Recently, Zeng Yuqun, founder and chairman of battery giant Ningde Times, said in an interview with Reuters that Musk's bet on the 4680 cylindrical battery “will fail and will never succeed.”

Currently, Tesla's autonomous driving technology still has great uncertainty in terms of safety. Zeng Yuqun said, “Musk may think it will take five years, but if you believe what he said will take two years, then you are in big trouble.”

Zeng Yuqun predicted that the business of developing and managing “zero carbon” power grids during the Ningde era may be “ten times” larger than supplying electric vehicle batteries.

Earlier in September, Zeng Yuqun also pointed out that the European battery manufacturing industry is facing three major challenges: inadequate design, process flow, and equipment. This makes it impossible for Europe and America to make good batteries.

Zeng Yuqun: Musk doesn't know how to make batteries

Tesla chose to rely on cameras and artificial intelligence for autonomous driving technology in order to reduce costs and achieve high sales.

This strategy differs from the approach of many competitors, which prefer to use multiple layers of redundant technology on autonomous vehicles to ensure greater safety and use them to operate taxis or delivery services.

During the interview, Zeng Yuqun clearly raised his questions about the 4680 cylindrical battery used by Tesla. In his opinion, Musk's bet on a cylindrical battery (i.e. 4680) “will fail and will never work.” He had an exchange with Musk in Beijing in April.

“We had a very intense debate. He was silent because he didn't know how to make a battery. It's about electrochemistry, and he's good at chips, software, hardware, and mechanics.”

With its 46mm diameter and 80mm height, the 4680 battery represents Tesla's next-generation battery technology. The core highlights of this battery technology include large cells, omnidirectional ear design, and dry battery technology, which aims to improve energy density, fast charging advantages, and safety while reducing battery costs.

Zeng Yuqun said that the goal of the Ningde era was to reinvent itself as a green energy supplier and drastically reduce the cost of developing electric vehicles, thereby disrupting the economic model of the automotive industry that drives its growth. Zeng Yuqun predicts that the business of developing and managing “zero carbon” power grids may be “ten times” larger than supplying electric vehicle batteries.

“Zero-carbon” grid systems include solar, wind, energy storage, and electric vehicle transmission to the grid (V2G) systems. In 2023, Ningde Era's power battery system revenue reached 285.3 billion yuan, an increase of 20.57% over the previous year — if Zeng Yuqun can achieve his “tenfold” vision, the scale of Ningde Era's “zero carbon power grid” business may exceed 3 trillion yuan.

He said that the goal of the Ningde era was to build a large-scale independent energy system, enough to power a large data center or even a city.

Musk's estimates of R&D time are too aggressive

Zeng Yuqun also revealed that Musk often gives unrealistic estimates of development time, such as technology that should have taken five years to complete, and he may claim that it will be realized within two years.

“I asked him why, and he told me he wanted to push people.”

Musk recently promised to launch fully autonomous Model 3 and Model Y models in 2025, and plans to release an autonomous “Cybercab” model without a steering wheel or pedals in 2026.

Although Tesla's technical route and strategic goals have attracted a large amount of investor attention, Musk's consistent “aggressive” promises may make investors skeptical about the fulfillment of these promises. Especially in a context where the development of Tesla's autonomous driving technology has taken many years and is not yet fully mature.

Zeng Yuqun said:

“He himself may think it will take five years, but if you believe what he said it will take two years, then you're in big trouble.”