届时，他也将有时间消化北京时间周四21:30公布的10月份PPI报告，该报告将更直接地影响美联储青睐的通胀指标PCE。本月晚些时候将公布PCE。The annualized increase in US CPI last month was in line with expectations. On Wednesday, it boosted the Wall Street Index and pushed the dollar against the yen to a level that worried the Bank of Japan.
The CPI report, particularly the increase in the annual rate, reinforces the view that although the Fed has reason to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points at its December meeting, if the inflation data continues to move in the wrong direction, the Fed may reconsider the pace of interest rate cuts in 2025. After all, the Federal Reserve has approved a full one-percent rate cut since September.
At 4:00 a.m. on Friday, Beijing time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech on the economic outlook, followed by a question-and-answer session. At that time, the market will learn how the Federal Reserve will explain the fourth consecutive monthly increase in CPI in October and the rise in year-on-year inflation to 2.6% from 2.4% in September.
At that time, he will also have time to digest the October PPI report released at 21:30 Beijing time on Thursday. The report will more directly affect PCE, an inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve. The PCE will be announced later this month.
The dollar rose to 156.132 against the yen, the highest level since July 23. Many market participants believe this was the trigger for verbal intervention by the Japanese authorities.
At this point, the prospects for the Federal Reserve to slow down its easing policy seem more important than the schedule for the Bank of Japan to decide to raise interest rates. Even a sharp rise in Japan's October wholesale inflation data released on Wednesday cannot change this view.
Until recently, Japan faced a greater risk of deflation than inflation. The Bank of Japan ended negative interest rates in March, and Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized preparations to raise interest rates again. The last time interest rates were raised in July due to inflation and the risk of weakening yen.
