic and global macro economy; projects not being implemented as expected; retail performance not meeting expectations; intensified industry competition from new entrants or existing competitors, etc.
