According to the star daily on November 13 (reporter Qiu Siyu), the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has returned to 0.08 million yuan/ton.

Data released by shanghai ganglian e-commerce holdings shows that today (November 13), the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose by 3500 yuan compared to the previous day, with an average price of 0.081 million yuan/ton. Since reaching a low of 0.0715 million yuan/ton on October 24, lithium prices have continued to rise strongly.

Boosted by this news, the lithium ore sector in A-shares became active. As of today's close on November 13, yongxing special materials technology and ganfenglithium rose more than 6%, with tianqi lithium corporation and sinomine resource group also following suit.

Both the supply and demand sides show signs of improvement.

Regarding the strong lithium price trend, today (November 13), a reporter from the star daily contacted chengxin lithium group’s securities office as an investor. Relevant personnel stated, "The company's product prices will adjust according to market price fluctuations. Lithium carbonate prices have fluctuated greatly in the past two years, and future trends in lithium carbonate prices are unpredictable."

Regarding the future trend of lithium prices, ganfenglithium stated, "The company remains optimistic about the medium to long-term demand for lithium in the industry. On the other hand, as lithium prices continue to decline, industry supply capacity is gradually being cleared. Therefore, under the current lithium price context, we expect the supply growth rate of lithium resources next year to remain low. The characteristics of the lithium industry’s supply and demand are both cyclical and growth-oriented."

In terms of overall inventory, tianqi lithium corporation stated in the latest disclosed institutional research summary that at the end of the third quarter, its lithium concentrate and lithium salt inventory had declined compared to the mid-year of 2024 and the end of 2023.

Regarding the reasons behind the price increase, the research team of the new energy division of shanghai ganglian e-commerce holdings analyzed for the reporters of the star daily, stating, "The core of this round of rising prices is that the short-term demand exceeding expectations has alleviated the continuous inventory pressure, thus promoting the market to adjust the price level of this product."

The reporters from the star daily noted through multiple interviews that most analysts in the market agreed on the view of improvements on both the supply and demand sides.

On the demand side, there have been bullish signals in recent times for new energy vehicles and energy storage terminals.

In terms of new energy vehicles, according to the latest data from the china association of automobile manufacturers on November 11, this year, in October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.463 million and 1.43 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 48% and 49.6%; from January to October this year, the sales of new energy vehicle models accounted for 39.6% of the total sales of automobile new models. Coupled with the push from the old-for-new policy and the support from multiple auto exhibitions and promotional activities, the "golden September and silver October" peak season effect in the autos industry is expected to continue.

In terms of energy storage, overseas demand remains relatively strong. Analyst shao wanqi from gtja futures stated, "The large storage completion rate in the usa has improved more than expected, the progress of planned projects has accelerated, and coupled with the gradually increasing installation of large storage in europe, the planned incremental scale in emerging countries continues. " At the same time, with the year-end rush for grid connection in energy storage, the overall energy storage demand is showing an upward trend.

On the supply side, there has been a temporary decline. In October this year, domestic lithium carbonate production was 0.059 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.6%. The research team of the new energy division of shanghai ganglian e-commerce holdings analyzed for the reporters of the star daily, stating, "According to the survey at the beginning of the month, the estimated domestic lithium carbonate production for November is 0.0589 million tons, basically the same as in October. Currently, there is no motivation for production increases; shipping prices remain relatively fixed, resulting in a balance between production and sales."

Overseas, gtja futures indicated that in October, shipments of lithium from australia declined, and supply is expected to tighten in the future, with a supply-demand gap anticipated in the lithium carbonate market in November. At the same time, with long-term contracts to be signed by 2025 approaching, upstream companies' willingness to maintain prices has increased, making it more difficult for downstream contracts, and some downstream companies may turn to the spot market to stock up early, with spot prices remaining firm.

Visiting professor zhang xiang from yellow river technology college also stated to the reporters of the star daily, "The current rise in lithium prices is mainly due to some overseas suppliers reducing their production plans, coupled with the fact that the downstream new energy vehicle sector is still in a growth phase, thus leading to price increases."

Industry opinions are now divided; the long-term support for lithium prices may be insufficient.

There is no doubt that recently, both supply and demand for battery-grade lithium carbonate have improved, but some analysts have indicated to the Star Daily that the rise in lithium prices is not demand-driven.

In the view of Mo Ke, founder of True Lithium Research, this increase is not driven by demand but by capital disruptions.

"There is almost a three-month time lag between the procurement of lithium products and the production of batteries. The lithium products needed for current battery production were procured in August." Mo Ke explained to the Star Daily reporter: "The lithium products being procured now are almost corresponding to February (2025) battery production, at which time the Spring Festival factors have not yet been resolved, and production will not be vigorous."

Regarding the supply side, Mo Ke believes that while the shipment volume of lithium products has indeed declined, supply is still sufficiently abundant and is currently far greater than demand.

In terms of overall inventory destocking, the research team from Shanghai Ganglian's new energy division indicated to the Star Daily reporter, "The inventory destocking situation in November exceeded expectations. By the end of December, China's total inventory of lithium carbonate is expected to be less than 0.08 million tons. It is expected that lithium carbonate will no longer be a 'severely oversupplied product' but will trend towards a state of tight balance throughout the year."

Looking ahead to the market, Mo Ke believes that the trend of lithium prices is not optimistic. He stated, "Overall, next year will be stable with a decline; the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate may drop below 0.06 million yuan/ton, and it will take about another year to clear excess capacity." Analysts from GTJA Futures believe that the potential for upward movement in the market is expected to be limited.

The key point that determines the trend of lithium carbonate prices may depend on whether the improvements on both the supply and demand sides are sustainable.

The research team of the new energy department of shanghai ganglian e-commerce holdings believes that there is still support for prices in the short term before a turning point of weakening demand occurs. Future price assessments will need to continuously monitor the persistence of strengthening demand, and in the long run, there is still a possibility of supply surplus throughout next year.