如果油价跌至每桶40美元，将意味着较目前价格下跌约40%。全球基准布伦特原油目前的交易价格为每桶72美元，而美国WTI原油期货价格约为每桶68美元。
Market observers indicate that if the oil consortium OPEC+ cancels existing production cuts, crude oil prices could plummet significantly.
Tom Kloza, the global energy analyst at oil price reporting agency OPIS, stated: "Concerns about oil prices in 2025 are greater than in any year since 2010 that I can recall."
"If OPEC cancels production cuts without reaching any real agreement to control output, oil prices could fall to $30 or $40 per barrel. Their market share has indeed been shrinking over the years."
A drop in oil prices to $40 per barrel would mean a reduction of about 40% from current prices. The global benchmark Brent crude is currently trading at $72 per barrel, while the usa WTI crude futures price is about $68 per barrel.
Henning Gloystein, the director of energy, climate, and resources at chang chun eurasia group, stated that considering the growth of oil demand next year may not exceed 1 million barrels per day, the complete lifting of the OPEC+ production cut agreement in 2025 "would undoubtedly see crude oil prices plummet significantly, possibly to $40 per barrel."
Similarly, Saul Kavonic, a senior energy analyst at MST Marquee, believes that if OPEC+ relaxes production cuts without considering demand, it would "effectively be equivalent to a price war for market share, which could drive oil prices to their lowest levels since the COVID-19 pandemic."
However, analysts suggest that the consortium is more likely to choose a gradual exit from production cuts early next year rather than an immediate full withdrawal.
Even if OPEC+ does not lift production cuts, the future of oil prices could still collapse. Citigroup analysts expect the average price of Brent crude oil to fall to $60 per barrel next year.
Citigroup analysts stated in an interview that the impending government of President Trump, elected in the USA, further exacerbates the bearish outlook, as his return is associated by some with potential trade conflicts.
"If we really do enter a trade war - many economists believe a trade war is possible, we could see a significant drop in prices," said Klosa from OPIS.
Trump has also touted a policy to US producers, vowing to cut energy prices by half.
Matt Smith, chief oil analyst at Kpler, stated that if retail gasoline prices experience a similar situation, oil prices need to drop to "below $40 per barrel."
