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Yadong Group Holdings Limited's (HKG:1795) 38% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Simply Wall St ·  Nov 14, 2024 06:13

The Yadong Group Holdings Limited (HKG:1795) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 38%. Still, the 30-day jump doesn't change the fact that longer term shareholders have seen their stock decimated by the 69% share price drop in the last twelve months.

After such a large jump in price, Yadong Group Holdings may be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 16.8x, since almost half of all companies in Hong Kong have P/E ratios under 9x and even P/E's lower than 5x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

With earnings growth that's exceedingly strong of late, Yadong Group Holdings has been doing very well. The P/E is probably high because investors think this strong earnings growth will be enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

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SEHK:1795 Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry November 13th 2024
We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Yadong Group Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as Yadong Group Holdings' is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 60%. Despite this strong recent growth, it's still struggling to catch up as its three-year EPS frustratingly shrank by 13% overall. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 23% shows it's an unpleasant look.

In light of this, it's alarming that Yadong Group Holdings' P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On Yadong Group Holdings' P/E

Shares in Yadong Group Holdings have built up some good momentum lately, which has really inflated its P/E. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We've established that Yadong Group Holdings currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Yadong Group Holdings (1 is concerning) you should be aware of.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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